Have not heard much about Drakes opponent but she does seem to be in a very vulnerable district. The 11th will be a democratic pickup.  The 10th (Wolf) and 5th (Goode) are probably wishful thinking at this point but anything is certainly possible. We had our big chance in the 10th in 2006 and really came up short. No offense to Feder, but the 10th is probably not her best fit after looking at 2006. Retirement will probably be our best chance here but anything is certainly possible and I give her credit for trying.  

vagoleft I am going to respectfully disagree with you. I think that saying the 5th CD is "wishful thinking" is not taking into account the many positive and promising aspects of Perriello's campaign. First, if you look at the primary results in the 5th, Hillary received more votes than any of the GOP candidates, and Obama received more than any of the Republican candidates combined. Secondly, I hate to base a serious amount of justification for the outcome of a race on money, but it is frankly a component. Perriello in the last quarter out raised Goode 3 to 1. Thirdly, have you seen Tom speak? He is unlike any candidate I have ever seen run against Rep. Goode. He is not only a well-informed, charismatic speaker not unlike Senator Obama, but he has precise plans to help and change the district in ways Goode has failed to do. I assure you if you go and hear him speak you will see exactly what I'm talking about. Lastly, I think that the dedicated and concerted effort (and the over 1,400 volunteer hours!) behind his campaign can speak for itself.

I think it's about time we have a candidate who has taken what we've learned from Richards, Weed and others and win the 5th!

I have to say I know very little other than what I have read on the net about Periello and I have never heard him speak in person. No doubt he is a great candidate but Virgil Goode is in the good old boy network in most of the district. This is probably why he did not make the list. Once again, this is not taking anything away from Perriello but its so tough coming from his area of the district taking on someone like Goode just because of overall district demographics. In fairness, very few if any candidates could go into this district and not be considered a huge underdog.  

Well I think it's a little unfair to judge a race based strictly on what you've read online about the candidate. In  my mind at least, an incumbent like Rep. Goode is voted for based on the fact that people know him and aren't motivated or influenced to vote for anyone else. Perriello is the candidate to show the people in the 5th that they DO have an option other than their current leadership. And yes, I do understand the demographics of the 5th since I live there but I also know that Perriello has ways to appeal to a broader range of voters other than the democrats in Charlottesville which includes founding faith based organizations such as Faithful America and incorporating a more moral message into his campaign which will appeal to people all the way from Greene to Danville.  

But I am nowhere near convinced that the 5th is worth putting the same kind of resources into that the 2nd, 10th and 11th are.  It's not that there's anything wrong with Tom Perriello. It's that the 5th District was custom drawn for Virgil Goode and that Virgil is dug in and entrenched as perfectly as any Congressman could ever hope to be.  

I have never seen a single poll of the 5th District showing a challenger to Virgil Goode getting even into the low 40's.  Show me a reputable poll where Perriello breaks into the low 40's and then I might be willing to change my mind. He'd make a good Congressman. We just have so many really, really good targets this year that there are more likely pick-ups to put the money into.

I think the balance in the 5th District started to shift two years ago when Al Weed met, just barely, the threshold you set.  In 2006, the vote for Al Weed was 40%.  That was up 4% from his run in 2004.   Tom Perriello would be a strong candidate in any district and his comfort speaking in the language of values and religion is a great asset in this district. Come meet him and hear him speak at this Saturday's Fund Raiser in Charlottesville.   I think he'll convince you that if anyone has a chance of flipping the 5th, it's him.  The DCCC would do well to support his race.

until the 2010 redistricting, provided that the Democrats can recapture the House of Delegates in 2009.  

to see Thelma there too.

It is exciting to see the DCCC take an interest in Virginia, but I'd wish they demonstrate a better understanding of Virginia politics.

Kellam was an outstanding Democratic candidate that was designed almost perfectly to win the 2nd District, especially in an off-year where turnout would be lower than in the presidential year.  Are we to expect that in a Presidential year the 2nd will be more Democratic leaning than in 2006?

On the other hand, I think they are underestimating Goode's vulnerabilities.  The 5th is a big district and very difficult to organize in at first, but I think that once you get a strong campaign up and running the district becomes very possible for a Democratic pickup.  The changing demographics in the district favor Democrats, the northern more Democratic end is growing while Goode's base is on the decline.  Even the Richmond exurbs like Farmville are in play.  Hopefully the DCCC will reconsider their judgments.

