The Republican Recession of 2008

By: Lowell
Published On: 5/4/2008 6:04:26 AM

There's more bad news on the economic front:

Payrolls shrank by 20,000 workers [in April], following a revised 81,000 drop in March that was larger than previously estimated, according to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Labor Department report also showed that income growth slowed in April. The economy's 0.6 percent expansion rate for the six months through March was the weakest performance since the U.S. was last in a recession in 2001.

Americans are noticing.  As of early May, 78% of Americans now believe we're in a recession, according to a new poll. Another poll indicates that 46% of Americans believe U.S. economic conditions are poor, with just 15% rating them excellent or good.  That same poll has a whopping 86% of Americans believing that economic conditions are getting worse, while only 9% believe they are getting better. Finally, only 22% of Americans approve of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy, while 73% disapprove.  Perhaps this is why Democrats now hold an 18-point advantage over Republicans in the "generic" congressional vote for 2008 (and why Democrats won a "blood red district last night in Louisiana).

Americans are right, at least in part, to blame George W. Bush and Republicans like John McCain for our current economic woes. That's because the causes are related directly to Republican economic policies like:

*Continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, including $120 per barrel oil from Saudi Arabia, etc., and a complete lack of leadership on developing a serious energy policy for our great country.

*A failure on many levels to position the United States to compete in a 21st century, globalized economy. Over the past few decades -- as Sen. Jim Webb might say -- we've seen the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, and the middle class get squeezed.

*The war in Iraq is costing the United States hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars. This money could have been far better spent to slash our debt, invest in our crumbling infrastructure, educate our children, provide quality health care to all Americans, and transition to a new energy economy. But no...that would not have been Republican "trickle down" economics.

*Republican economics also mean a consistently more regressive tax code. Huge tax cuts for rich people (who didn't ask for them or need them) and corporations like ExxonMobil (which just made enormous profits in the first quarter), crumbs for the middle and working classes? That's Republican economics in a nutshell.

*The situation we're in now is the direct result of "trickle down," "supply side" economics and "free trade" agreements that are neither "free" nor "fair." It's the result of lax regulation, in this case of the mortgage industry. It's the result of policy choices which rewards companies that outsource jobs overseas.

There's a lot more, but I'm sure you get the picture. Our current economic problems are not an accident, they are a DIRECT CONSEQUENCE of policies that Republicans like George W. Bush and John McCain have advocated, voted for, and signed into law.  So, the next time you pick up a newspaper and read about job losses, the US economy in recession, home values tumbling and energy prices soaring, you'll know exactly who to blame.


Comments



Bush's record is unprecedented! (Shenandoah Democrat - 5/4/2008 7:10:28 AM)
When was the last time we had a president that in 8 years has done what this deluded idiot has done? Never. In every area his record is a disaster: constitutional rights, foreign policy, economics, environment, government ops., housing,--it goes on and on. It's simply appalling that he's gotten away with it. And we'll be dealing with the repercussions for years, decades to come. Thanks preppie. I'm thinking of boycotting my 40th Andover Reunion next month even though my great class of '68 voted 90% for Kerry in '04, I know I'd run into someone speaking Bush's praises and I'd probably end up breaking his jaw and getting arrested for assault! But then it might be Scooter Libby!  


I can think of Four- Carter (Alter of Freedom - 5/4/2008 11:12:36 AM)
I recall much of the same issues being discussed about oil in the 70's and wonder how far if at all we have come from that discussion. Lowell has posted some pretty impressive oil posts, but has the situation changed or simply just our tolerance towards it and our wallets to pay for it. People are still putting 100 bucks of gas in that SUV. Why? Because they have that 100 bucks in the burbs.

Under Carter is was not only a shortage of gas ("No Gas Today") but also a shortage in the overall economy of the money in peoples wallets to pay for such increases. Today, under this so-called recession or the state of the economy where "people believe we're in recession" folks still have the money to pay for gas well beyond 4 bucks a gallon. **relative to other places in the world US prices are still lower by the way**.

It begs the question if the economy has been so bad in America over the last ten or so years why is it we have seen the growth and development of places like Loudon, Fairfax or Chesterfield? Without jobs these places could not have grown but the fact remains as much as people want to preach about a global economy- and then frankly moan about it when it does not suit them- the US has a more regional economy than folks would like to admit. Look at the thousands if not hundreds of thousands of folks who have relocated to the southeast from the northeast in the last dozen years. Why? Is it jobs? Is it costs of gas or costs of living? Is it bigger houses costing less? Is it quality of life? Why is it some areas of the country are being hit harder in the mortgage crisis then say Virginia localities? Is it taxes for that matter?

