Midday PA Primary Open Thread: Slouching Towards Harrisburg

By: TheGreenMiles
Published On: 4/22/2008 2:31:20 PM

Less than six hours now until polls close in Pennsylvania. I'm not near a TV so I can't tell you what the Jack Caffertys and the Pat Buchanans are predicting ... and in no way am I upset about that.

Taking a look around the series of tubes, Kos predicts a solid Clinton win. The Politico offers five key points to watch. Pollster.com says the undecideds will decide the winner. Noam Schieber says Hillary closed well. Chris Cillizza walks through the ground rules of the expectations game.

What's the best analysis you've heard so far? Anything you've seen today that's made you change your previous primary prediction?

UPDATE by Lowell (5:22 pm): Philly.com reports "record turnout."



Comments



It feels like analyzing an exhibition game after the World Series is over. (Jack Landers - 4/22/2008 2:57:37 PM)
It's so tempting to dive into the usual analysis and poll reading and so on with this primary.  Since it's been so built up and that's just what we all want to do with big elections.

But. Making predictions and analyzing the PA primary is activity that suggests that the PA primary actually matters in some way. Which it doesn't. Obama is the nominee. Maybe if Clinton got, like, 80% then that could change things. But she obviously won't.

Obama has long since shut Clinton down via the delegate math. Her attacks against him and attempts to destroy him have totally failed among Democrats. Super delegates continue to break for Obama. There will be no coup. Florida and Michigan are settled and done.

PA does not matter. It doesn't even matter what the media thinks or what public perception is because it all comes down to delegate math that can't be spun into submission. Thus picking the PA race apart and making predictions seems like a totally pointless activity.  

No offense intended to those who enjoy doing so. I just don't see the point in pulling out the precinct maps and looking at historic turn-out rates and registration data and all the rest when it doesn't even matter what happens today.



Party pooper! (Lowell - 4/22/2008 4:36:37 PM)
:)


It matters (Pain - 4/22/2008 6:26:54 PM)
...if Obama is close enough to make HRC drop out.  I agree that Obama is going to be the nom [short of a miracle for HRC] but I'd really like this thing to be over and Senator Clinton stop acting like a republican stratagist, giving them all their talking points for the general.


In other news ... (TheGreenMiles - 4/22/2008 3:27:26 PM)
Oil is nearing $120 a barrel. With John McCain's plan to solve our energy problems consisting of pandering on cheap gas, could it be an opening for the Dem nominee?


McCain is offering us a $0.18/gal of gasoline discount. (Bubby - 4/22/2008 3:40:03 PM)
That's less than $3/fill-up.  Thanks Grandpa!  See you in the cheese line.


Unfortunately, I'm hearing the same (Lowell - 4/22/2008 4:34:34 PM)
pandering from the Democratic candidates.  The idea of using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to tweak prices down a bit is also really, really stupid.


It's smart voter manipulation if you want them (snolan - 4/22/2008 4:45:07 PM)
to temporarily feel some relief and feel a little better than they do about the current regime...



Exit Poll (Flipper - 4/22/2008 5:42:21 PM)
Clinton 52% to 48% for Obama.  Please get on the phones and help turn out the vote.

http://www.drudgereport.com/



Man, I would LOVE it if (Lowell - 4/22/2008 6:10:22 PM)
that exit poll is correct.  At this point, though, my confidence in exit polls is close to zero.  Anyway, you're right, there are 2 more hours so call everyone you know to vote for Obama!


it might be (teacherken - 4/22/2008 6:17:13 PM)
when you go inside internals and compare to SUSA completed Sunday, it makes sense.  The changes in demographics seem to match.   I am assuming that SUSA understated AA participation, which they had a 14%.

Some examples  -  exits have AA at 92-8, versus 85-12 in SUSA

exits have seniors 61-38 versus 62-32 in SUSA

you will read in exits that late deciders are 58-42 Clinton.  But that includes anyone who decided in last 7 days, and thus at least half of that was probably accounted for already in SUSA poll.  

We do not know how many of people in exit poll voted on provisionals, and their ballots won't count.  There has been high use of provisional in Philadelphia, which is NOT good for  Obama.  My guess is 1st time voters who showed up w/o picture id.  

If there are not too many first time voters disqualified, and those disqualified are not heavily for Obama, I think the final margin is quite probably in the single digits.  

We'll have to see what the shape of the late turnout is like.



I am A pooper of the Party (pvogel - 4/22/2008 6:10:54 PM)
Hillarys ground  game is terrible. All she has is negativity.
She has to complete Hail mary passes, and buy off the  reffs.

Obama has to fall on the ball, play out the clock.

Not everybody will be happy no matter the outcome,  but either candidate on their worst day is preferable to Mccain on his best day



Let's hope they let the blacks vote (Rebecca - 4/22/2008 6:27:26 PM)
I am reading that there are above average problams with the voting machines in the black neighborhoods of Phili. I hope they get extra time to vote. Where is aznew to accuse me of being a conspiracy theorist?


This may be true (aznew - 4/22/2008 6:38:45 PM)
There is a long and continuing record in this country of denying African Americans the right to vote. It used to be poll tests and taxes, now it is subpar technology and equipment.

But you're still a conspiracy theorist. :)