A poll getting it right in one state is not enough to convince me. I can't see how Obama is up by 2 when this same outfit had him down by 26 just a few weeks ago.

Take nothing for granted, work like we are still 26 points down.

Texas and Ohio too....

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Another poll shows a different result -- a 9-point lead for Clinton in PA, down from a 12-point lead in the March 18 Q-poll.

FOR RELEASE: APRIL 2, 2008

CLINTON LEADS 50 - 41 AMONG PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRATS;

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;

WHITES GIVE CLINTON LEAD IN KEY NOVEMBER MATCHUPS:

---

PENNSYLVANIA Democrats: Clinton 50 - Obama 41;

FLORIDA: Clinton 44 - McCain 42; McCain 46 - Obama 37;

OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 39; Obama 43 - McCain 42

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

           This compares to a 53 - 41 percent lead in a March 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.  In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.

   * Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;
   * Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
   * Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

     The primary vote between Obama and Clinton splits sharply along racial lines, with her advantage coming from stronger support in every contest from white voters.   For example, Clinton leads 59 - 34 percent among white Pennsylvania likely primary voters, while Obama leads 73 - 11 percent among black Democrats.

     "When it comes to November, Sen. Hillary Clinton's strength is a big edge over Sen. Barack Obama among white voters, who have not given a majority of their votes to a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."

     more

Quinnipiac University Poll/April 2, 2008--page 2

           More than a third of voters in the three states think Obama's race is an advantage, more than twice the number who think it is a disadvantage.  By contrast, roughly a quarter of voters say Clinton's gender is an advantage, and about the same number think it is a disadvantage.

     "Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro's assertion that Obama's race has helped his candidacy finds some support among the electorate," said Brown.

     "At least for now, Sen. Clinton's argument that she is the better general election candidate  in these key battleground states appears to have some validity," said Brown. "In this survey, her strength among white voters is why she runs better against Sen. McCain than does Sen. Obama.

     "Roughly one in five Democrats in the three states say they will vote for McCain against Obama, but less than 10 percent say they would vote for McCain over Clinton.  Among white Democrats, 23 percent defect to McCain in a matchup with Obama, but only 11 percent defect when Clinton is the Democratic candidate."

Pennsylvania

     Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent with women, and ties Obama 46 - 46 percent with men.   Obama leads 51 - 42 percent among voters under 45 years old, while Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among voters over 45.

     By a 48 - 42 percent margin, Pennsylvania registered voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  Obama gets a 49 - 31 percent favorability and McCain gets 47 - 31 percent.

     "Sen. Clinton's imaginary snipers, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, these events have taken only a small toll on Sen. Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

     "Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters - blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State.  Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far."

     The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 46 percent of voters say, followed by 23 percent who list the war in Iraq and 14 percent who cite health care.

     Looking at the most important quality in a candidate, 30 percent want a strong leader and 26 percent want someone who is trustworthy.

     Being black is an advantage for Obama, 32 percent say, while 15 percent say it's a disadvantage and 47 percent say it makes no difference.

     Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 26 percent say, with 25 percent saying it's a disadvantage and 45 percent saying it makes no difference.
Quinnipiac University Poll/April 2, 2008 - page 3

Florida

     In a general election match-up, McCain trails Clinton 44 - 42, too close to call, but handily defeats Obama 46 - 37 percent.

     "The difference between Clinton and Obama in Florida is the white vote," said Brown. "She gets 38 percent to 50 percent for McCain, but Obama loses to the Arizona senator 54 - 27 among white voters.  If Obama does get the nomination, how he fares with whites will be crucial to his chances."

     The economy is the most important issue to Florida voters, 44 percent of voters say, followed by 19 percent who list the war in Iraq and 14 percent who cite health care.

     Twenty-nine percent say a strong leader is the most important characteristic they seek in a president, while 27 percent say trustworthiness.

     Being black is an advantage for Obama, 35 percent say, while 15 percent say it's a disadvantage and 44 percent say it makes no difference.

     Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 24 percent say, with 25 percent saying it's a disadvantage and 47 percent saying it makes no difference.

Ohio

     Clinton's 48 - 39 percent lead over McCain puts her clearly out in front after several months of see-saw, too-close-to-call results.  

     Men split with 43 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Clinton, but women go with her 53 - 35 percent.

     In an Obama-McCain matchup in Ohio, women back Obama 44 - 40 percent as men split, with 44 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Obama.

     Despite Clinton's edge in the match-ups, she is not as well thought of overall as her two competitors.  Ohio voters split 47 - 45 percent in their opinion of Clinton.   By a 45 - 37 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.  McCain gets a 42 - 33 percent favorability.

     "The favorability data indicate that her lead may be in part due to higher name recognition. This is not a good omen as the other candidates become better known," said Brown.

