Change is coming in the 5th District

By: cvllelaw
Published On: 2/13/2008 11:47:21 AM

(First posted at http://www.democraticcentral.com)
In a recent diary on Raising Kaine -- http://www.raisingkaine.com/sh... -- the author, Ridge Cook, said mildly -- even condescendingly -- laudatory things about Tom Perriello, and then explained why he couldn't win.  And he particularly criticized the leadership of the Charlottesville Democratic Committee and, I guess, the Fifth District Committee:
To the C'ville Dem Party leadership. Thanks for dropping the ball and not preparing for the day when Goode could be history. A Democrat is needed there Jan 2009, and you blew it. If you wait long enough, the Warner/Kaine administrations or Goode's own silliness will do your work for you.
And one of the responses was from someone who went on to say that his candidacy could HURT the presidential candidate in Virginia.

This is nuts, of course, but it is a theme I hear from others with enough frequency that it needs a response.
First, I guess he's talking about me.  I was the Charlottesville Democratic Party chair from 2001 to 2004, and I have been on the 5th District Committee since May, 2005.  (For what it is worth, I don't remember ever having met Mr. Cook, or having seen his name on a fundraising list or a list of supporters of Democratic candidates.  A quick look for donors on www.opensecrets.org, www.vpap.org, and www.fec.gov does not turn up any hit.  I get no response to "Ridge Cook" on Yahoo.  Maybe it's a pseudonym.  But I digress...)

In 2005, the Democrats in Charlottesville and Albemarle spearheaded the effort that threw out the entrenched 5th CD leadership that had not only not done anything positive, but in some cases had been affirmatively working for Virgil Goode and Watkins Abbitt.  It would take a book to cite all of the counter-productive things that the Southside-based leadership of the party (Prince Edward and south) had done; that's a topic that needs a bottle of wine or two and an hour or two.  Since 2005, we have tried to turn things around.  Under the leadership of Fred Hudson in Albemarle, we have solid finances.  Our fundraising dinners actually make money (unlike the fundraising dinner in 2002, which actually lost money -- go figure).  We support our candidates financially, and we are beginning to get meaningful reorganization in some counties that have not had organized Democratic leadership in years.  

And you know what started the change?  We ran Meredith Richards against Virgil Goode in 2002.  For the first time, Democrats around the District saw a reason to work for a Democrat.  Meredith only got about 36% of the vote, but she awakened something in parts of the District that hadn't been awakened in years.  And, by the way -- there was no one from Southside who wanted to run.

In 2004, we ran Al Weed.  Al's campaign raised more money in 2004, and more again in 2006, and the vote totals have moved up.  But it was obvious that Al was not the perfect candidate, and even the $600,000 that Al raised in 2006 wouldn't make a dent in Virgil's name recognition.

One of the big challenges facing Al was that the Party organization in some counties was either non-existent or (in Appomattox) working for Virgil Goode.  So one of the challenges has been to remake the county committees.  But the 5th District Chair cannot simply wave his magic wand and make new committees appear.  So we had to wait for the reorganization meetings in 2007.

Here's a good example -- Appomattox County.  In 2007, the reorganization meeting in Appomattox brought new life to the committee.  

And let me note WHY the 2007 re-organization brought new life.  It was because Connie Brennan took on a long-shot bid against long-time incumbent Watkins Abbitt.  She raised a lot of money and she campaigned hard and she awakened a lot of people in Watkins' hometown to the possibility that they can be represented by someone who cares about them.  This year, the Appomattox reorganization meeting was attended by 40 or 50 enthusiastic change-minded Democrats.  Similarly, in Pittsylvania, the chair after reorganization, Bob Neals, has brought new energy to the committee.  Things are looking up in some other committees as well -- Cumberland and Buckingham, for example, have both just come through bruising local controversies, with what I hope will be some unity.  

Now, I am not so naive as to think that the reorganization of a committee is going to single-handedly bump the 5th into the Democratic column (though Tim Kaine and Mark Warner both won the District, and Jim Webb came close).  But it has got to be worth a few percentage points to have an active Democratic committee.

So, to folks like Ridge Cook who complain about the "C'ville Dem Party leadership", I'll say this -- at least we're trying.  When the Party was in the control of Southsiders, it did nothing.  Stop whining and pointing fingers, and start looking for a reason why we can win rather than a reason why we will lose.  In 2006, no one thought that Jim Webb would beat the great George Allen.  The pundits told us that we could not win, and they had many good reasons -- George Allen was popular, Jim Webb wasn't from around here, Democrats were too liberal, etc.  But good things happen when you run candidates.  And good things never happen if you don't run candidates.

So, Mr. Cook -- come meet Tom Perriello.  You will be impressed -- as I was -- with his energy, his intelligence, his political acumen.  Meet his campaign staff.  You will be impressed with them as well.  And help us find reasons why we can win, rather than reasons why we will lose.  

We are under no illusions.  We know it is an uphill battle.  But it is a battle that can be won, and a battle that is worth the fight.

Join us!


Comments



I don't want to get into a dispute over the party here (aznew - 2/13/2008 1:49:50 PM)
because I don't really know about it.

That said, however, I want to second the notion that Virgil Goode is certainly beatable this year, and Tom can do it.

It is true, I live in Charlottesville city, so perhaps my perception is skewed. But I do believe in people, and the question people across the 5th will ask themselves this year is whether their representative in D.C. is doing a good job representing their interests.

