Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: "Jim Webb as running mate"

By: Lowell
Published On: 5/8/2008 8:34:16 AM

This sums up my feelings very well (bolding added by me for emphasis):

Virginia Senator James Webb should be the Democratic candidate for vice-president.

[...]

Webb fits Obama's true needs. The Illinois Senator's greatest deficiency is his lack of experience in foreign policy and military security. Clinton has made that her chief point of attack -- as in the now-classic "3 A.M. telephone" ad -- and this area is obviously McCain's greatest strength. There is no way for Obama to match McCain, even if he could manufacture some "sniper fire," but the right running mate could give him a measure of credibility, in much the same way as Cheney helped Bush.

[...]

Webb also would bring specific political advantages to the Democratic ticket. His rural roots, vigorous language and championing of working class values would compensate for Obama's evident weaknesses among these voters. Webb provides a populist platform on corporate regulation, trade, taxation and health care that would further extend the party's appeal to its lower-income base. Born in Missouri, educated in Nebraska, California and the Naval Academy in Maryland, he encapsulates a national electoral appeal. Finally, to the limited extent that state residence matters, he would help to switch Virginia into the Democratic column for the first election since 1964.

That largely sums it up. I'd add that Webb has argued, "the greatest realignment in modern politics would take place rather quickly if the right national leader found a way to bring the Scots-Irish and African Americans to the same table."  Well, hmmm...you think that Barack Obama and Jim Webb might do the trick here? :)

Second, I would emphasize the fact that Jim Webb not only has appeal to white, working class voters.  Jim Webb IS the white, working class.  And good luck to any Republican who tries to "Swift Boat" the Democratic ticket with Jim Webb on it.

One last point: if Hillary Clinton were leading the Democratic nomination for president, I'd also strongly recommend Jim Webb as her running mate, for the same reasons I do so for Barack Obama.  I'm reading Webb's new book now, and as I do, I keep thinking that this guy should actually be president, not vice president.  But, for now, I'll "settle" for Jim Webb as Barack Obama's running mate, and call it a day. :)


Comments



The thing I wonder about though... (ericy - 5/8/2008 8:42:37 AM)

If Webb becomes VP, then Kaine gets to pick someone who will at least temporarily hold the seat.  But really we should be thinking in terms of who can hold the seat in an actual election.   Unfortunately Mark Warner won't be available :-).  Who do we have that would be the strongest person for that seat??


How about... (Lowell - 5/8/2008 8:48:53 AM)
...Creigh Deeds or Brian Moran, whichever one doesn't win the governor nomination?  Or, how about Jody Wagner?  Thinking outside the box a bit, how about this guy?  Donald McEachin?  Chap Petersen?


A lot of these... (ericy - 5/8/2008 9:24:21 AM)

are political unknowns to the rest of the state.  I guess that's my point - we are going to have to bring someone up from the minors and see how they do in the majors.  I don't know any of them well enough to be able to say which of these would be ready for the rigors of a statewide campaign.

The Republicans don't have the same issues.  Allen could try and recapture "his" seat, or you could have Gilmore or Tom Davis take a shot at it.  Yes, they are all deeply flawed in some way or another, but all 3 already have some degree of statewide recognition.



"This guy" (legacyofmarshall - 5/8/2008 9:58:23 AM)
Has a name - Aneesh Chopra - he's a major badass - extremely intelligent.

But yeah, it would need to be someone more well-known.  I think Moran and Deeds are both quite well known.  Especially Deeds.  In fact, given that Deeds ran statewide, and currently Moran's Governor bid is doing a lot better - I think that would be an excellent deal.

Plus, whichever way - Mark Warner would then become the senior Senator from Virginia, which he indeed deserves.



A general response (aznew - 5/8/2008 10:14:41 AM)
First, Deeds is certainly known state-wide. Moran is certainly known among politically-involved people statewide.

Second, I doubt either Gilmore or Davis have the political chops right now to win a state-wide election, Gimore because he too conservative, and Davis because he is probably too liberal to get nominated, but more importantly because both have records that are not flattering.

