Some caveats apply. As in the IL-14 special election in which Democrat Bill Foster won against Republican Jim 0berweis, the Democrat in the race is a centrist that has social views that are in-line with the district facing a hard-right ideologue that has run unsuccessfully for office a number of times.
Still, this is two special elections in a row that pretty solid Republican districts have gone to Democrats. Throw in the race in MS-01 (an R + 10 district!), in which there is a runoff in two weeks and in which a Democrat, Travis Childers, nearly won outright in a crowded field and in which the Democrats got more votes than the Republican candidates, and the landscape looks very different in 2008 that it has in a long time.
Take that line at R + 5, and that is probably the new 50/50 nationally, meaning the Republican party has probably lost 10 percentage points since 2004. That means that Judy Feder, Glenn Nye, and Tom Perriello all have very realistic chances of winning their races this fall if the proper effort is expended by all of us, to say nothing about VA-11. And, really, that means that there may very well be chances in other districts in VA with the right amount of elbow grease and innovation.
It's just more seats on the floor. And do these representatives strengthen an ideological agenda or do they dilute it?
I mean there has not been a thorough repudiation of conservative ideas. Is it just about an eternal struggle?
If we're talking about a huge wave of 50+ Dems in the House, that probably translates into 12+ seats in the Senate and a Democratic President -- the type of governing majority that created the New Deal. I think it would definitely mean an end to the war in Iraq, a reversal of our insane fiscal policies, and legislation that remedies the credit excesses of the past 20 years. Hopefully it includes a realistic, sane, and transformative energy policy, and a drastic rejiggering of health care. It definitely means a passed stem cell act, expanded S-CHIP, a new GI Bill for our veterans (and hopefully expanded veterans health care), and the expiration of the Bush/Cheney/McCain tax cuts. That's a good start.
I surely am not in it just for more seats on the floor that read 'Democrat' and answer to Steny Hoyer and Rahm Emanuel. It's up to us to work this wave into office, and then demand that our voices be heeded. It's about a more perfect union, not just more 'red' or 'blue' seats, at least for me.
via Rasmussen:
TX-Sen: Cornyn (R) - 47%; Noriega (D) - 43%
TX-Pres: McCain (R) - 48%; 0bama (D) - 43%;
TX-Pres: McCain (R) - 49%; Clinton (D) - 43%
We're talking about a five point spread, essentially generic R vs D, in Texas!
Polling in other southern states like NC and SC indicate that those states, along with VA and TX (and FL, although I don't consider FL southern, per se) could be in play this November at the top of the ticket.
The Republican party is becoming the party not even of the south, but only of the white, evangelical deep south.