The case can be made that Goode is not. Other legislators think he is toxic because of his bigoted, and well-publicized remarks, so that limits his influence. Unlike other parts of the state, Southside is hurting. People down there need help and hope of the kind Democrats can deliver, not the bigotry of a Virgil Goode that just gives folks a reason to lash out.  

Quite apart from anything specific to Goode, there is the general desire for change that is undeniable. And there is the crappy economy that generally works against the incumbent.

So, if you accept that Goode can be beat, then the issue is whether Tom Perriello can do it. Ridge Cook's basic argument seems to be that only a Democrat from Southside can win the District. Maybe he is right. Maybe people will only vote for people like themselves.

And maybe I'm naive, but I have more faith in the voters than that. Provide them with an honest, committed, energetic candidate with the financial ability to get his message out (regardless of where his money is from), and if folks think he will do the job for them, they'll vote for him.

Also, don't minimize the message of faith that Tom brings to his campaign. I'm a fairly religious person, and I, and I'll bet a lot of other people, are tired of faith being used a reason to divide folks, and are anxious for a leader like Tom who uses faith as part of a positive, progressive agenda. I know people who are not religious sometimes don't get this part, but it is meaningful stuff.

And last, but not least, I don't think the top of the ticket will make much difference in Southside. Obama at the top of the ticket might marginally benefit Tom if it ups turnout in the C'ville/Alberarle area.



No, that's not the dynamic. (Jack Landers - 2/13/2008 2:01:29 PM)
They aren't going to vote against Virgil Goode. If you start there then you're doomed. They like Virgil and don't really care how he votes.  Even Democratic party officials in some parts of the district don't like to go after him and probably still vote for him.  Look at Carl Eggleston, Sr., who was cozily working with Goode to get federal funding for projects in Farmville even while Eggleston was chair of the 5th District Dems.

The only way to beat Goode is to field a candidate whom they feel that they are voting FOR, rather than just against Goode. This will NEVER EVER EVER be someone from Charlottesville, so long as the district is drawn with it's current boundaries. You've got to find a major hometown hero or elder statesman type.  A few years ago, L.F. Payne still probably could have taken the seat back.

Also you have the whole weird grudge against Charlottesville on account of the 29 bypass thing, but that's a whole other story that I don't want to get into now.  



No (Ron1 - 2/13/2008 2:42:41 PM)
There are indeed districts where no Democrat can win -- the 5th is not one of those.

Don't make Virgil an issue? That's crazy. To defeat an incumbent, you ALWAYS have to convince the electorate why the incumbent should be replaced. If you can't do that, there's no chance of victory.

Politicians get away with shady dealings because the establishment press is moribund, and because it takes effort to stay informed. Virgil Goode stopped worrying about the citizens of his district a long time ago, and this needs to be screamed from the hilltops.

Absolutely, Tom Perriello should also advertise his vision of what he'll stand for and what change he'll try to produce.

There's no better year for a chance for change in the 5th. Barack alone got more votes in the 5th last night than all the Republicans combined, and overall turnout was approx 2:1 for the Dems in the 5th.  



Agree 100% (Lowell - 2/13/2008 2:45:05 PM)
As Steve Jarding taught me, you have to do TWO things to defeat an incumbent:

1. Convince enough people that the incumbent should be replaced
2. Convince enough people that YOU should replace the incumbent.

You have to have both parts, or it won't work.



to the point (Alter of Freedom - 2/13/2008 8:29:19 PM)
going after Virgil Goode the man has been tried and tried again and will fail again. The 5th needs to stop trying to find the "perfect" candidate, that is exactly what the folks in the 5th do not want. They want someone very much like themselves and cares about many of the things they care about and while Goode misteps quite often you could hardly portray him as Washington "insider". NO. My Congressman in Eric Cantor has that title all locked up unfortunately.
You will have to shelf the personal attacks on Goode and go after a more economic campaign similar to what will be waged by Mark Warner in his Senate bid.


Stupid is as stupid does... (Doug in Mount Vernon - 2/13/2008 3:24:51 PM)
This will NEVER EVER EVER be someone from Charlottesville

Well, that's simply ignorant.  Why the hell does it matter if the candidate is from Albremarle, Bedford, or Danville?

If the candidate is smart, politically savvy, and able to raise and/or fund a race, that is simply self-defeatist and stupid.

The mentality of division must be overcome before anyone can win the district, obviously.



You don't (martha - 2/13/2008 8:35:51 PM)
get down to the Bedford,Campbell Co. Martinsville area much do you Doug?
There is a lot of difference, sorry to say. Goode sends birthday cards to constituents. He knows them. He talks like them ( God help him).He is LIKE his constituents down here and THEY LIKE HIM AND VOTE FOR HIM!

I think Mr. Periello has a slight chance but it sure would help if he chewed tobacco and drawled ( sort of kidding).



What the hell? (Jack Landers - 2/13/2008 1:53:47 PM)
What exactly is this guy's beef with the Charlottesville Democratic Party? What exactly is it that they are supposed to have done?

I'm a former Vice-Chair of the Charlottesville party, I've participated in some 5th District politics and I can tell you that the Charlottesville party did not scheme up the idea of running Perriello and shoving him down the rest of the district's throats as a nominee. In fact, until he decided to run I had never even heard of the guy. He was not a fixture of Charlottesville city or party politics.