I think Allen would be a tough candidate, though, but that is equally the case whether the Democratic candidate is Webb or someone else. Webb's in-state approval is not as high as it is on this blog. As has been discussed here, I suspect it has to do with the fact that his office just doesn't seem well-run. I write a dumb-ass column for a publication here in Charlottesville -- not political -- and the few times I have called Webb's office for help, I have never even had a call returned. I suspect many constituents have had a similar experience.

But all this pales to what would really control such an appointment: whether Kaine himself would have designs on the seat should Webb become VP. If so, then Moran and Deeds are out.  



Agreed . . . (JPTERP - 5/8/2008 11:56:41 AM)
on the office management skills (at least on the customer service end).  

There is someone answering the phones, but the response time on communications is pretty poor.  

Allen's office had a similar issue, but then again, what happened to Allen in 2006?  On the margins in an election constituent communications matters in a big way.  John Warner's people have it down to a science.  Webb should be taking notes -- or hiring Warner's office manager.



agreed (Adam Parkhomenko - 5/8/2008 11:19:19 AM)
Thats the biggest issue here. You can put anyone, but who can really win statewide 2 years later.


Boucher or Bobby Scott . . . (JPTERP - 5/8/2008 12:07:56 PM)
I think Scott is content to remain as a Reps.; not sure what Boucher's interests are -- but in a statewide election he'd probably win the southwest corner, and the population centers in the north, the center and along the coast.  He'd be a safer pick than Deeds or Moran at this stage.


Does Webb want it? (Eric - 5/8/2008 10:10:04 AM)
I mentioned his lack of enthusiasm for campaigning yesterday, but the bigger picture question is if he really wants to be in that position.  As you mentioned about his book - where does he find the time to write a book, raise a young child, and be a Senator?  Being thrown into the mix of the executive branch at the VP level would be even more demanding of his time and more constraining in so many ways (e.g. Does the Secret Service allow VP's to carry their own guns whenever they want?).

I've even had feelings from time to time that he might be a one termer (of his own choosing).  At this rate he'd certainly be re-elected if he ran, but with his family and other interests (like writing) I can't help but wonder if he saw this as a calling to help get our Country back on track and once that happens he'll be done.

Is four years in the executive grinder something that he would really want to do given his other interests?  Does he have higher political goals that VP would help him achieve or is he serving his country in a time of need?

For the record, I do agree with the analysis that he would be a good addition to the ticket (with previously noted concerns about campaigning) and I also think he would make a good VP and would compliment Obama very well.  I also think he's doing a great job in the Senate and that he'd continue to do so and I'm equally happy, if not more so, with him doing that job.

So then it comes back to the question of whether or not he really wants to go that direction.



He'll Have Time to Write as Veep (Matt H - 5/8/2008 10:50:06 AM)
Look at how much time Cheney has had to really screw up the country and lobby for the energy industry as vice president.


Short answer. (Lowell - 5/8/2008 11:00:14 AM)
Yes.  Longer answer: if Barack Obama comes to Jim Webb and says, "Jim, I need you...your country needs you...I'll rely on you heavily for your national security, foreign policy and economic knowledge/expertise," I can't imagine Jim Webb saying "sorry, I got better things to do."


If Webb wants it, then I say great (True Blue - 5/8/2008 12:02:11 PM)
But running for Vice President is going to require a TON of traveling and, well, campaigning.  Webb wasn't always the most enthusiastic campaigner.  Granted, he's fantastic on the news/talk show circuit (he's certainly got that down pat), but he should ask Mark Warner about the level of travel involved.

That said, I am available to serve as your "body guy" for the campaign, "Mr. Vice President."



Speaking of that..... (virginialeftwing - 5/8/2008 10:24:16 AM)
One of my friends on MySpace set this account up for this very purpose back before Christmas

http://www.myspace.com/jim_web...

Personally, I think he would be a great VP for Obama, noting as you said that he can connect to the working class of America.



