I've heard it said a few times that whoever wins the Democratic primary for the 11th District House seat will almost certainly win the election come November. While I agree that the Dems have a strong shot at picking up this seat -- and I sure hope we do - a prominent figure in Fairfax County politics recently suggested several reasons to me why we should avoid being overconfident about this race.
First, remember that this district has been specifically gerrymandered to elect a Republican. The 11th CD is shaped like a jumbo shrimp, with its head in Fairfax County but its tail stretching deep into Prince William. As a result, even as Fairfax has turned steadily bluer, the 11th remains only purple at best. Even Jim Webb, with all of his crossover appeal, managed to pull only 54% of the vote in the 11th just two years ago. Two years before that, Bush lost Fairfax County - but managed to win the 11th by a point. And of course, Tom Davis from 1994-2006 just kept winning and winning and winning.
Second, the Republican looking to replace good ol' Uncle Tom has some advantages of his own that we best not overlook. He is, not to put too fine a point on it, made of money - with $600,000 in his campaign bank account, half of it from his own pocket. He has Davis's backing, which may not win him many votes in RK territory (and didn't help Tom's wife much), but will help in some places - like it or not, Tom Davis was relatively popular. And as a businessman rather than a professional Republican pol full of right-wing baggage, Fimian may be able to position himself in the center, as the Second Coming of Tom Davis. (Oh lord, I can almost hear the WaPo singing hymns to him already!)
Third, while the election of 2008 certainly ought to favor Democrats for every reason imaginable, from Iraq to the economy to one of the most unpopular presidents in history, so far this election has proven somewhat unpredictable. Voters seem almost determined to buck the conventional wisdom, whatever it happens to be at the moment.
The bottom line, then, is that Dems in the 11th better make sure that we nominate the candidate who is best positioned to win the election, rather than considering this race to be (in the immortal words of George Tenet) a "slam-dunk". So which Democrat would that be? Hard to say at this point. Doug Denneny's Iraq war veteran background or Gerry Connolly's pro-business leanings could make either of them more attractive in the conservative areas. On the other hand, Leslie Byrne did better running statewide (in her bid for lieutenant governor) than many people expected - although, in the end, she still lost that one.
A challenging race may call for nominating an experienced hand like Gerry or Leslie. And yet, in a year when politics as usual is less popular than ever, neither of those two pols can exactly claim to be a fresh, new face. On that score, Denneny would clearly have the advantage. And we may need that type of advantage running against a businessman like Fimian, who, paradoxically, may be able to make a case for himself as both the face of change (not a professional politician) and of continuity (aspiring clone of Tom Davis).
What do you think, boys and girls?
2010 we want a Dem Governor to be in the state house and we want a fair reapportionment deal cut between the Governor and the two houses of the legislature so that our districts reflect genuine communities of interest as opposed to the interests of politicians. They are supposed to serve us. Davis and Connolly have perverted this principle. Davis is going to go off now and make his millions.