None of this is a commentary on Bush or any President for that matter. It is simply a matter of human nature when we open the doors to B&M over prices in the market which is such a easy issue because who would not want to get something for nothing, who would not want to pay pre-1990 gas prices, who would not want to pay sale prices at our favorite retailer--maybe we have become programed to be such consumers that when prices have to rise because of the global economy--yah know "demand"- we feel somehow we have been swindled.
Yeah we have been swindledalright, but not by the oil firms or the food growers or clothing makers but by those that propogated this myth that somehow a "Global Economy" would be in the best interests of this nation. Now take it easy, I am certainly not an isolationist either economically or foriegn policy wise but did anyone really think that opening up the world markets to a ten billion Chinamen and other regions of the world was going to be easy? Yeah probaly the same people who thought the the jobs would not be leaving America as well once this global economy got rolling and business could take advantage of lower wages and cost indexes elsewhere.



Economics isn't the whole story (Teddy - 5/4/2008 12:23:08 PM)
This is what I wrote to an online investment newsletter in response to a similar question about the situation of the nation under the current lame duck administration:

"This administration could not have done a better job of destroying American strength and leadership than if they had come into office with that express purpose... or, did they actually intend this result?

"Their dogmatic perseverance at implementing perverse, pseudo-conservative politics, destruction of the rule of law at home and abroad, transfer of wealth from 'lower' classes to selected super-wealthy classes, and the milking of the American taxpayer for the benefit of their cronies the corrupt capitalists, all the while spouting slogans from a particular religious cult, fear mongering of terror and wrapping themselves in the flag, turning the country over to the tender mercies of hostile foreign creditor nations.

"All this will be the wonder of future historians when they discuss how a great, free country can destroy itself in such short time with little or no protest from its citizens."

For more specific description of the problems the incoming President will face, most of which are either due directly to Bush or to implementation of his Republican philosophy, please take a quick glance at my article from yesterday on
Questions for Our Aspiring Leaders



Sorry, Alter, but Bush's record is unprecedented (aznew - 5/4/2008 2:19:48 PM)
I don't even know where to begin. In so many ways, militarily, reputation-wise, socially, economically, you name it, it will take us a generation to recover from the last eight years. For some, like millions of innocent Iraqis, or hundreds of thousands in New Orleans, or our killed and wounded soldiers and their families, the loss is incalculable. There won't be recovery, only coping.

What a disaster for America and the World.

Conservatives have been working to disassociate their ideology from Bush, and the effort will reach furious proportions over the next few years. The stakes for Conservatism -- whatever that means today -- are high, because the hole we are in is not simply due to the incompetence of one leader (although that it a part of it), but the ideology he embraces and governs by.

To tried to isolate a cause -- gobalization, tax policy, energy shortage, whatever -- or to suggest that our current situation in comparable to any time in post-WWII hitory, is to do a disservice to the perfect storm of ineptitude that has got us here.

 



