Ohio 2/13/08:

Clinton 51%
Obama 37%

Pennsylvania 2/12/08:

Clinton 52%
Obama 36%

...both polls were taken before the 2/12 results, and also I'd point out that there's still plenty of time for Obama to close the gap, particularly in PA (4/22).

Yes, Obama should put up enough of a fight in Pennsylvania to cut down Clinton's margins, but Ohio voters are much more likely to tip his way.

And unless Senator Obama can start making bigger inroads into the Hispanic vote, Texas remains iffy.

He has to take one of these three states, so the decision is a tactical one as to where to concentrate resources and Senator Obama's time.

I agree that they're all tough for Obama -- but I think he can do it.  Here's the counter to that.  The pundits have said that there's a split in the Democratic Party:

Obama has:
Men
African-Americans
Young voters
College-educated voters
Higher-income voters

Clinton has:
Women
Latinos
Older voters
Voters without a college education
Lower-income voters

In all of the collective contests, Clinton has not shown the ability to eat away into any of Obama's core constituencies.  However in many instances -- and in a good sign for Obama, particularly the most recent primaries -- Obama has been able to make dramatic inroads into Clinton's core constituencies, in fact winning most of them in Virginia and Maryland on Tuesday.

That, I think, is what bodes well for Obama.

is that Obama has been able to expand his base -- Hillary has not, and in fact she's seen hers shrinking.

Ohio: Obama Lands His A-Team.

These are the people who turned lily-white Iowa into Obama territory.  Of course, there is much less time to do that here, but the principle is the same.

If Obama can just keep it close in these states, it's a win for him.  He doesn't have to actually beat Hillary, just severely limit her delegate count.

from the Huffington Post:

Houston Key To Unlocking A Texas Win

Greater Houston holds more than a quarter of the total Texas delegates that Democratic contenders Clinton and Obama will be fighting over. Two forces, other than whatever magic the candidates themselves can bring, will shape the outcome--and no, one of them is not the Latino vote. The first shaping force is Houston herself, which is the second-most ethnically diverse city in the country. Only the five boroughs of New York have populations who have come from a larger number of different places around the world. The University of Houston is the most culturally diverse school in the nation.

This multiculturalism is immediately apparent at the Clinton Campaign Kickoff in Houston on Sunday afternoon. ...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

The mechanics of this favor Obama -- the majority black districts get many, many more delegates than the majority Latino districts (due to past performance and voter turnout, etc.), and we know that Obama is swamping Clinton in the black vote.

Moreover, and this is obviously COMPLETELY anecdotal -- I lived in Houston for 5 years. Houston will be an Obama town, it just meshes well demographically and in character. I don't have any numbers or facts to back that up, it's just my gut. It's not like LA where there are big city machines to GOTV for Hillary. Also, Latinos in Houston tend to be younger, which is good for Obama.

Austin and Dallas will also go heavily for Obama (except for some old guard Texas Democratic redoubts, like River Oaks in Houston and around SMU in Dallas), and many east Texas areas have large black populations that will favor Barack.

I don't see how Hillary wins Texas delegate-wise. I think Obama will end up winning Texas, vote wise, as well.

Ohio seems tougher to me.

Christine "Roz" Samuels, a super delegate from New Jersey who had previously endorsed Clinton, now backing Obama.

http://www.bluejersey.com/show...

Geoff Garin, who counts -- among many other notable names -- Mark Warner as a client, has this to say about the Democratic race:

"If Senator Obama wins by the same kind of margin, that will have a consequence. I think that this is a very different moment than occurred after Iowa. Then, people in the Democratic Party were not ready for it to be over. Now, this far into the process, I think the mood and the mindset is different, where Democrats are ready to coalesce around somebody who seems like they've emerged."

That was also in reference to next week's Wisconsin primary.  He said it yesterday on PBS's NewsHour.

Greatarticle from the Los Angeles Times regarding how grass-roots giving is reshaping campaign fundraising, and the Obama campaign has been particularly adept at cultivating it.

http://www.latimes.com/news/po...