I say this even Real Clear Politics has it 7.3 points.  However, I'm fairly positive that the 18-point SurveyUSA poll was an outlier, as there has yet to be anoter poll to confirm that.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-...

What sets the SurveyUSA methodology apart from other Pennsylvania numbers is they've managed somehow to minimize the number of undecided:  2% in their last two polls and 3% in the poll before those.

After SurveyUSA's 56% to 38%, the second worst Pennsylvania poll numbers for Obama is InsiderAdvantage's 48% to 38%, the difference likely attributable to InsiderAdvantage's 13% undecided.

While it's not an absolutely mathematical confirmation, InsiderAdvantage's numbers, especially if one were to apportion the undecideds, suggests it might be wise not to dismiss SurveyUSA's spread as an aberration.

If memory serves me right, SurveyUSA has been the most accurate of the pollsters.

Senator Obama needs to take it up a notch.

It seems perfectly possible for Clinton to win by 10%.  I'm guessing on a 8-12% victory for her.  SurveyUSA is not the most accurate of pollsters, however.  They were the only accurate poll on California.  In fact, if you read their own "report card", their really "hit or miss."  Their median score is great, because they hit frequently.  But their average score is pretty low, because when they get it wrong (a la Wisconsin), they are VERY wrong.

Check this out.

According to Rasmussen, both Barack and Hillary now lead McCain by 8 or 9 points. In Rasmussen's last polling, a month ago, McCain led both by a point or two. So, by campaigning nearly non-stop in Penna for about a month, the Democrats are strengthening their position for the fall versus McCain.

Some other recent polls by other companies are not this clear cut, but those outfits aren't as reputable as Rasmussen. Would still like to see confirmation from SUSA.

Interesting nonetheless.

Also, Rasmussen polled head-to-heads in Louisiana -- and Barack is down only 11 points (52-41), while Hillary is down by double that margin (58-36).  

McCain and Obama are tied, according to Rasmussen, 47 - 47. McCain leads Clinton, 51 - 40.

I have thought for some time that NC would be as much of a swing state this fall as VA. I think SC could actually be competitive, too, with Barack as the nominee. GA, AL, MS, and LA seem like a stretch to me, but some models put them in play with a Barack candidacy due to the large numbers of black voters in those states.

Interesting, nonetheless.

Will Obama "bitter" comment hurt him. And will Hillay's "The British are boycotting the Olympics" disaster hurt either of them.

 

That's the media narrative right now -- the sky is falling.  

And yes, unfortunately, some people still get their opinions from DC-based, well-heeled political gossips who will say and do anything to protect their tax cuts.

Obama's numbers might take a hit.  On the other side, maybe voters will appreciate his straight talk and see through this most recent manufactured controversy.  At this stage I know who I trust -- my support isn't wavering because McClinton or McCain tells me that I should trust them instead.