We are all very keenly aware of the need for candidates in the 5th who can represent Southside. I have heard all kinds of bitching from Southside Dems about the nominees these last 6 years or so. Al Weed (who is actually from Nelson County) and Meredith Richards were both characterized as having been somehow forced on the rest of the district. I agree that we would all be better off with a candidate from elsewhere in the district and most other active Charlottesville Dems realize this as well.

Ok, fine Mr. Cook. Where is your candidate? Instead of complaining about the fact that the Charlottesville party has it's act together, how about actually fielding your own quality candidate whom we can get behind?  I haven't seen anyone from outside of the Charlottesville/Albemarle political sphere even dip a toe in the water since that guy Shropshire ran in 2002. And based on his poor speech at the 2002 district convention and his total lack of a campaign presence there, he was pretty lousy material for a Congressional race without any previous experience in politics.

I agree that a candidate from Charlottesville is doomed against Virgil Goode in the general election. I just don't see how this is Charlottesville/Albemarle's fault that other areas of the district haven't got their shit together to recruit a credible candidate.



Good show (Teddy - 2/13/2008 2:21:05 PM)
I know little about Cville and CD5's internal politics, but the pattern coming through in this dialogue is not unfamiliar, and I commend Jack's biting clarification.  Part of the problem is, to me, the bastard gerrymandering of Virginia as accomplished by a viciously partisan Republican party, and it cannot be solved until we redesign Congressional Districts such that they have a community of interest, rather than trying to ensure that Republicans can control the outcomes of elections and thus insulate their favorite politicians.

Meanwhile, the Southside Democrats, who seem to regard themselves as eternal victims, should stop whining and get behind the election of a Democrat instead of this senseless infighting. If it's any consolation, the 5th CD is not alone in this phenomenum.  



Ditto to what Teddy says (elevandoski - 2/13/2008 2:52:11 PM)
Thanks so much for this post.  Absolutely, the dialogue here is not unfamiliar to many a local Dem committee all over Virginia.  

In 2008, we are blessed with a remarkable crop of Democratic congressional challengers, including Glenn Nye from my own 2nd district.  Let's pull it together and get these guys elected!



Thanks for the back story (jsalt - 2/13/2008 2:29:43 PM)
Thanks for the up beat and positive post.  I was grateful to get a better sense of the subtext and back story regarding the recent posts.  Too often politics breaks down in to turf and ego (on all sides), rather than looking at what's best for everyone.

A theme that has been implicit in the recent conversation is a form of pre-judging and arrogance; that because you are not from a certain place, you somehow can not effectively relate or represent the people who live there.   Not only is this thinking problematic, it is also inaccurate.  Look at Tim Kaine, Barack Obama and arguably even Bill Clinton.  We need to nip this "come-here" bias in the bud.

Running for office is about building relationships, listening and understanding where people are coming from.  Don't judge Tom's ability to do this simply because he was born in Albemarle County.



How it is in the 5th (Jack Landers - 2/13/2008 3:17:39 PM)
Jsalt,

Tim Kaine was not running against a well-entrenched local incumbent. I have no idea what Barack Obama or Bill Clinton could have to do with the question of who the 5th District will vote for in a general election.

I'm not defending the practice of only supporting a candidate who is physically from your own area. I don't like it all that much either. But it is a fact that this attitude exists.

Look, I was active in both Meredith Richards' 2002 race and Al Weed's run in 2004. I was a driver and personal assistant for Meredith on quite a number of occasions and we had all sorts of adventures driving all around Southside and other areas of the district, going to church meetings and firehouse barbeques and generally campaigning (she was really a very good retail candidate and it's a shame she's out of politics now).  So in the course of doing this, I got to talk to bajillions of Democrats, independents and Republicans all over the 5th.  Believe me when I say that the loyalty to Goode is real.  Even when we were in the friendliest of venues, there was always a slight attitude of 'well, you're from Charlottesville.'

I'm actually not complaining about our reception.  Since those experiences in barnstorming Southside, I've got a family of my own now and often have trouble making ends meet and I know EXACTLY how most of those people feel.  They look at Charlottesville and see a bunch of wealthy, latte-sipping  urban snobs who have no idea what it is like to try to make ends meet in rural Virginia.  What do a bunch of latte-sippers know about running out of heating oil in December and having to hit the pawn shops to get money for Christmas presents? Most of the people from Charlottesville whom they encounter never have to worry about things like that. And they kind of resent the fact.

Virgil, well, he's one of their own. He came up in Southside. He knows what things are like. And when they have a problem with their Social Security check or some government bureaucrat puts them on hold all day, they can call up Virgil Goode and he straightens it out for them every damn time. Best Constituent services going, bar none. They don't know how he votes and they don't care. When government is making trouble for them, Virgil steps in and goes to bat for them.

That's how it is. This isn't like the suburbs where you can talk about 'building relationships, listening and understanding where people are coming from' and have it mean something. They would think that's a bunch of touchy-feeling crap.  This is a district which requires a very different approach. You don't build relationships by holding town hall meetings or be going door to door in that part of the district. You build relationships by personally bringing a turkey to every pastor's doorstep on Christmas Eve for the last 10 years. Which is exactly the kind of thing Virgil has been doing all of his career.  



Does Perriello . . . (JPTERP - 2/13/2008 2:57:58 PM)
have offices throughout the 5th, or just in and around Charlottesville?

