In 1996, Republican Bob Dole lost the Presidency to Democrat Bill Clinton. He took some solace in winning a narrow victory to pick up Virginia?s thirteen electoral votes. His victory was assisted by a win in suburban Fairfax County ? the key to Northern Virginia. That same year, Republican John Warner broke open a close statewide contest by defeating Democrat Mark Warner by 53,000 votes in Fairfax ? more than half his statewide margin. Incumbent Republican Congressmen Frank Wolf and Tom Davis took that one better; they were re-elected over Democratic opponents in Fairfax by a two-to-one edge.The 1990?s were the high water mark for the Fairfax County Republicans. By the end of the decade, they held two of three Congressional and 8 of 13 House of Delegates seats. They began the 21st century by winning the County for George W. Bush.
Then the momentum shifted. Since 2001, Democrats have won every important contested election in Fairfax County (with an exception for two 2002 State Senate specials captured by Cuccinelli and O?Brien). John Kerry ? not exactly the world?s strongest candidate ? won Fairfax by 35,000 votes. Tim Kaine held Jerry Kilgore under 40% of the vote, an unprecedented trouncing in a large, diverse jurisdiction like Fairfax.
What happened?
It wasn?t one thing. It was three things.
1. Demographic Change. Take it from someone who grew up in Fairfax in the Seventies (a.k.a. ?the Wonder Years?) and graduated from Fairfax High School in 1986. This is not the same community our parents raised us in. The most evident change is in the school system, which is nearing 40% minority with a significant foreign-language component. The minority population, driven especially by the Asian and Hispanic components, has changed the political dynamic as well. While it is impossible to generalize for each ethnic group or the success of various politicians in honing their message (some adjusted, some did not), the bottom line is that a one-third minority vote in each election has changed the results of the County. And it generally helps the D?s.
2. Change in the Job Base. When I was growing up, a lot of Dads (and some Moms) worked at the Pentagon. It was our local industry. In the Reagan era, the trend was strengthened by the array of defense contractors who took root around the Beltway. These folks pretty much all voted Republican and they came out for Reagan, Bush, Dole and Bush (in that order). Between 1999 and 2001, a funny thing happened. It was called the Internet boom. Tens of thousands of jobs were created, and most the folks that came for these jobs settled in Fairfax County. Yes, the boom eventually fell flat. But the industry of Northern Virginia had changed forever. For the first time, the job growth was not in defense-related industry, it was in high tech and communications. That trend has continued to the present day. The change in voting patterns can be summed up thus: a retired military couple moves out, a new family with kids and a high tech job moves in. You do the analysis. Again, this trend has helped the D?s.
3. Fight the Power! One of the best lines for Fairfax Repubs in the 1980s and 1990s was that they opposed the ?downstate Democratic bosses? who controlled the legislature and discriminated against Fairfax in school and transportation funding. That went out the window in 2000, when the Repubs formally took control of the House of Delegates. Now the Fairfax Dems get to run against the ?Richmond Republicans? who shortchange Fairfax. One of my favorite lines as a candidate was to pit myself as a young man taking on the Richmond power structure, which is Republican. That?s what my constituents wanted and that?s what I tried to provide. The bottom line: Fairfax and Richmond are on an opposite track (for many reasons). And the party in control of the Assembly has a hard time north of the Occoquan River. This is another D advantage, at least in House races. And that advantage can even carry to the top of the ticket.
Of course, the average voter doesn?t give a damn about trends. Nor do they obsess about their own identity before casting a vote (?Gee, I?m a white computer engineer. Who should I support??) They vote for the person they think will do a better job. Lately, that means they?ve been voting in Fairfax for the Democrat. A lot of Republican candidates in the past five years ran against older, better-qualified Dems. It?s no disgrace. Heck, I?ve lost to more experienced opponents on occasion. But the failure of the Republicans to develop a solid farm system in Fairfax has meant that they have been losing in the majors. Bottom line, a good candidate beats a bad candidate most every time (there are exceptions! :)).
By Delegate Chap Petersen, who ran for the Democratic Lt. Governor nomination this past spring.
PS Bruce Roemmelt rocks, and so does his wife! :)
We have the post up over at www.tooconservative.blogspot.com as well..