From the beginning, he waffled on the war, and followed the DLC "me too" line on everything else. Unable to differentiate himself from Drake, and running basically nothing but anti-Thelma ads on TV, he gave people no real reason to vote for him other than the Kellam name. From what I've heard, this was on the advice of his paid DC consultant, who apparently didn't have a clue. Kellam pretty much sank himself.

Glenn Nye is a much better candidate, but is starting from zero name recognition in a district that will probably go for McCain even with Obama on the ballot. (With Clinton on the ballot, Drake can run against her and ignore Nye completely.) Still, with sufficient backing and a better approach, Glenn can make a better run of it than Kellam did.

I don't know if you're from the Second District.  I, however, am.  I've lived there my entire life, and been involved in it's politics since the day I was born (my Dad was district chair for many years).  Both Mathieson and Bouchard were able to win because the Beach is pretty Democratic on bread-and-butter state issues.  It went for Kaine pretty solidly, after all.  But on federal issues, it's something else.

Even with his strong military background, Jim Webb lost Virginia Beach, by more than Kellam did.  Kellam lost NOT because he was conservative, but because DC-paid morons refused to let him define himself.  

Now, I don't know much about Nye.  He seems like a decent fellow.  But his chances?  Not much.  First of all, this area adores John McCain.  Obama will get crushed here.  Second, though they aren't big fans of Drake, they are distrustful of liberal Democrats.  Phil Kellam did the first part right: he convinced people it wasn't about party for him.  However, he was unable to convince people that he was any better than Drake.  He started off the race way ahead, but the fact that he got in the mud and wallowed with Thelma ruined his chances.

Kellam was the best shot we've had at that seat since Owen Pickett had it.  On paper, you couldn't ask for a better candidate.  Now the execution was horrible.  Lesson: don't trust DC insiders to run your campaign.  DC Democrats know absolutely JACK about the Second District, and have no business running a campaign there.  We either need some serious re-districting to include more of Norfolk (which would actually make sense, seeing how the two cities thrive off of each other), or we need somebody the likes of Jody Wagner.  Don't get me wrong, I wish Mr. Nye all the best, and would be thrilled if he won.  I just think that the chances are very, very low.  The DCCC is counting on how unpopular Thelma is.  But McCain, combined with the fact that nobody knows who Nye is, should make this race more like 2004, a 10-point beatdown by Drake, than the squeaker that was 2006.

and I have no illusions about Glenn Nye's chances. But as far as Phil Kellam being the ideal candidate, I have no illusions about that, either. It was his campaign, and his consultants didn't keep him from defining himself. He could have done so if he wanted to. All he had to do was think for himself.

and for that reason I think she could be beatable.  We got to keep pressing her on the issues. Energy and ideas will win, and Nye has got to have both.  Obama has them and Mark Warner has them. We don't know yet if Nye has them or not.    

Votes win elections, and Drake has recieved them in three consecutive tough races, including one where she was a national target up against a highly-touted candidate.

Thelma is beatable, but Nye faces big challenges in money, name recognition, and running as a first-time candidate against a well-funded/entrenched incumbent.  We'll see.

I'm just not sure if it is legitimate to assume she can be beaten this year.  2010 might be a better shot.

The demographics of the district keep shifting, and they keep plugging away at it.  I also think the DCCC is also betting on this district because they know that this should be a Dem-offensive year.  They have much, much better funding than their GOP counterparts, particularly after all the money the GOP was forced to sink into special elections recently.  They're going to target a wide number of districts, and the Republicans are basically going to be forced into surrendering at least a few of them.  Maybe VA-2 will be one of them, maybe not.

I vote in this district, but I'm not going to get into Phil Kellam's or Jim Webb's 2006 campaigns here, except to say that from where I'm sitting, it looks like a lot of people are about 80% right.  But it's the 20% where people are wrong that makes all the difference.

"Now, I don't know much about Nye.  He seems like a decent fellow.  But his chances?  Not much.  First of all, this area adores John McCain.  Obama will get crushed here."

With the political atmosphere the way it is right now, people are more apt to split the ticket and vote for Nye if they also cast a vote for McCain.

You're absolutely right that Goode is very vulnerable. Every week Perriello raises more money and convinces more citizens of the 5th that what the district needs is change.

The DCCC has only announced their first wave of targeted races. They will announce more after the end of the first fiscal quarter (March 31). A lot of the decision is based on fund raising, and Tom is working hard to reach the fund raising goals the DCCC has set. If you want to see more races in Virginia targeted by the DCCC, and see more of Virginia turn blue,  give now to Tom Perriello!