I think part of this is a two way street.  People won't go out of their way to listen to a candidate who they know nothing about, but if the person is in the neighborhood -- or if the person has talked to friends and neighbors in the area and listened to their concerns -- then maybe.

Another side here -- the Democrats are likely to control both houses of Congress and maybe even the presidency.  Seniority counts, but in terms of committee assignments, and getting legislation through the congress, it helps to be a member of the majority party.  Even if voters like Goode, he's going to have a harder time than most in getting his legislation through congress the next few sessions.



They don't care. (Jack Landers - 2/13/2008 3:20:25 PM)
Those voters do not care in the slightest how Virgil Goode votes or what bills he gets passed. He wins because of his personal relationships and his extremely good constituent services.


Yes, he does (jessicabarba - 2/13/2008 3:33:25 PM)
I work on Tom's campaign. While I will let you all hash out the debate on this thread, I wanted to respond to this one question. We have opened one office in Rocky Mount and will have our main office opening up in Danville by the end of the quarter.


Virgil didn't get anything passed when the R's were in charge either. (UVAHoo - 2/13/2008 5:33:02 PM)
I think he's gotten 1 bill passed in his whole tenure.  He brings home the earmarks so no one cares.


Didn't he get some . . . (JPTERP - 2/13/2008 5:53:33 PM)
funding for the Martinsville-MZM plant through congress, or was this solely based on local/state funding?


It was an earmark. (UVAHoo - 2/13/2008 5:59:49 PM)
Virgil got a choice seat on the Appropriations Committee when he switched parties 11 years ago.  The position allows him to insert a whole lot of earmarks to the budget.  He also sits on a defense approps sub-committee which is where the MZM money came from.  But its a different process than actually passing a bill you authored and sponsored.  He sucks at that part of his job.  Or, maybe he just sucks at writing laws that non-crazy people would vote for.


You mean the MZM money that never came through and ended up (jsalt - 2/13/2008 7:09:32 PM)
costing the City of Martinsville $143,000 because Virgil weighed in on behalf of the Defense contractor and waived their liability for the cost of the capital investment that the State was putting into the project?  Virgil Goode, bringing it home for the district.

http://www.martinsvillebulleti...



Hear hear! (CrellMoset - 2/13/2008 3:21:31 PM)
I'm not from Southside, but if I were, I would likely be offended by any insinuation that in order to get elected Southside, you have to be from Southside.  I don't dispute that identity politics play a role in voting behavior, but by and large this role is a proxy for issues.  When ^insert ethnicity/locality/gender^ voters vote for ^insert same ethnicity/locality/gender^, they don't do so simply because they are of the same ethnicity or gender - they do so because these candidates connect with them, because they care about the issues that candidate cares about.  Tom is talking about issues that resonate with the voters in Southside - he's talking about jobs and job security and the economy, he's talking about health care and education, and he's talking about national security and energy independence.  Sure, sometimes identity serves as a proxy for issues, but Tom doesn't need that to be a Southsider to connect with them - he has the ability to connect with voters, anywhere, regardless, and they're intelligent enough to recognize that.


Huh (Jack Landers - 2/13/2008 3:32:31 PM)
And that's why Connie Brennan defeated Watkins Abbit for Delegate last year.

Oh, wait..

If you have a well-polished, intelligent, affable candidate who is well-versed on the issues running against the local good ol' boy, the local good ol' boy will win 9 times out of 10. That doesn't mean that you can't unseat the guy. Just that you've got to find your own good ol' boy to do it.



Jack! Tom is the Nominee (The Grey Havens - 2/13/2008 3:43:28 PM)
While you have done a good job schooling all these NoVA Dems, you're not doing anyone any favors by running down the guy who's going to be carrying the standard for the Party in the 5th.

If you already know that Tom's going to lose, then at least use the candidacy to raise support, recruit for the local committees, invigorate the southside Dems, undercut Virgil, and lay the groundwork for when the city manager of Martinsville (or whatever Good 'ol boy you happen to like) decides to run against Virgil.

basically, I'm saying, quitcher bitchin and git er done!



Good point, (Jack Landers - 2/13/2008 5:18:56 PM)
But this forum is mostly a bunch of insiders and activists talking shop, right? I wouldn't say most of this stuff into a microphone at a party convention. There's a place for honest analysis I would think that this is one of those places.

I think Tom is going to do a great job as a candidate and I have nothing bad to say about him personally. It's just when it's time to give a race a cold dose of serious analysis, I don't believe in pulling any punches. To have a real shot at winning the 5th, we have to be honest about what the challenges are in order to adjust our behavior towards a victory.  This is the honesty.  



"insiders and activists talking shop" (Lowell - 2/13/2008 7:25:28 PM)
I think it's a bit more than "insiders and activists," given that we're getting 6.000 visits per day right now.


I've heard plenty of Southsiders, (UVAHoo - 2/13/2008 5:37:27 PM)
including local party leaders, say that there ain't no way a Charlottesville liberal is gonna beat Virgil Goode.  Of course, some of them use that as justification to not support the Charlottesville liberal so its sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy.


Look, Jack is right in many respects (aznew - 2/13/2008 5:14:32 PM)
Virgil Goode is from Southside. His father was in politics there, too, I believe. And there is a split between C'ville/Albemarle and the rest of the District.

The place where I part company from Jack in my post above is that I think these dynamics can be overcome given the circumstances that might be in effect this election cycle.

