I realize the CW is that Goode is unbeatable, but I don't think so.

When Tom says this is a contest of the "common good vs. Virgil Goode," that is an excellent framing, but when he goes on to say "this is not a campaign against Virgil Goode, this is a campaign for ideas," I understand what he is getting at, but it gets muddled.

Somehow, he needs to fine tune the message that this is not a campaign against Virgil Goode the person, but against Virgil Goode, the wrong representative for this district at this particular time.

The most important issue, IMHO, heading into the fall in VA-05 will be the economy and economic development, mostly in Southside. While C'ville and Albermarle will certainly feel the effects of the coming recession, UVA insulates those areas to a degree not present in the remainder of the district. For Southside to to come back, it will need investment from the Federal Government, the State and private industry.

Tom should note that Virgil Goode has done the best he could, that he has really tried to serve the district, but given the changing priorities and the tide in both Washington, DC and Richmond, that he is a poor position to help on any of these scores, despite his best intentions.

It isn't because Goode is a Conservative Republican. It's because he's a Republican who until recently was a Democrat, but switched parties. It's because, fairly or unfairly, Goode has come to represent an bigoted, extremist wing of the Conservative movement that is becoming increasingly margainalized. and it is because, fairly or unfairly, Goode has associated himself with the kind of immigrant bashing and scandal (MZM) that makes private industry very wary.

Add to that the religious basis of Tom's worldview which is very appealing, enough money, a reasonable grassroots operation in Southside (don't expect to match Virgil here) and an aggressive GOTV effort in the C'ville area (which enjoys steady population growth), and a win is certainly possible.

Also, this is an area where Obama at the top of the ticket would help -- and I say that as a Hillary supporter.

But to be fair, I'm in C'ville, and I can't really say I understand the Southside voter on a gut, instinctual level, so if someone wants to say I'm just whistling past the graveyard, I really have no response.

Another neat thing to see was the highly professional and dedicated team that Tom is putting together to run this campaign.  It is powerful to see how young people are retaking responsibility for the political process.  We can do this.

Tom can and will do it. Goode already admits that this is going to be the toughest fight of his political life. Tom has reached out to the entire district like no other Democrat has done in the last few years, and his message of positive and important change is resonating with everyone from C'ville to Danville.  

Tom should note that Virgil Goode has done the best he could, that he has really tried to serve the district, but given the changing priorities and the tide in both Washington, DC and Richmond, that he is a poor position to help on any of these scores, despite his best intentions.

That's an important distinction that isn't sufficiently understood by Democratic activists within (and especially without) the district. Goode can't be attacked. He's a very nice, very likable, very capable guy. Really, I challenge anybody to sit down with him and have a conversation and not like him. Anybody attacking Goode, or even speaking badly of him, is only going to create more supporters for Goode.

Here is the link to WJ - click through to the Minny Post article.

http://waldo.jaquith.org/blog/...

Anyway, I don't know much about Ellison beyond the fact that he is a Muslim. Based on this he is obviously a pretty decent guy.

But it also says a ton about Goode and what a nice guy he is on a personal level, and how many of his constituents see him. When he made these remarks about Ellison, he seems like some wide-eyed raving lunatic bigot, but after getting to know him, even the immediate object of that bigotry takes a different, mre benign view of the whole incident.

I'm not defending what Goode did or said -- bigotry is bigotry, and this stuff was unambiguously bigoted -- but the closer you get to Goode, the more sympathetic a character he is. And the more the media makes him into a caricature, the more his constituents identify with him as misunderstood.

Seeing Tom is believing he can do it. It's rare to have an "ideas guy" who's also so honorable and tuned in to the ground game.  

Perriello outraised Goode 3:1 in "net dollars" for ALL of 2007 - that's since he entered the race in September, compared with Goode's fundraising for the whole year.

Thanks for coming, Lowell!

she is but one example of the very sharp people who are working for Tom.

I was also at the event.  One of the more moving moments was one of the many who works in the non-profit world talking about how he was digging dip to help Tom, and was urging others to as well, whereupon Tom interrupted and said that the young man had given 4,600 -  that IS legal, 2,300 ech for primary and general, although maybe he meant he and his fiancee had each given 2,300?  

Anyhow, it was an impressive level of personal commitment.

It reminds me somewhat of Jim Webb.   Let me explain.  In Jim's campaign we constantly encountered people who had known Jim before, and who were incredibly loyal to him and dedicated to him.  Some, like Nelson Jones and Mac, gave up their jobs to come and work for Jim.  Many of the people last night knew Tom from his other endeavors, and were willing to show a similar level of commitment.

It was impressive.

I will sometime soon be doing a diary at big orange (aka dailykos) trying to help make that community aware of the quality candidate Virginia has in the 5h CD.