Rasmussen is out and it shows Mark Warner with a strong lead -- 18 points -- over Jim Gilmore. According to Rasmussen:
...this is the fifth consecutive survey to find Warner leading Gilmore by a 15-20 percentage point margin. In all five surveys, Warner's support has ranged from 53% to 57%. Gilmore's support has also been consistent, ranging from 37% to 39%.
Sounds great, except check out this superb analysis by Ben Tribbett:
...If 4,000,000 Virginians vote this November, it will take an 80,000 vote margin for Mark Warner to win 51-49. That's close to his margin in his race for Governor. If Warner wins by 160,000 votes it will be a 52-48 race and that margin would be a record. It would take a 400,000 vote margin for Mark to win by more than 55-45 points, which is very unlikely...
The point is, this race is likely to tighten before it's all over. Sure, it's likely that Mark Warner will win in the end, but it's not a done deal. For that to take place, we're going to have to work hard and not get overconfident. Still, the Rasmussen poll is good news, and I'd certainly rather be where Mark Warner is right now than where Jim Gilmore is.
P.S. Another Rasmussen poll has Barack Obama trailing John McCain in Virginia by just 3 points, within the margin of error.
McCain is up by only 3 but he has 6 more percent support from his party beacuse he is the nominee. I think Obama will at least get to that level which would put him ahead. Plus with enough campaigning in Virgina he can tie himself in with Mark Warner.
Obama has a very real chance to win Virgina. This is super exiting!