Yes, in Southside the first instinct will be to see Tom as a rich kid from Albemarle who went to the Ivy League. But I still think he can win them over.

Richards and Weed never had a chance, because they were never able to make the first part of the argument -- that it was time for Goode to go. So the folks down there (who are quite hospitable) weren't open to really voting for someone else.

My last point is this. If you believe that 2008 will be a transformative election with Obama at the top of the ticket, well, plenty of entrenched incumbents lose their seats in such elections.



let me offer a few points (teacherken - 2/13/2008 6:08:11 PM)
people said Hillary Clinton could never win upstate NY

and people says Virgil knows all the people and all the local important issues.

But Hillary won because she took the time to go and listen, to hear what the people had to say, to learn who the key people were.

There is sufficient time for Tom to be doing that, although he should start ASAP.  Start with those who are elected Democrats and get to know them and their issues.   Schedule public forums and find out what interests people

Get lists of who voted in the Dem primary and invite them - heck, Danville went heavily for Obama, and that might provide something of a window.

I don't think one has to be a good ol' boy.   Virginia has elected as US Senators people who grew up in Penna (Paul Trible), as US Congressmen people from Boston (Jim Moran) or even people who went to Harvard (Bobby Scott).

Tom came back to live in what is the 5th CD.   That is a starting point.   And he already is establishing offices around the district.  That is also important.

Raise money.  Identify possible prospects to help with money, volunteers, hosting and the like.

It is doable, and with the possibility of a massive Democratic turnout - remember, Mark Warner will also be on the ballot and can serve as a validator for Tom - the seat is doable.



I've grown up with Goode... (MikeSizemore - 2/13/2008 6:35:51 PM)
...when he was good, and then when he became the Goode everyone else knows him for. I'm ready to see him go.

However, I'm also realistic, and I see a lot of application of formulas from other CDs and elections that just don't plug into the 5th in Goode's case. I'm not saying this isn't doable, I'm just saying some of yall don't really seem to get it. You can't compare Hillary's win in NY or Brian Moran's win in NoVa (I'd argue that his district isn't too far removed culturally from Boston). I guess you really just have to see Goode's footprint within the community first hand.

The first step is realizing what we're up against here. Thats all I'm saying, so let the rotten veggies fly.



Agreed . . . (JPTERP - 2/13/2008 7:03:55 PM)
regarding NoVA.  People tend to vote with people that they identify with -- that's one constant wherever a person goes.  

NoVA isn't quite Boston, but it is true that most people who live in the region come from somewhere else.  It's unusual to find families with roots in the area that go back more than one or two generations.  So the idea of voting for someone who comes from outside of the community isn't an insurmountable challenge.  

If the person's roots go back a decade or two (or even less) that's pretty much normal here.  

I'm curious to see how things go for Perriello.  Sounds like he's got a solid resume and a good strategy, and some ties to the district.  It looks like he also should be able to pull the money together.  He definitely has his work cut out for him, but it's good to hear that he's making a serious run.  



Amen (Waldo Jaquith - 2/13/2008 8:56:15 PM)
However, I'm also realistic, and I see a lot of application of formulas from other CDs and elections that just don't plug into the 5th in Goode's case. I'm not saying this isn't doable, I'm just saying some of yall don't really seem to get it.

Thank you for that, Mike. It's really frustrating to see people making statements about how to win the 5th that are 180° the opposite of the reality on the ground.



Waldo, are you saying Perriello simply doesn't stand a chance (aznew - 2/13/2008 10:33:40 PM)
because he's from Albemarle County?

Or are you saying that Goode is simply unbeatable, no matter who runs against him.

Are you saying the folks in Southside don't want better representation in Washington, DC?



Wha? (Waldo Jaquith - 2/14/2008 12:45:46 AM)
Why not ask if I hate puppies?

I neither said nor implied any of those things.



*sigh* (MikeSizemore - 2/14/2008 10:37:45 AM)
n/m


I'm sorry you guys took it that way (aznew - 2/14/2008 11:19:52 AM)
because I didn't mean it that way.

I am trying to understand exactly what is being said on this thread. So far, I have seen argued here that Goode cannot be defeated by:

1. Questioning his record in any way (Jack Landers):

They aren't going to vote against Virgil Goode. If you start there then you're doomed. They like Virgil and don't really care how he votes.

I mean, if that's case, then everyone is wasting their time and money on Tom, aren't they?

2. Don't even bother arguing that the District will get better representations in Washington DC because Goode's strength lies in his lifelong connection with the community in Southside (Jack Landers).

Virgil, well, he's one of their own. He came up in Southside. He knows what things are like. And when they have a problem with their Social Security check or some government bureaucrat puts them on hold all day, they can call up Virgil Goode and he straightens it out for them every damn time. Best Constituent services going, bar none. They don't know how he votes and they don't care. When government is making trouble for them, Virgil steps in and goes to bat for them.

We can all stipulate that constituent services is a significant part of what a Congressman does for his District. And I take Jack on his word that Goode does a good job on this (I have never sought his help, personally). But again, if this is all the folks from this district want or need, then lets put our time and attention someplace else. I think many folks care more, but of course, I live in C'Ville, so I don't really get it (see #4, below).

