NLS and RK, received a combined 140,000 visits last month. The 11th CD primary in 2006 saw 19,649 voters casting ballots.   So, even assuming that just 5% of NLS and RK combined traffic are voters who live in the 11th CD (actually, the RK poll in April showed that 43% of RK traffic comes from Northern Virginia), that's 7,000 voters.  If it's 10%, that's 14,000 voters, and that's just for 1 month. Also remember, the blogs are read by the what Gladwell called the "mavens," "connectors," and "salesmen" -- people who talk to other people about stuff and help persuade them.  Finally, blogs are read by reporters.  In sum, your reasoning is highly questionable, as is your "advantage Conolly" (note: it's spelled Connolly not Conolly) conclusion.

Primaries generally have lower turnout than general elections which essentially means that the people who are actively involved in politics will make up a larger percentage of the vote. Since many of these grassroots activists, political insiders, etc. are at least familiar with the larger blogs, I think it's safe to say that blogs will have an impact on the primary.

during a primary year...

Besides, I just gave money to the Byrne campaign based mostly on Leslie's track record, but also based on the comparative video Eric posted here a week ago.

So it does make a little difference... how much?  Very difficult to quantify.

I think turnout will be lower than in 2006 without a Senate race on top of the ballot like Webb v. Miller.

I think Byrne has the activist energy edge over Connolly, but that's only going to matter if voters actually show up on June 10.

I'd like to believe that Byrne's clear progressive credentials would be enough to motivate a sufficient number of voters, but it just might take the kind of "Stop Connolly" energy prevalent here and at NLS to make the difference.

I think there are more Byrne supporters who don't want Connolly to win than there are Connolly supporters who don't want Byrne to win.  Connolly supporters, as opposed to Connolly special interest donors who would expect a quid pro quo from a Rep. Connolly, could count on Byrne to vote similarly enough to Connolly that they might not care enough to vote.  Moreover, Connolly supporters know that if he loses the primary he keeps his job as County Chairman, hardly chopped liver.  In fact, I wonder to what extent Connolly's special interest donors might not exert that much energy to turn out the vote because they'd rather have him closer to home continuing to dole out the favors.

I don't think there is as much anti-Byrne sentiment out there that would make people come out to vote for Connolly (or Denneny or Alexander) just to stop Byrne.

The bottom line is we all have to make sure we vote and that we urge all those who will listen to us to vote.  Let's make it as much of a celebration day as possible.  Progressives, rejoice!  Connolly haters, here's your chance!

...I say the the real help is for Lori Alexander, because she is at least being mentioned in the blogs...while the MSM acts as if she and her candidacy doesn't exist...