Again, I said "none of this is a commentary" on Bush (Alter of Freedom - 5/4/2008 6:01:19 PM)
Not a supporter of Bushenomics nor have I defended Bush policy in anyway, what I said and commented on is in the overall national economy there are pockets, like Virginia, in a regional based economy that have done quite well regardless of the hurdles of Washintonian politics.
But to the point on Bush since people want to harp on that end of reality I can honestly say that during the Bush years I received more tax relief, an increase in the amount of deductions, child care tax credit, education credits etc than during any other administration. This may justy be becasue of the timing of my wife and I having children (3) during the Bush years with out first born a mere six days after 9/11. My wife and I have seen our incomes rise in the last eight years as well as our benefits. We have managed during the last four years to refinance autos and home to lowest level ever, manage to place our children in the quality private pre-schools, move into a older but established nieghborhood with quality public schools for our oldest now completing her first year of kindergarten. We are able to contribute to our faith as well as volunteer time on that front as well as make the best quality of life change of all--time for one another with one of us working full time now and one working part-time.
I know it is crazy and we do not contribute it to any politician but rather know it has been our descisions that have contributed to ther quality of life we lead. We do not blame anyone or anything for shortcomings that may occur and take solace in the fact the greatest things we we will teach our children as a result of this economy is personal responsibility as they grow older.
People have to take ownership of their lives and choices. We chose to do our part, flex-fuel, conservation of rainwater for our garden and composting, community activism and reaching out. We do not look for our government or employer for that matter to take controlling roles in our lives at all.
The day we allow our government or anyone else to determine our worth is the day that this nation truly has reached its climatic top of history as our premise in our founding documents would have failed.
The "perfect storm of ineptitude" may certainly have some truth in this adminstration but it also has some truth in a generation that has seen fit to blame government for its failing schools systems, burdening tax policy, rising commodity prices , a mortgage crisis brought on by many folks not understanding or reading the loans in which they signed simply because of the desire to live not a dream of a home but a dream that most certainly was beyond their means. Thats the "ineptitude". The lack of education or need to inform oneself--but then why bother when its just as easy to blame someone else for ones situation or lot in life.
Fact is no one cares too much for the consequences these days. The consequences of a global economy on our workforce or prices, or the consequences of encouraging or in fact out right demanding through legislation that banks and institutions loan money to lower income areas and individuals within this economy as somehow an answer to leveling the gap between the poverty line and the middle class when in fact a home does not level anything--hard work and education does. While folks were dead bent on seeing everyone in a home, they should have been concentrating on seeing that those folks had been afforded the best education possible for the future.
No I fear unless Congress revises the Fair Credit and reporting Act we will be faced with a class of folks that will be on the outside looking in for the next ten years due to either bankruptcy or foreclosure and will hardly be able to particpate at any great level in our economy for some time.


I'm glad you are doing well (aznew - 5/5/2008 10:17:38 AM)
It sounds like you have carved out a really nice piece of the pie for yourself and your three lucky kids.

But in evaluating the policies of the Bush era, it misses the point. I would ask you this question: despite all the success you have had, how secure do you feel?

Yes, millions of people did well the past eight years, but much of that was in spite of Bush policies, not because of them. Furthermore, Bush sold us out long-term for the short-term benefit of he and his rich pals.



Again, it was not and never intended as praise for Bush (Alter of Freedom - 5/5/2008 5:16:21 PM)
It was a look at the last eight years. Obviously, there are things that have occurred in the last eight years that allowed myself and family to take advantage of through the tax policy. Afterall, under Bill Clinton I was single with no children and in fact went through the process of Clinton's downsizing of the military. So relative to the 90's, both my economic and personal life have changed quite a bit. I have never much put a grain of salt in the Presidential politcis for the very reason it is local governments and state ones that can eat away at your lunch more so than the Federal government. Look at local taxes (food for example) sales taxes, gas taxes in addtion to the .18 Federal level, toll roads etc. Your local governments property tax and assessment schedule can do more to place pressure on retired folks with limited income than the Federal government can.

We have our troubles like anyone else. One of our twins actually suffers from CP and was diagnosed at three years old. Fortunately, we made good choices with regard to our employers and our benefit plan. That is the one criticism I have of our educational system and that is it does not prepare folks for the reality that the paycheck amount or salary is not the only reason for accepting a new position in this economy. One has to look at the benefits, the matching 401K, health and life insurance benefits, accident insurance, and now even spending accounts. It makes no sense for people to leave one job for another only to find out that though the salary is more in the end their monthly income is lower than the previous job because they failed to look at how much they would be spending on benefits.
In terms of security, I feel secure enough both in our safety and our economic situation going forward that I could vote either Democrat or Republican this Fall without feeling that either way is really going to impact our financial situation. To me thats real personal freedom which is why I can remain an Independent and not feel as though my hopes or dreams for my family are linked to one Party or individual. Like my grandfather always stressed, you make your own luck in this world through hard work.
I would only add you have to plan for that rainy day but in all honesty many folks these days that day has already unfortunately come.



Most of us haven't done so well (Hugo Estrada - 5/5/2008 1:56:09 PM)
I am happy that these 8 years have been working well for you. They have not been great for me. My wife and I have education, we both work hard, but God wished to send us two children with health conditions which take a lot of our energy, time, and money.

Most middle class families are a chronic illness away from poverty. It is as if we are playing some sick version of the misfortune lottery.

And these are a result of the policies from the administration.

The fatal combination of cutting taxes while increasing military spending, the heart of the conservative fiscal policy, is poison for most Americans. It artificially creates a deficit that makes it difficult to fund health, housing, and education.

