The latest RK poll asked readers which congressional district (CD) offers the best shot at a pickup for Democrats this year. With 140 votes, the answer was clear: the 11th CD, where Rep. Tom Davis (R) has announced his retirement and where either Leslie Byrne or Gerry Connolly are likely to be the Democratic nominee. Given that this district has been trending increasingly "blue" in recent years, and is now pretty much solidly Democratic, the 77 people (55%) who voted for the 11th appear to be right on the money.
Aside from the 11th, the RK poll indicated a degree of optimism about other districts as well, including the 5th (Rep. Virgil Goode vs. likely Democratic nominee Tom Perriello), the 2nd (Rep. Thelma Drake vs. likely Democratic nominee Glenn Nye), and the 10th (Rep. Frank Wolf vs. likely Democratic nominee Judy Feder). We'll see how these races shape up after nominees are definitely decided in June.
Finally, 30 votes went to "2-3 of these" districts, indicating a fair degree of optimism that Democrats can pick up the 11th plus 1-2 others. That sounds about right to me. What do you think?
BUT ... we still must work as if our candidate is in a very close race, always emphasizing the strong positives.
T.C.
Periello seems like the right candidate (FAR FAR FAR superious to Al Weed, who's supporters still insist on pretending he was a good candidate), but Virgil Goode is a staple of the Fifth District. Good money says he isn't going anywhere, though maybe Periello can't dent him a bit.
Glenn Nye seems like a nice young guy, and he may have a future down in Virginia Beach, but it has yet to be seen whether her is a Bobby Mathieson/Joe Bouchard, or whether he is a David Ashe (not a compliment). He's gonna have to connect with voters down there on the issues that matter and frame the issues debate on bread-and-butter, and don't try to fight Thelma on her turf. If Republican hot-button issues become the center of the campaign, Thelma will win again, and by bigger numbers than 2006 (think the 2004 10-point-thwomping of Ashe).
Frank Wolf is solidly incumbent, and even though Judy has lots of money, I expect another double digit win by the Wolf team. Feder was barely outspent in 2006, a great year for Dems, in a district that Webb won. What that proves to me is that money wasn't the issue. Of course, Feder has a primary opponent, but he won't get the nomination, and even if he did, Turner would start off with no money. Turner's resume is far more impressive, and I think he'd be a more competetive nominee if properly funded, but Feder has a lot of left-over good will from 2006. Still, I have little confidence in her ability to win when she lost so big in 2006, which was a better year for Dems than this year will be.
I'll admit, I don't know enough about Nye to pass judgment there yet, but see little as of now to indicate that race will be competetive. But we just have to keep Thelma on her toes, make her spend money. As long as we keep her coffers dry after every election, she stays an opportunity for us. But I really think Goode will be in his office for as long as he wants, and that Wolf will need a challenger other than Judy Feder to be in any real district (yes, you've heard it before, but I'll repeat it: Feder is just TOO LIBERAL for the 10th, which is NOT the 11th or 8th!).
Anyway, there's my rant.
You're also ignoring one, gigantic fact in your analysis -- this is a presidential year. Turnout will be way, way up, and therefore Judy has the opportunity to convince many people that didn't vote in '06 to pull the lever for her when they pull the lever for Mark Warner and Barack Obama. In presidential contests, VA-10 and VA-04 are more Democratic than VA-02 and VA-05 according to the Cook PVI. I would even argue that VA-10 is the most rapidly changing district in the region, booming and becoming much more blue.
Judy has an uphill struggle, no doubt -- any incumbent as intrenched as Frank Wolf is tought to beat. But 2006 very well could be a BETTER year for Dems than '06 -- turnout could be off the charts.