2. A candidate from the Charlottesville/Albemarle area of the CD, because such a candidate, no matter how wonderful, won't be able to connect with the community in Southside (Ridge Cook) except through a 10-year process of building personal relationships (Jack Landers);

he only way to beat Goode is to field a candidate whom they feel that they are voting FOR, rather than just against Goode. This will NEVER EVER EVER be someone from Charlottesville, so long as the district is drawn with it's current boundaries.

Again, this raises the question of why spend an ounce of energy or a single dime trying to get Tom elected, since it can "NEVER EVER EVER" happen.

3. Anyone who does not accept these two propositions as gospel truth "don't really seem to get it." (MikeSizemore, Waldo Janquith)"

So, I'm trying to understand the problem. I have now heard all the reasons why Tom Perriello can't win. So, who, or more accurately, what are the characteristics necessary for someone who can?

P.S. Waldo is out, obviously, since he hates puppies.



aznew (MikeSizemore - 2/14/2008 12:08:35 PM)
No apologies necessary, this is a friendly discussion. Do you have an email I can reach you at?


Retail politics big time (Teddy - 2/13/2008 6:50:33 PM)
is what teacherken proposes, and it works. Listen to him, and get one's Democratic hindquarters off to the church supper cornbread, beaten biscuits, peanut roasts and barbecues, or whatever. Southside not only feels forgot, it IS forgot, and it is, moreover, desperate for jobs (hence the MZM misstep).

If what they've been doing with Virgil all these many years has not worked, maybe it's time to change.  Try something different, y'know.



retail politics is the idea (teacherken - 2/13/2008 7:26:55 PM)
and going and listening to people on their turf and the differences seem less.  That is what I mean.

And I think we are ready to accept people who have come from elsewhere - perhaps born in KS (Kaine) or Indiana (Warner) if they have committed to Virginia

Tom P grew up in what is now the 5th CD, even if it was in C'Ville.   That overcomes some of the problems that might otherwise exist.  At least, I think so.

Go and get to know the people, tell them why you want to represent them, and connect that with their concerns.



One more little thing (Teddy - 2/13/2008 7:46:57 PM)
I suggest not driving up in one's Beamer. Our good ol' boy George Allen had himself a special broken down pickup truck as I recall, and he'd stop outside of town, transfer his sainted behind from his Mercedes into the pickup, put on his cowboy hat, stuff his mouth with terbaccy and mosey into town in the truck, thus presenting himself as a common man, a regular guy you could have a beer with. Worked, didn't it? Well, most of the time.


and did you get a chance (Alter of Freedom - 2/14/2008 10:37:30 AM)
I do not have a dog in this hunt whatsoever, but has anyone taken the time to see the support in the Primary that Huckabee got in the areas you are referencing? Those areas went huge for Huckabee which may certainly point to just what it is any candidate is up against. Not saying that a Dem cannot challange but given whats going on on the ground there at a time when the rest of the RPV seems to be floundering that does not help for any Dem challenger.


Primary results for 5th CD (jessicabarba - 2/14/2008 1:47:06 PM)
Obama: 49,027 (64.97% of Dems)
Huckabee: 22,332 (37.82% of Repubs)


Whoops I meant (jessicabarba - 2/14/2008 1:51:02 PM)
Huckabee: 22,036 (51.78% of Repub vote)


What's really happening Southside ... (lumpkincharm - 2/13/2008 9:45:16 PM)
Hi everyone, I am a field director for Tom, based in Henry County. My father is a Baptist minister and we live outside of Martinsville. Just this past week, Tom and I went around for three days for listening meetings through nine counties. During these meetings we listened/talked to students, elected officials, Democratic leaders, local business leaders, faith leaders, community leaders, unions, NAACP leaders, etc. etc.

What's most amazing about going to all these places is to see him connecting with people over morals and values. One of the reasons why I wanted to work for him is that he is a person of deep faith and not afraid to talk about it.

I understand where many of people's concerns are coming from. But as someone who has been living here and watching the reaction Tom gets, I can tell you people Southside are responding. I fear that some of these comments sell the folks short. We're winning people over in Southside not because Tom drives a truck, but because he connects with people's values. This matters to them, and they want to make an informed decision about who's representing them.

I think that worrying about the Charlottesville/Southside divide is a distraction. We know we still have a ways to go. But Tom is our candidate, and let's worry about getting him elected!

Peace,
Drew



sounds like the right approach to me (teacherken - 2/13/2008 10:43:35 PM)
and as I know from the conversation I had with Tom at Creigh's event after JJ, he listens, asks pertinent questions, and knows how to followup - I got a thank you email today.


Keep up the great work, Drew. (Lowell - 2/14/2008 7:06:16 AM)
And don't let all the naysayers get you down!


missing the point (MikeSizemore - 2/14/2008 10:40:54 AM)
Naysayers and objective observers are two completely different things.

For the record, I've spoken briefly (more lengthy discussions in the future) with the two staffers who have posted on this thread, and I'll vouch that everyone watching should be happy to know that Tom's got two very motivated and capable folks aiming to get it done for him.



Thanks, Mike (jessicabarba - 2/14/2008 1:57:58 PM)
And actually, we have six motivated and capable folks staffing the campaign right now. Plus 1200 volunteer hours logged so far.  


I was speaking to a former co-chair of the Democratic Party (aznew - 2/14/2008 2:03:32 PM)
here in C'ville the other day.

He spoke of the Pirriello volunteer organization in glowing terms as going "24 hours a day."