And, as another story in RK shows, the administration has been lax in regulating and enforcing regulation. The problems with the credit markets were created by these two. These can be fixed.

Fixing the health problems of children exposed to toxic substances, which is another area where Bush has had a lax enforcement policy, is a lot more difficult and problematic.



McCain (wcvarones - 5/4/2008 11:07:33 AM)
McCain to borrowers: Stop paying your mortgage!


It's not just the current state of the economy (AnonymousIsAWoman - 5/4/2008 1:59:14 PM)
But equally important is the fact that even in the good times, 2003 through 2006 or so, corporations were making very large profits, the GDP was at or around 4 to 6 percent, and productivity was also in the 6 percent range, virtually unheard of.  The fundamentals of a strong economy truly were there.  

But wages were stagnant.  The low unemployment figure was misleading because it hid the fact that many people had been laid off from well paying jobs with good benefits and were often working two or more jobs to make ends meet. Furthermore, many who claimed to be self employed, using fancy terms like "consultants," were actually setting up small businesses, like lawn services, or even genuine business consulting companies, out of their basements.  While they weren't unemployed, they were certainly under employed, making a fraction of their old salaries and often having no health insurance or retirement benefits.  Many of them, when asked, admitted that they wouldn't have gone into these small businesses, which often failed in the first year, if they had been able to stay at their old companies.

Even in the best of times, working and middle class people were losing ground, and with hard times for everybody, including the rich, the burden is still falling disproportionately  on the middle class, who never shared in the prosperity.



I think what you are forgetting (tx2vadem - 5/4/2008 8:46:27 PM)
is that we are a democracy.  The people make the choices whether they be explicit or implicit by their lack of action.  They (we) have created the world we now live in.  You want to lay this at Republicans' door, that is fine.  But they were just offering a set of ideas that the people bought into.  

I think you also forget that these things did not just present themselves in the Bush Administration.  Democrats were there too.  And before Bush, they were there.  The tax code has become less progressive under both Democratic and Republican administrations and Congresses.  Free trade has not been an agenda item unique to Republicans.  

And to your point on bank and securities regulation, it's both Democrats and Republicans who have overseen regulation of these industries.  And up until more recently (i.e., the mortgage meltdown), Senator Schumer (D-NY) has been preaching how burdened the finance sector is with regulation.

As far as the 21st century economy, we are not a planned economy.  We are free to build a new economy any time we want to.  Are Republicans holding us back here?

If Americans choose to do things against their own best interests, well that is what freedom is all about.



The Republican Congress denied a voice to their opposition (Hugo Estrada - 5/5/2008 2:01:52 PM)
Let's not forget that just 2 years ago not even moderate Republicans had a voice in Congress. They made and broke rules, and they killed any positive bills that were written.

A second note: our economy may not be planned, but the government does encourage certain sectors. In that sense, we do live in a semi-planned economy. When there are extra incentives to, let's say, create biofuels, the markets respond to it.

And since the current making of the tax code is mainly the work of Republicans, yes, it is their fault.



House Rules Committee (tx2vadem - 5/5/2008 5:33:21 PM)
As far as I know, Nancy Pelosi is running the House in a manner similar to the Republicans.  She may not have dropped the deference to seniority as Tom "The Hammer" Delay did.  But she is certainly controlling the House floor, determining what bills get debated, allotting time for debate, and controlling what can and cannot be amended.  And she has not been afraid of crushing dissent within her own caucus.

To your second point, if the government throws out free money; then, of course, the market will respond.  It doesn't necessarily mean something better; it could just end up being gold-plating.  In the case of biofuel subsidies, these end up going to big corporations like ADM and Monsanto.  Why is it best for a small group of people in Washington, D.C. to dictate the direction of a workforce of over 170 million people?  

The Internal Revenue Code in use today is the result of the Tax Reform Act of 1986.  At the time, Democrats held 253 seats in the House and 47 seats in the Senate.  And Democrats were supporters of this monumental piece of tax legislation.  All we have done since 1986 is to adjust the marginal rates and the rates on capital gains, estate & gift tax, and dividend distributions.  But again, if Democrats didn't want to make these adjustments, they could have held up or stopped the legislation in the Senate.  They did add sunset provisions.