     The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 44 percent of voters say, followed by 22 percent who list the war in Iraq and 17 percent who cite health care.

more
Quinnipiac University Poll/April 2, 2008 - page 4

      "The economic concerns of voters make Ohio a tougher challenge for McCain than has traditionally been the case for Republicans, who have never won the White House without carrying Ohio," Brown said.  "But Obama's weakness among white men is an indication that he has not yet closed the sale among the lunch bucket brigade."

     Ohio voters split in the most important quality they want in a candidate, with 28 percent looking for someone trustworthy and 27 percent looking for a strong leader.

     Being black is an advantage for Obama, 36 percent say, while 14 percent say it's a disadvantage and 45 percent say it makes no difference.

     Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 24 percent say, with 27 percent saying it's a disadvantage and 46 percent saying it makes no difference.

     From March 24 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

   * 1,136 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;
   * 1,238 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
   * 3,484 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 1.7 percent, including 1,549 Democratic likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.

     The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/poll... or call (203) 582-5201.

Problem is that it's a 6-day poll, and a lot has changed in a week.  The Wright case has died down, while Bosnia has gotten bigger.

n/t

that in a big state with the type of union history found in the coal-mining country and the west the endorsement by the unions of Obama was pretty significant.  That endorsement, coupled with Casey's, should have contributed to a surge in support for Obama.

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama is gaining on HRC in PA.  He has had a good week or two, while she has not (Bosnia, talk of dropping out).  I was in Williamsport,PA, two weeks ago, and there was no buzz on the campaign there.  I asked several people what they thought of Obama-Clinton, and the overwhelming majority was not very familiar with Obama.  HRC is a known commodity, so I think she starts with an advantage due to name-ID only, until Barack introduces himself.  If reports are true, Obama spent $2m on ads in PA, NC, and IN last week while HRC spent only $400k.  Plus, he had a mutli-day bus tour kicking off his PA campaign and was endorsed unexpectedly by Sen. Casey (he was also endorsed today by Lee Hamilton, a key foreign policy expert).  This leads me to believe that the polls may be accurate, he may be cutting into her lead.  There's still a lot of time left until April 22.

Clinton's current white male vote advantage will erode as they switch to McCain in fairly high numbers after the nomination.    In the final days of the election, many conservative to moderate white voters, especially males over thirty, will simply go with the military hero based upon his relatively moderate social agenda (relatively moderate compared to the duds in the White House now of course).  Bottom line, predicting that Clinton can hold the older white male vote advantage against McCain is a bad bet.  Obama has less negatives than Clinton overall, so he is the one that can possibly win in November but it will be due to a very energized liberal base along with the hordes of young people of all persuasions joining the ranks of voters like never before.  If he is depending upon middle aged and senior white males to put him over, we can start printing the presidential calendar now with Big John's picture on it. On the other hand, a lot of voters are at the point that any of the three current candidates is fine with them, we gotta have some relief!!!

to be on a strong uptick in PA, but this isn't a polling service I'll bet the farm on.
But don't get me wrong........

are there any left? try not breaking everything on race.
obama is our next prez.

The issues that I'm concerned with (and why I strongly support Obama) are race-neutral - the stupid war that HRC supports; the status quo that the Clinton dynasty represents; that McCain and HRC kiss too much corporate butt; and, HRC's need to vote in support of a Constitutional amendment to ban flag burning (a sign that she cares more about superficial pandering than wiht the rule of law and personal freedom to express one's self).

Why play into the Clinton's thinly-veiled race-baiting ploy?  I could care less about anyone's skin color, or hair color, or eye color for that matter - it means nothing to me, and likely means nothing to the majority of other white men.
 

The amount of young voters coming out to vote is amazing. They are all for Obama.
Obama says he will change the electorate, and he is doing that right now.
If the "old" demographics want to complain about his race, his wife, his family, his pastor, his stand on whatever, let them.
They don't count anymore. I don't count anymore.
We got ourselves into this mess, we let ourselves be duped and pushed aside.
What does Barack say "not this time". Yep folks, not this time.
We want our country back, what is left of it.

I know that it would be great if this were the case, but all of those people still vote, and vote reliably.

We shouldn't forget that :)

were pretty awesome. To have almost a million come out and vote in a primary is outstanding. And the repubs were about 400,000. So if those numbers hold true in November, Virginia is Blue.
I know a lot of repubs and they do not like mccain and are not even talking about bush.

Not to burst anyone's bubble, but here's another recent poll showing Obama is just 2 points down.

http://www.internetnewsagency....

Interesting how Obama has really broken Clinton's stranglehold on white men.

I'm just don't want to jinx Obama!