Don't get me wrong, I give Feder all the credit for trying to unseat a longtime popular incumbent but she had the winds in her direction in 2006 and still came up well short. To her credit, I cannot believe she is trying again, especially with John McCain at the top of the ticket. If no one else has stepped up, I certainly give her credit for throwing her name into the ring, but I do not see how she can do anything to get her closer in 2008 since Wolf seems popular.  

Daily Kos yesterday:

17 points is as close as anyone has ever gotten to Wolf. She's done better than any Democrat has ever done in the District. How can you say Judy isn't good enough?

Also:

2008 is actually a better year for Dems than was 2006. And while Judy did great in 2006, the truth is that the 10th district is a district that likes to see candidates a second time.

It took Frank Wolf three times to win his seat.

My understanding is that Blue Majority is looking to back candidates who aren't top tier, and may be a bit of a risk, but who seem to have an opportunity for a pick up and are progressive candidates.

The RPV is already attacking Judy...that never happened last year. Apparently the Republican Party of VA is VERY concerned about the 10th district because they know with Warner at the top of the ticket Democratic turnout will be huge.

There's a definite potential for a pick-up in the 10th.

Very interesting thread on the 10th district for several different perspectives. I think each commenter comes makes a good point.  The discussion on "blue dog" vs. "progressive" is a good one, especially in this district that has a lot of rural areas. I do think whoever does face Wolf( presumably Feder) has a real difficult challenge just because he seems like a real nice guy who works on local issues.  

is "seems"

Seriously, my friend, I know that you're a big fan of Feder, a paid consultant in fact.  But, 17 points behind makes her "a definite potential for a pick-up???"

Com'on now.  When Jim Webb started his quixotic campaign against Allen he started only 10 points down.  And don't think that Wolf will hand Judy a Macaca Moment.  

Finally, look at the 10th CD.  Lots and lots of red precincts between Fairfax County and the West Virginia line.  I realize that all those dairy cows in the Shennandoah don't vote, but their owners vote early and vote often.  And they love Frank Wolf.

Let's look at 2007's Senate races:

Loudoun County:

Karen Schultz: 7,285 (52.1%)
Jill Holtzman-Vogel: 6,135 (43.9%)

Mark Herring: 21,940 (56.3%)
Patricia Phillips: 16,975 (43.6%)

Dem votes in Loudoun: 29,225 (55.8%)
Rep votes in Loudoun: 23,110 (44.2%)

---

Loudoun County is probably the most rapidly changing county politically in the entire country. More than 2/3 of the vote in the 10th is in Loudoun and Fairfax (actually more in Fairfax!). This is a winnable district for Judy.

You can't count the Herring-Phillips race. Phillips spent a minor amount of money and was essentially a sacrificial lamb. And anyways, Wolf is a lot more liked in this district than any of those four.

I'd be curious as how Republican state senators did in CD-09, but that doesn't mean Boucher is in danger anytime soon.

But it is further proof, looking at the trends in Loudoun, that the 10th is rapidly changing.

1/3 of the district is in Fairfax, 1/3 Loudoun, 1/3 the rest. The key is to drive up the turnout in Fairfax + Loudoun and identify new Democrats and Demo/indy's that voted in the Feb Presidential primary and convince those people to vote for Judy. There will be a large number of voters that have never voted before in CD 10 that vote for the Presidency this fall, and that don't have a history of voting for Wolf.

New voters, reducing/eliminating Dem crossovers that vote for Wolf, and targeting independents can produce a Feder victory

about a zillion times, just like people keep saying Tom Perriello "can't win," Glenn Nye "can't win," etc., etc. Is there any point to repeating this over and over again, as opposed to actually trying to win these elections?

Some of us just wonder why you spend so much time and energy tilting at windmills when the outcome is pretty clear to the rest of us.

in a democracy is now "tilting at windmills."  Yeah, let's all just concede the 5th, 10th, 2nd, etc. to the Republicans...brilliant!

How come the Wolf campaign is spending so much time trying to convince the press she has no shot. And why would they spend so much time planting stories in the press about her out of state fundraising. And why would the RPV send out a press release specifically aimed at attacking Judy?