Im not so sure.... (FINKS - 5/8/2008 10:42:42 AM)
I am extremely proud of the work Webb has done in the senate, but I'm not so sure he would be a good vp pick. He did horrible with women in Virginia when he ran for senate. It was because of his quotes about women cadets from the 80's. Somehow I don't think the Obama camp would want to lose significant amounts of women voters to pick up the working class voters Webb MIGHT bring.


Recent polls belie that suggestion (Catzmaw - 5/8/2008 12:05:07 PM)
since Webb is actually doing better in those polls than he is among men.  The Allen campaign tried every dirty trick in the book to make it look like Webb hates women, but the fact is that women like what he has to say on a lot of different levels.  His stands on the GI Bill, health care, the incarceration crisis, fair trade, labor, and yes, his aura of strength and determination coupled with his obvious interest in just makes people tick actually resonate pretty well with women.  A well-run campaign (and there's nothing showing that Obama's people don't know how to run a campaign well) would point out those strengths.  I just don't see McCain going after Webb the way Allen did, either.  He and Webb have a long history together and though McCain has turned into Captain Pander I still think there's a part of him which would never allow him to get down in the muck and try to throw it on Webb.  He respects Webb too much.  


Oops, I meant to say "better among women" (Catzmaw - 5/8/2008 12:09:34 PM)


The Obama Quarternity (Bernie Quigley - 5/8/2008 11:03:20 AM)
Webb for VP, for sure. Kathleen Sebelius, the best manager/governor in America, Chief of Staff. Sam Nunn, Sec. of State. Special asignment at Cabinet level: Bloomberg, Arnold, co-chairs on environment; an issue to be faced on the level of WW II. (And if Obama doesn't poach Bloomberg and Arnold - "post partisans" who fit either party and among the very best managers [with vision] in America, they will rebuild the Republican party by 2012).


Can't win if you don't run (jbvgoode - 5/8/2008 1:08:45 PM)
A Barack Obama/Jim Webb ticket would be a wonderful illustration of the value of following the "can't win if you don't run" principle of politics.  Obama's path to the Senate was cleared by not one, but two divorce-related scandels.  Wasn't he was an underdog for the party nomination before the first of the scandels hit?  Then Jack Ryan's exit from the general election left Alan Keyes (from Maryland!) as the only obstacle to a seat in the United States Senate.

Webb had to overcome a huge campaign spending disadvantage  just to win the right to face a popular Republican incumbent.  And then "macaca" and You Tube intersected and Webb prevailed.

       



I'm not sure either... (Arlington Mike - 5/8/2008 3:03:43 PM)
Jim Webb is a terrific Senator, and a man who speaks to a lot of Virginians. But I really have a lot of questions about him on a national scale.

Frankly, like it or not, there was a lot of fodder for attacks during the last campaign. All those issues will come up again, but with much more effort on research, finding negative voices, etc. It is a whole new level of scrutiny. I'm not sure the public in places like Ohio, or Florida, or New Mexico will like what it hears - the response could be very different than in Virginia. I'm also not sure if Webb is up to the scrutiny. Politics is invasive, and he seems like someone pretty protective of his private life.

Also, let's face it, Webb's "campaign style" isn't... one that lends itself to a VP slot. He's about personal connections, he's still a bit awkward on the stump, and he's not someone who really gets excited about campaigning. I think that worked fine for the 2006 election, but for a VP role, he needs to fire up the crowd, serve as the strongest, most convincing advocate of the presidential nominee, etc. I have no doubt he can speak strongly, but I've not seen him do it in that sort of manner.

It's a shame, because there is really a dividing line between the best candidate and the best office-holder. He'd be a great VP. But maybe not a great candidate.



to state the obvious (j_wyatt - 5/8/2008 3:28:45 PM)
When it comes to whether the prospective running mate needs to be a charismatic campaigner, does Senator Obama really require any help on that score?

Was -- and I hate to even type the name -- Cheney a charismatic campaigner?

The office of VP, first under Gore and then taken to the nth degree by aaargh Cheney, has become that of a COO.  Put another way, Webb could be Mister Inside while President Obama would be Mister Outside.

