RK ARCHIVE - New Polls by Zogby, Rasmussen Show Gains by Obama

Clinton seems to have support from "early deciders," while "most" people making up their minds now are breaking for Obama. Also, "

These latest results show a continuing trend in Obama's favor. Also, "Clinton leads 'substantially' among those who made up their minds more than a month ago, but Obama leads almost 'two-to-one' among those who made up their minds recently."

Clinton holds a slim lead that has diminished steadily in past weeks...the trend appears to favor Obama, as late deciders are more likely to support him over her."

Earlier polling by other firms had shown Clinton with a much larger lead in a state that was once considered favorable to her.

Increasingly, it's looking like Barack Obama will win Texas and possibly even pull out an upset in Ohio on Tuesday. If Obama wins both big states, even top Clinton supporters (including Bill Clinton) admit that the Democratic nomination contest will de facto be over. A more mixed result could mean that this race might continue until Pennsylvania on April 22, but something tells me that this coming Tuesday will prove decisive. Then, it will be time for Democrats to unify quickly against Republican nominee John McCain.

Comments

Clinton Camp changing it's tune (DanG - 2/29/2008 1:54:53 PM)

""But it's also about who's got the momentum," he said. If Clinton takes two out of the three remaining big-state primaries -- Ohio, Texas (also on Tuesday) and Pennsylvania (April 22) -- she will win the nomination, Ruvolo predicted."

It used to be if she won all three. Now it's two out of three. And the "anti-Clinton" press keeps allowing her to do this crap.

Dang (aznew - 2/29/2008 3:04:51 PM)

Penn seems to be laying the groundwork for Clinton to remain in the campaign even if she fails to win both Ohio and Texas.

In fact, according to him memo, he seems to be arguing Clinton could lose both states and still have a rationale for not dropping out.

I have long maintained that if Clinton fails to score convincing victories in these two states that she find a graceful way to exit the campaign. I still think that is exactly what will happen.

I also noted the other day that in these final days we would see a lot of last-ditch, desperation efforts flying around to see whether anything would stick. This is an example of that.

Unless Clinton wins convincingly on Tuesday, the calls for her to call it quits will get quite loud, and she will do the right thing. Maybe not right away, but before Pennsylvania.

And for all you Hillary-Haters out there, I don't even think she will do the right thing because she is a wonderful person, but because it will clearly be in her self-interest to do so.

C'mon (aznew - 2/29/2008 3:45:02 PM)

I would hope you would think I don't think like that.

But, if is necessary -- I have always clearly drawn a distinction between criticism leveled at Clinton and rants directed at her that seem divorced from any fair reading of the facts at hand, rants that almost universally commit the logical fallacy of begging the question.

The mini-to-do over the Obama in native garb picture is a recent example. Folks were just so certain that Matt Drudge was to be believed and that it was a dastardly deed by the Clinton campaign.

The Diary here a few days ago is a textbook example of the technique. Even though Wolfson had clearly denied any involvement in the matter by that time, the dairy called it:

a new low for the tactics of the Clinton campaign.

The diary inaccurately stated:

They [the Clinton Campaign] have not, by the way, denied being the source of the whole thing.

you and your staff have no excuse to indulge in the same sleazy gutter politics.

At least the diary had the decency to mention that the diarist wasn't accusing Mrs. Clinton of personal involvement in the matter.

Anyway, did you read the entire post? It is actually critical of Clinton, at least insofar as it takes the position that it is unlikely that Tuesday's results will warrant her continuing her campaign. Even the very sentence that you cite could be read to be critical of Clinton.

Interesting that you chose to focus on a single clause that was merely a rhetorical device to set up a point, and was not the point of either the post or even the sentence of which it was a part.

Clinton: Now and In The Future (Flipper - 2/29/2008 5:31:38 PM)

This latest Penn memo fascinates me and perhaps points to personal decisions made by Hillary Clinton about a future run for president.

First of all, it is very difficult to bounce back after 11 straight losses in presidential primaries/caucuses. So even though Clinton was ahead in Ohio and Texas by fairly good size margins after the Wisconsin primary, it was obvious that momentum and money was on Obama's side at that point to win either Texas, Ohio, or perhaps both. Just looking at how delegates were allocated in Texas indicates how much trouble Clinton was going to have in Texas. And Bill Clinton was very vocal, as were others, especially in the press, that Clinton had to win both of these states if she was to have a chance at the nomination.

And now Penn's memo seems to be laying the ground work for Clinton to stay in the race, as aznew pointed out above.

It seems to me that Clinton has decided against a future presidential run. We don't know what will happen this fall but lets be honest, Obama, if he is the nominee, could lose this fall, opening a window for Clinton in 2012, as she would only be 64 years old. The exact same window would be open to her in 2012 if McCain wins this fall, because, based on his age, he could very well be a one term president.

But all of these attempts by Clinton and her campaign to keep moving forward make no sense unless she really has ruled out running again in the future. The strategy of win at all costs, including staying in the race after Texas and Ohio, will simply burn too many bridges and permananetly etch in future primary voters minds that she didn't get out when she should have.

I think if she was really interested in a future run, she might have ended the race this week on her terms, as opposed to next week on the voters terms. But I guess I will have to wait until next week.