Dems had double the turnout in the 10th for the primary as did the GOP. The VA GOP is apoplectic about what will come in November, and they are well aware Wolf could be in dangerous territory if a bunch of new voters (who have no history of voting for Wolf) turnout in 08.

Wolf and the RPV are worried about the 10th, and with good reason.  

Wolf is worried, no doubt about it.  As well he should be, despite all the naysayers...

I think if the Feder campaign realized a few things, they would do much better. They obviously have a very bright candidate and they have money. Also, I like Judy Feder, but she needs to alter her campaign style if she wants more votes.

First off. They need a first rate campaign staff that knows and understands the 10th District. Not a bunch of kids, or people from New Jersey. They need a pro from Northern Virginia or Winchester - who really understands the politics and people of the 10th. Their website last time was rarely up to date. So far, her website this time around seems better. She certainly is intelligent, but she needs to work on her delivery.

Judy needs to not be as aggressive towards Frank Wolf.  She comes across a little too shrill - and seems to be attacking this somewhat fragile looking, respected older man. (I heard this over and over.) She needs to speak forcefully but respectfully at him.  Disagree with all due respect. I know people that were for her until they saw her in that debate, and they did not like how she treated him. They also didn't like some of that surprise popping up stuff at his campaign headquarters, etc. I think there's one thing that this area expects out of their officials -- and that's an ability to disagree and still be polite.  That "in your face" politicking does not go over well here.  She does care and gets that across, but it needs to be softened.  

She needs to have more substance in her solutions.  Better health care is not enough.  Have an actual plan and describe it in detail.  Against Iraq is not enough. Have a actual, specific plan of how to get out.  Northern Virginia traffic - the acknowledgement that it is horrific is not enough.  What specifically can be done about it? Where's the beef?

Professional staff, respectful attitude towards the Congressman, and some solid, detailed solutions on our problems - could just get Judy Feder elected. Also, she should embrace the "need to change how things are done in Washington" theme. People are looking for people who will work with both sides of the aisle and get things done. I think that would work very well in the 10th.

Just my two cents.

Though should probably be taken with a grain of salt considering that Judy's mantra in 2006 was: "if you want to change Washington you need to change the people you send there" and you seem not to be aware of it.

She doesn't need to "embrace" the change theme. She led the way on the change theme two years ago. Nothings changed.

She lost by over 16 points in an election where the Democrats swept 22 Republican incumbants and took another 9 open seats that were previously Republican, the biggest single Democratic victory in the House since 1974.

It sounds to me like the Feder Fans just don't want to listen to good advice.  Isn't this another example of saying, "we'd rather lose and be politically pure than do what it takes to win?"  

Judy cut Wolf's previous margin of victory in half in '06 and got closer than anyone had since 1982. Remember Frank ran and lost twice (1976 and 1978) before he won in '80.

She's already running much stronger than in 2006. Not only will she have increased name id, and existing grassroots and donor bases. She's also already raised much more than she had at this point in 2006 and is on the DCCC's radar much earlier.

Is that Feder still has a long way to go and she needs to use every advantage that she can.  After all, even if she cuts Wolf's margin of victory by 99.9%, she still loses.

I don't know alot about the 10 CD, but I have lots of family in the 5 CD (Franklin County) and have spent a good bit of time out there throughout my life.  What Tink has to say about civility and respect resonates with me, based on that experience.  People in the rural counties don't like "outsiders" and they certainly don't like their elected officials being treated with disrespect.  Constituent services are viewed as a matter of faith and something that deserve loyalty on election day.  This is what Feder is up against.

What's your "good advice?" I'm all ears, because so far the only thing I've heard is that Judy can't win, which is not "good advice."

I disagree a little. Campaign staff has never been the issue for Feder. Try finding all local staff for the salary and hours most are paid and work.  I do think she has come off in the past as being very shrill and too much on the aggressive attack against a man who has been in office so long and even has friends on the other side of the aisle. That technique works very well in a progressive or strongly moderate district but probably not the 10th. Although Wolf definitely has a strong partisan streak, much of the stuff he has done in the district like showing up at schools, community events and constituent work have a nonpartisan feel. Its tough beating a nice guy and one must credit Feder for trying.