Warner is a frighteningly logical pick for the VP spot, with the seemingly insurmountable catch that he committed to running for U.S. Senate from Virginia as soon as Republican John Warner announced his retirement in early September.
Warner, 53, would bring more than just his home state popularity to an Obama-led ticket. He would also provide the executive experience missing from Obama's r+¬sum+¬, and in a campaign in which the economy is increasingly taking center stage, Warner's business background-he amassed a fortune investing in technology companies and helping to launch Nextel-would boost the ticket's credibility on the subject. And as a centrist with a knack for winning Republican support, his presence could make Obama viable even in some Southern states.More to the point, Warner and Obama are in many ways cut from the same stylistic cloth. They're both believers in a less ideological, future-vs.-past type of politics. Warner's signature gubernatorial achievement was a tax reform package that raised rates for some in order to preserve the state's bond rating and to create new revenue for public education. In a tax-phobic state, he enlisted crucial support from business leaders and Republicans-including Senator John Warner-to push the plan through the Legislature.
So if Obama picks him, how does Mark Warner get past the conundrum that is his Senate campaign? The Observer lays out a few ways:
The most obvious replacement would be Kaine, whose own gubernatorial term runs through 2009. Kaine enjoys strong statewide popularity and would almost certainly defeat Gilmore, the Republican. But there are problems.One risk would be a potential backlash against Kaine for trying to leave his job in the middle of his term. Also, it's far from clear that he'd even be interested in moving to the Senate.
Perhaps the better solution, for those of us who remember him fondly as Lieutenant Governor:
But if not Kaine, Warner would find an able, willing and popular Senate replacement in Don Beyer, who served as lieutenant governor from 1989 through 1997, when he narrowly lost the gubernatorial race to Gilmore. A businessman from northern Virginia, the 57-year-old Beyer has eyed a return to elected politics since that '97 defeat (an upset loss brought about by the late success of Gilmore's anti-car-tax campaign) but hasn't taken the plunge. He was prepared to run for the Senate this year had his close friend Warner not decided to enter.
And while it wouldn't have the same marquee lineup of a Warner-Gilmore showdown, I think a lot of people would really be gunning for a rematch of the Beyer-Gilmore 1997 contest -- although this time, armed with the knowledge that Gilmore lied and misled Virginia voters during the first campaign!
The chances to take over the Virginia Senate seat are still very good, even if Mark Warner is on the ballot in a different position:
But the biggest boost to Beyer-or any other replacement candidate-would be the fact that Warner would still be on the ballot, at the top of the ticket with Obama. That means that Democrats might actually be favored to carry the state-perhaps lopsidedly-at the presidential level for first time in decades, a windfall that would surely trickle down the ballot.
Obama-Warner '08!
We do have plenty of names to choose from though.
He and Mark Warner would only highlight the dearth of national experience. And Warner is a far better opponent against Gilmore. We need him here.
2. John Marshall has never run for office, despite feelers put out to him. He has a solid law enforcement background, and he is Thurgood Marshall's son, but he's still an unknown quantity.
3. Don Beyer hasn't run since his failed run for governor 10 years ago. Payne hasn't run since his failed run for lieutenant governor 7 years ago. Is either of them really ready to try again?
1. It is three years later, and Fraim's got a re-election under his belt. If Mark Warner asks him to run for the U.S. Senate, that's a lot different than Kaine asking to be his LG. Especially considering that Fraim would be in a unique position to comment on how Gilmore screwed over localities.
2. Again, he's a guy who people have just floated his name about. Jim Webb was a reluctant candidate at first, but given a groundswell of support, John Marshall could be just as good a candidate. He's got the compelling life story, and he's got a weaker opponent. Draft John Marshall, anyone?
3. I think Beyer is the best prepared of all of them, because while he has stayed out of the limelight, he's still been very active in politics, has the networking, and is prepared to run again. I would imagine most of Warner's machine could be transferred to Beyer.
So I don't think he would be interested in the VP.
But sure, it makes good political sense from a national perspective to put Warner on the ticket -- actually, both for Obama and Clinton. But whoever wrote this doesn't know much about Virginia, IMHO.
Kaine can't leave office early, since it would mean a GOP Governor. Forget "backlash," (whatever the heck that even means) -- I just don't see how that is acceptable in any degree.
Also, Beyer? Maybe I'm missing something, but that seems like the kind of name only someone from outside the state would throw into the mix. His 1997 loss was not a narrow one (Beyer got a whopping 43%).
and Warner cannot simultaneously run for Senate and VP the way Lyndon Johnson and Joe Lieberman did - unless you can show me something otherwise in the Virginia Code
I think he's going to go after someone a little older w/more experience, especially military/foreign policy.
Do we know anyone who meets those specs? Hmmm, let's think about that.