As to the hyperbole that "there was a lot of fodder for attacks during the last [senatorial] campaign", there was only one of any substance:  Webb's resistance, thirty some years ago, to women at the service academies and the military in general.  In typical Webb fashion, he dealt with it forthrightly in saying he was, back then, a macho ex-Marine fresh from combat and at the forefront of the culture wars, that he had changed his mind on the issue way back when and that his original stance has subsequently been proven completely wrong.

 



Agreed, there actually was NOT a "lot of fodder" (Lowell - 5/8/2008 5:03:06 PM)
for attacks against Webb.  Mainly, it was just a bunch of complete garbage dredged up from Dick Wad(hams)' Rovian, smearmongering mind.


Perfect running mate (relawson - 5/8/2008 7:08:09 PM)
I can't imagine anyone better.  From strictly a political/demographic perspective I think he would appeal to the white males without a college education - because he isn't a "wine sipper".  Plus he has Reagan cred.

And of course he still appeals to those of us with college educations.  

I'm not sure how women feel about a "manly man" as VP.  But, they would have a softer Obama.

From a management of our country perspective (as opposed to the things that really don't matter like who women will fawn over the most) I think both bring alot to the table.



Go Jim! (Shenandoah Democrat - 5/8/2008 7:42:29 PM)
This is Webb's chance to really f*** over McCain for the BS McCain pulled on Webb's GI bill. I can't wait to see the match--Webb will beat McCain at his own game!! (sorry if that sounds poetic) It will be better than any Redskins game IMHO! I want to see McCain's goose cooked,well-done, bring him on! Go Jim!!


Why?!?!! (JamesBenjamin - 5/8/2008 9:10:13 PM)
Over and over again I see these posts and columns. Jim Webb is such a great Senator for Virginia, and (must I remind you?) he barely squeaked into office. I would so much rather keep him in the Senate than as a VP. There are so many other people who are just as good as him that can be VP, and we won't lose a Senate seat.


"so many other people..." (Lowell - 5/8/2008 9:34:57 PM)
Name one.


On paper, there are none (DanG - 5/9/2008 1:27:42 AM)
Not a single candidate is as perfect a fit for Obama on paper as Jim Webb.


Agreed. (Lowell - 5/9/2008 8:56:31 AM)
Jim Webb has more national security and military expertise/credibility/gravitas than any other Democrat that I can think of (with the possible exception of Gen. Wesley Clark).  Jim Webb brings a strong dose of economic populism to the ticket -- his "three Americas" formulation (the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer, the middle class getting squeezed), his appeal to fundamental fairness and justice, etc.  Actually, Webb doesn't just "appeal" to working class white citizens, he IS the prototypical working class white citizen.  Webb is also the classic "Reagan Democrat."  Whatever you may think of "Reagan Democrats," there are tens of millions of them, and if Democrats win them back, we become the majority party in this country for a long time to come.  Finally, Webb could help put Virginia in play this year, and that's nothing to sneeze at.  Even if, ultimately, Virginia doesn't vote for the Democratic ticket, just making it competitive forces the vastly underfunded Republicans to spend resources defending what was, until recently, a solid "red state" at the presidential level.

So, who among Democrats tops all that?!?



. (JamesBenjamin - 5/9/2008 12:05:14 PM)
I just think he'd be better in the Senate than on the ticket as VP. And I think Virginia is in play (for Obama anyway) even without Webb on the ticket. A few months ago (when our primary occured) Obama was tied with/beating Mcain in VA: http://www.electoral-vote.com/...

"Whatever you may think of 'Reagan Democrats'..." Hey there, watch yourself buddy, I am one! Or maybe I'm a "blue dog D" I'm not hip to all the political jargon these days.

I'm really not trying to stir up a fight here, I'm just stating my opinion.  



. (JamesBenjamin - 5/9/2008 12:06:42 PM)
Don't sound so angry Lowell!


What makes you think (Lowell - 5/9/2008 12:10:55 PM)
I'm angry?  I feel strongly that Webb would make -- by far -- Barack Obama's best running mate.  That's all.


okie dokie (JamesBenjamin - 5/9/2008 12:28:16 PM)
Just checking, I'm sort-of new here and it seems like today I've ruffled a few feathers.