PA Primary: 7:30pm Update

By: TheGreenMiles
Published On: 4/22/2008 7:35:02 PM

CNN's exit polls indicate voters thought Hillary's attacks on Obama were unfair ... yet the same polls show voters who decided in the last week broke towards Hillary.

There are a couple of sites claiming to have overall exit poll results ... but as Brendan Loy points out, early overall exit polls have been wrong and skewed towards Obama.

There are reports of record high turnout ... but four years ago, the Democratic race had been over for 10 weeks when PA voted.

Did you hear all three candidates appeared on last night's WWE "Monday Night RAW" wrestling show? Here are the clips of Hillary, Obama and McCain. Who will Mean Gene Okerlund endorse?

UPDATE 7:57pm: In the other important contest of the night, the Caps and Flyers are tied at 1-1 at the end of the first.

UPDATE 8:00pm: Polls closed, CNN projects race as "very competitive," not calling the race yet.

UPDATE 8:28pm: Still no official returns. CNN continues to call the race "competitive" ... but that's different than "too close to call," don't you think?

UPDATE 8:45pm: Fox News just called it for Hillary. 

UPDATE 8:51pm: MSNBC calls it for Hillary. 



Comments



Donna Brazile to Lou Dobbs (TheGreenMiles - 4/22/2008 7:45:40 PM)
"Lou, you're not exactly my boo."

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.



Hahahaha (GeorgetownStudent - 4/22/2008 8:06:58 PM)
I LOVE Donna Brazile. I went to the class she teaches at Georgetown one time and she was awesome.


Breaking news (TheGreenMiles - 4/22/2008 8:08:03 PM)
Candy Crowley's eyebrows have migrated two inches north on her forehead. I blame global warming.


states where exits overstated Obama (teacherken - 4/22/2008 7:46:51 PM)
usually had early voting.  So exit polls measured only what he did on election day, and did not account for the votes Clinton had banked -  a big issue in both TX and OH

but Pennsylvania does not have early voting, and has more rigorous requirements for absentee than we do in Virginia.

on the other hand, there are reports of heavy use of provisional ballots in Philadelphia - these could be new voters (for Obama?) who did not register in person and failed to show up with proper picture id to vote - odds are their ballot will never be counted, and yet they could show up in exit polls inflating his numbers



Do you suspect the establishment of gaming the system . . . (True Blue - 4/22/2008 8:16:26 PM)
in Pennsylvania?


Impossible. (JPTERP - 4/22/2008 8:20:05 PM)
Not in a state where machine politics are well known to be a vestige of the very distant past . . . (And no, I'm not being serious).


if you project out CNN exit by Gender (teacherken - 4/22/2008 8:18:14 PM)
it comes out to <4% margin  something between 3 and 3.5

and so far that has tended to work as a very good indicator of how the day will go.

Here what complicates it are two things

1) heavy late voting in Philadelphia which may not be accurately reflected in exits

2) but also in Phila, a lot of provisional ballots that may not be counted.

Still, too early too close to call is not what the CLintons wanted.   Now networks will have to see a chunk of real numbers to match that against exits from selected precincts to see if their projects match out.

I would say it does not look like a double digit win.   And remember for Spin  purposes that Matthews made over/under at 8 and Todd at 7



CNN calling it very competetive: (DanG - 4/22/2008 8:19:52 PM)
If the results truly are competetive, that in itself will be a moral victory for Team Obama.  Let's hope that it truly is.


Rove, happily: "It's a disaster." (j_wyatt - 4/22/2008 8:48:00 PM)
Does this comment on American democracy from a Goebbels acolyte qualify as hubris or sheer idiocy?

So for hours now, cable news has been speculating on little else but the size of Hillary Clinton's apparently inevitable victory.

And now the polls are closed, and NBC News -- through MSNBC -- is declaring it "too close to call."

CNN calls it a "competitive race."

Fox News calls it "close."

Chris Wallace, though, is willing to have Karl Rove speculate about how many delegates Clinton would get if she wins by 10 points.

Both seem amused by the complications of the Democrats' system, which eschews the decisive nature of winner-take-all primaries.

"It's a disaster," says Rove happily.

http://www.philly.com/philly/b...



The real issue is how big the victory (True Blue - 4/22/2008 9:06:28 PM)
She needs +10%.