And that's how Tom's going to make this (Lowell - 2/14/2008 2:07:39 PM)
competitive or even win -- by hard work, more hard work, and even more hard work.  Oh yeah, and a healthy dose of inspiration to top off the perspiration!


Get Behind Tom (ayoungprogressive - 2/13/2008 10:29:51 PM)
The way which people have been commenting on this post shows a total disregard to Tom's achievements and only serves to further Virgil's attempts to frame Tom as an outsider. Tom has out raised Virgil 3 to 1 in the fourth quarter and, even though you can't see many of the smaller donations because they are through act blue, Tom has many donors throughout the district and in south side. Tom is the man to take the fifth district back because understands that south side must be part of any winning strategy and in this light has been working hard to build relationships on the ground.  Tom Perriello is the type of leader Virginians deserve and a leader we can all be proud of.  


Let's think about the 5th CD like this... (chspkheel - 2/14/2008 1:51:36 AM)
If you recall, the NRC was fanatically targeting Rick Boucher because the Fighting 9th went heavy Republican statewide and during Presidential elections for a while and they couldn't figure out why they could't get ol' Rick out of there.  So they had a few candidates relocate there, like Katzen (R Lt. Gov Cand.) in 2002 and Triplett (NASCAR Exec) in 2004, and they both lost bad.  Republicans saw a glimer of hope when Boucher only got 59% of the vote in 2004.  Oh, also in 2000 and 2004 the 9th CD went for Bush both times by better than 11%, as well as in the 5th.  Also, in 2000 Allen won over Robb in both the 9th and the 5th CD, big.  Then comes 2006 and the NRCC says, maybe if we got someone local, that we didn't have to move into the district, we might have a better chance.  The get Republican Delegate "Wild" Bill Carrico from Grayson County to run against Boucher.  Boucher butcherd Carrico, and also Allen won in the 9th and the 5th CDs.  Is it coming into focus a little better?  

If not, then listen up.  Congressman Rick Boucher is a Democrat winning in a Republican district.  Virgil Goode is a Republican winning in a swing district, by huge margins (2000, 2002, 2004, 2006).  Both of these CDs have huge constituencies of people 45 to 50 yrs and over.  The education level of most of the people in the district is at least a High School degree and vocational education, with maybe 15 to 20% with either an Associates or Undergraduate degree.  Most of the people in the district have to rely on Pell Grants or Stafford and Plus loans to send their kids to college.  

It comes down to this,...  You get the government you deserve and the citizens of the 9th and 5th CDs feel like Boucher and Goode are one of them.  They know them, and have for a long, long time.  Also, there is a resentment to people that come from up north that try and come down to where they live and tell them how dumb and backwards they are and that they know what is best for these simpletons in rural Virginia.  This has been the feeling since way before Virgil or Virgil's daddy were even born. So, you folks up in the Republic of Charlottesville, don't flatter yourselves.  If anything, Tom should have started getting out in the district far earlier than the end of the 3rd Quarter, and not doing fundraisers in NOVA and DC in the 4th Quarter.  Not saying that he shouldn't have been raising money, but having the DCCC tell you what you need to do to win the 5th and that they are looking at this race closely or "targeting" the 5th, is a recipe for disaster.  (BTW, the 5th didn't even make the top 40 targeted races for the DCCC)  

This is the culture in rural Virginia that any candidate challenging the incumbent has to get through.  Allen had the Macaca moment, and it didn't hurt him one bit in the 9th or the 5th.  Same goes for Virgil and his biggoted statements about Muslims and Mexicans.  The difference is that Allen had to run statewide and places like Charlottesville with Country Club Republicans in the 5th hurt him in the longrun.  Virgil lost Charlottesville a long time ago, so he's not worried about the vote up there.  

The 9th and the 5th are almost mirror images (figuratively speaking), and have a lot in common with who they elect to public office.  The folks in the 5th don't care about Tom's accompishments overseas.  They think that the Federal Government spends way to much money on Foreign Aid that could be better spent here in the U.S. or the 5th CD for that matter.  Those are the facts, so good luck!  



nail on the head (martha - 2/14/2008 6:43:48 AM)
You pretty much said it all.Re-districting may be the only way! Virgil will still be around but maybe we can pick off a Republican somewhere else.


so we re-district (Alter of Freedom - 2/14/2008 10:42:10 AM)
Am I getting this right, you try and try and cannot unseat an incumbant at the polls so you try the end around and redraw the district lines in an attempt to win the seat...have we not learned anything? Is this the kind of ends justify the means brand of politics we want in Virginia. Sounds very Clintonian to me and I though most of us here did not want that kind of direction for Virginia.


The government you deserve (Sui Juris - 2/14/2008 10:55:44 AM)

It comes down to this,...  You get the government you deserve and the citizens of the 9th and 5th CDs feel like Boucher and Goode are one of them.

The problem with this line, of course, is that I'm also getting the government that the people of the 5th CD deserve, and I live in the 8th CD.


One constant throughout the state . . . (JPTERP - 2/14/2008 8:40:07 PM)
Most of the people in the district have to rely on Pell Grants or Stafford and Plus loans to send their kids to college.

I live in Moran's district, which is considered upper income.  I knew some people who were fortunate to have family working at local colleges where they'd get discounts on tuition, but these were exceptional cases.  Almost everyone that I know who went to college relied in part, or more often wholly, on programs like the Stafford loan program, or ROTC scholarships.  The days of $300 a year tuition are gone never to return again.