Wow (citizenindy - 5/5/2008 9:24:46 AM)
First reread Alter of Freedom and tx2vadem

Point by point

1. All of us are very relient on fossil fuels.  So all of us are to blame for the higher prices.  Reread your oil diary Lowell.  Short term we need more energy Now.  Prices are going to continue to increase due to supply and demand and if policy was changed supply would decrease increasing prices even faster.  Long term there IS a plan mainly focused on ethanol and nulcear (deabatable yes but there is a plan in place)

2. You are flat out wrong on this.  Senator Webb and his ilk are proposing protectionisim which would destroy our propserity.  We live in a global economy.  Also the current tax policy favors economic growth.  In terms of squeeezing.  If you are a college graduate you have had an excellent last 10 years.  I can't make people go to college or be responsible for their economic well being.          

3.  I can see your argument on this.  Its an agree to disagree about what the cost is for leaving Iraq.

4.  Under Republican leadership taxes were reduced for all Americans.  Under almost all Democratic proposals taxes would increase for those making as little as 45,000 per year.

5.  The situation we are in now is a direct result of supply and demand issues.  I can't help it that the majority of Americans can't keep a budget and live within their means.  

Bottom line.  The last year or so has had bad inflation.  Prior to that the last six years have been very good for people that have rightly prioritized education, and lived responsibily.

 



Respectfully, you are incorrect (Hugo Estrada - 5/5/2008 2:14:07 PM)
1. Part of the reason why there is less oil in the market is the Iraq War, which was wage to a great extent for the U.S. to control Iraqi oil.

2. The global economy is failing, as the food riots around the world show us. The prosperity that it creates only help those who have the most wealth, while making the lives of regular people worse off in every country that it touches that can't put a decent tariffs to protect local industry and production.

3. No comment.

4. My tax breaks were chump change compared with the amounts that the richest people get. One year my tax burden was reduced something like $50. Most of us are still paying a higher rate for taxes than Warren Buffet.

5. Inflation marched on, but wages didn't. As health costs skyrocketed, wages stayed the same. As housing skyrocketed--which was fueled by policies of the treasury--, wages stayed the same. As education skyrocketed, wages stayed the same.

The economic indicators show that productivity went up during the last 8 years. American workers did their part. They just never got their fair reward for their work. Someone was keeping the difference.

Bottom line: We have had 8 years of high, real inflation (fuel, food, education, and health) with stagnant wages and an ever vanishing safety net.

We got to set out priorities straight, get out of Iraq and get back into the U.S.A.



Point by point reply (tx2vadem - 5/5/2008 6:13:04 PM)
1.  We need a better plan than ethanol.  We consume too much energy for ethanol to replace petroleum or make a sizeable dent in supply.  I'm all for converting all of Arizona and Nevada into one giant concentrating solar plant, but that requires money for the plants and money for a different transmission infrastructure.  When we wanted railroads to cross the continent, the government helped private industry accomplish that.  For things that require this great of a capital investment in what will eventually become a regulated utility monopoly anyway, you need some government intervention.  Ethanol sucks on many levels and I think the RK community has beat that one to death; so, I'm just incorporating all of that criticism here by general reference.

2.  Can't argue with you there.  I need a better explanation of why we need to enact barriers so that the U.S. can maintain textile mfg jobs.  Why not let others do that while we focus on service, engineering, science, research, etc...?  I think this would help us get to that 21st century economy faster than binding labor up in mfg jobs.

3.  Citzenindy, you disappoint me here. ;)  As a fiscal conservative and someone who obviously values individualism, the argument presents itelf in a nice bow.  We need to get out; it saves us money; and Iraqis as free individuals can decide for themselves what kind of country they want.

4.  You must be referring to more recently and national Democrats.  I'd be interested to see the porposals that would have gone down to 45k.  Are you including no votes on Bush Tax Cuts?

5.  The individualist in me certainly says Amen to that.  Preach on sister, Suze Orman!  But, as Suze, so aptly demonstrates there are Americans who don't possess the tools to make good financial decisions.  And specifically, I mean they didn't receive any education on proper money management.  It's one thing to chide people if they have the tools at their disposal and they make poor decisions anyway (that's freedom).  But it is another, if they don't have the tools to begin with.  I agree with you as long as we are providing the tools so that people are educated and can make an informed decision.  

Also, you cannot entirely discount the tax code's effect on income distribution.  Nor can you discount the effect of insular corporate boards approving compensation packages that grow despite average or poor performance.  There are a lot of things out there is all I am saying.  It cannot all be chalked up to an education gap and supply & demand.  Compensation is not always operating at every level as a perfect, free market.