Ha. (MikeSizemore - 2/14/2008 8:56:45 PM)
The days of $300 textbooks per semester seem to be gone as well!


Tom Must Master Immigration on the Stump (The Grey Havens - 2/14/2008 10:56:24 AM)
The critical issue for southside this cycle is going to be immigration, because Virgil doesn't have anything else to run on.

Virgil has put himself forward as one of the nation's leading bigots, and potentially one of the nation's most powerful racist voices.  

This year, Tom will likely be running downticket from both Barack Obama and Mark Warner.  He needs a message that clearly differentiates himself from Virgil's jingoism, attaches himself to Warner's the strong rural message while reaching for the higher natures and anti-NAFTA message of Obama.

I would suggest the strategy advised by Democracy Corps, is perfect for the Tom this cycle:

Let's get specific. Here's what the Dems can say:

We believe the border must be secured, immigrants must follow the rules and obey the law and people who come to this country to live must be willing to accept our values and assimilate into our way of life.

But there are two places where Democrats break with the Republicans:

First, we will not support proposals that will separate children from their parents. This is just plain immoral. A fair immigration system must not only control the borders, it must be enforced in a way that is fair, humane and in accord with American values and the American way.

Second, we're going to put the blame for the problem where it belongs. The people coming here to work didn't want to leave their homes, their parents and relatives and the communities where they grew up. They are economic refugees from an economic Hurricane Katrina unleashed in Mexico and other Latin countries by the extremist free market polices that have been championed by the Republicans ever since the 1980's.

The same Republican economists who don't want all Americans to have health insurance and won't protect American workers from outsourcing, downsizing and unfair trade are also the ones who helped make a mess of Mexico's economy in the 80s and 90s and left these people with no alternative except to leave their homes to seek a better life. We have to fix the immigration mess, but the right place to start is by recognizing who made the mess in the first place.



Democracy Corps has perfect pitch (Teddy - 2/14/2008 11:22:50 AM)
on immigration, and, although I've been saying this for many months, they have said it better than I ever did... and, it resonates because it is (gasp) true. Now, please figure out how to pare it down and make it shorter without losing its punch.  


How's this? (The Grey Havens - 2/15/2008 10:33:07 AM)
America must face the urgent need to address the emergency of illegal immigration.  While we agree with Virgil that we need to secure our borders, there is no place in American politics for Virgil Goode's scapegoating.  It is outside the realm of American moral values to separate 3.1 Million children from their parents.  Besides, this is just Virgil trying to change the subject.

The threat of draconian measures that don't address the problem is a smokescreen of bigotry.

These people never wanted to come to America, but the disastrous trade policies, like NAFTA...

And virgil for all of his posturing has been ineffective in dealing with the single most disastrous national national policy.  He has demagogued about massive highway systems and imaginary plans to allow the US to be annexed by Canada and Mexico, but he's done nothing, and as long as he's there to shor up the weak-dollar, weak-labor, Free-trade forces among congressional Republicans, nothing actually will get done.



fine, except (Sui Juris - 2/15/2008 10:39:09 AM)
there is no great immigration emergency.  The only "emergency" was the GOP's need to find a replacement for gay people as the next drum to beat.  But if you overlook that, it looks good.  Might drop the weak-dollar bit, though.



I'm no expert in crafting a political message (aznew - 2/15/2008 10:50:49 AM)
but if I can just put my 2 cents in:

The question really is what can be done now to help the people of the 5th? Certainly, stopping illegal immigration at the border is one part. But doing that won't bring back the lost jobs.

The 5th needs to think about the future. But it can't do it alone. It needs the help of the federal government for training, for programs to spur economic development and for temporary help until the district gets back on its own two feet.

The federal government ought to provide this not as a matter of charity, but as a matter of responsibility. And as a matter of everyone understanding that we are in this together. An economically vibrant 5th district helps every American.

This help will never come with Virgil Goode as your Congressman. Virgil Goode is a fine man and has served his district well, but the fact is that he has burned to many bridges in Washington. Turned too many people off. Rightly or wrongly, the problem is not that Virgil Goode's fellow legislators don't want to help you -- they do -- but they don't want to help him.

If you have to go to the hospital for an operation, what do you care more about. Whether the surgeon has had the same ailment as you, or whether the surgeon has the skills to operate on you successfully.

If you get in trouble with the law and hire a lawyer, who do you want to hire? A lawyer that's been charged with the same crime as you, or one who is successful at arguing in front of juries?

And in these critical days of economic distress, with no help in sight, who do you want to send to Washington? Someone who will just insult and alienate his fellow legislators with bigoted comments, or someone who will be able to work with his fellow Congressmen and Women to get you the help that you need and to which you are entitled.

Anyway, I got a little carried away, and I don't know how to word it well, and it needs to be tied into shared values and all, but that's the argument that I see.    



Change could be coming to the 10th as well (Lowell - 2/14/2008 3:09:57 PM)
See here for more about how Judy Feder is the 9th best funded House challenger in the country.  Go Judy!


and the 7th?? (Alter of Freedom - 2/14/2008 3:46:45 PM)
any help coming our way in the 7th I wonder?


I've written about this fairly extensively. (Lowell - 2/14/2008 3:54:41 PM)
See here, and here, for instance.  Anita Hartke is very impressive, and there apparently are other Democratic candidates as well to take on the grinning idiot Eric Cantor.