OBAMA WINS VIRGINIA! (and D.C.)

By: Rob
Published On: 2/12/2008 8:01:23 PM

Open thread for the results....

That was fast!  MSNBC CALLS IT FOR OBAMA PROJECTED WINNER IN VIRGINIA BY "SUBSTANTIAL VICTORY!"

Also, as of polls closing, GOP race is too close to call.

UPDATE at 7:07:  Results available here.  I'll keep you updated a bit, though the outcome is not in doubt given the quick call.

UPDATE at 7:08:  Exit polls show Obama won the African American vote by 90-10%, and split the White vote almost 50-50 (won White men by 55%).  Also, big numbers for him with youth vote and independents.  NBC says NOVA was a good area for Obama.

UPDATE at 7:30:  Obama won voters making under $50,000.  That's a huge development for him.

UPDATE at 7:45:  Maryland polls have been extended by an hour and a half -- now closing at 9:30 p.m.  In Virginia, with 29% reporting, Obama is leading 63% to 36%.

UPDATE at 8:00:  Obama win D.C., called when the polls closed.  No surprise -- another big victory.

UPDATE at 8:32:  In Virginia, with 68% reporting, Obama is leading 63% to 35%.  CNN is projecting that McCain will win in Virginia too.

UPDATE at 8:36:  In analyzing the exits, Matt Yglesias sums it up well.  "Basically, everyone voted for Obama."

UPDATE at 8:54:  Pat Buchanan says that Obama is showing that he would put Virginia in play in November.  

UPDATE at 9:21:  In Virginia, with 83% reporting, Obama is leading 64% to 35%.  


Comments



Now, perhaps, we can get back to (Sui Juris - 2/12/2008 8:02:39 PM)
acting like decent Democrats and tamp down the primary douchebaggery that's been so popular, of late.



cue the excuses (Chris Guy - 2/12/2008 8:03:02 PM)
in 3...2...1...


excuses... (varealist - 2/12/2008 8:05:31 PM)
yes, indeed, from Ben Tribbet leading the way....


Exit Polling... (NGB - 2/12/2008 8:03:26 PM)
Has Obama at 61%, which would be a good delegate win for him.


ABC News - Charles Gibson (Catzmaw - 2/12/2008 8:05:39 PM)
Just called it for Obama, too.

They did it based on exit polls, literally announcing it as soon as the hour hit.  Over on Channel 4 Mr. Potatohead, oops, Tim Russert, is trotting out some huge numbers for Obama.

Russert also predicts a win for Huckabee in Virginia (huh?).  Sounds like all the McCainians stayed home out of the icy rain or crossed over to vote in the Democratic primary.  Must have mostly gone for Obama.  



Prediction: Obama 65%, Clinton 37% (Rob - 2/12/2008 8:07:33 PM)


Also - Go Huckabee! (Sui Juris - 2/12/2008 8:05:59 PM)


Yes we can! (Will Write For Food - 2/12/2008 8:14:05 PM)
Woohoo! Barack the vote ;)


Get Ready for a Massive Blowout!!! (The Grey Havens - 2/12/2008 8:19:38 PM)
This is going to be the game changer, folks!

When Obama is sworn in, people will look back on this night, and remember that this was the night Obama took the lead and never looked back.



thanks! (chiefsjen - 2/12/2008 9:01:01 PM)
i'm glad you like my new sticker so much -- i hope you will spread the word!


Every time I comment... (The Grey Havens - 2/12/2008 10:05:10 PM)
I just love this thing.

I'm planning on displaying mine proudly all year long.  Right next to my "Webb for Senate" and "I miss Bill" bumper stickers.



anyone watching MSNBC? (Jambon - 2/12/2008 8:26:17 PM)
Pat Buchanan was just saying how Northern VA is "really really liberal" and then went on to say that "Arlington and Alexandria are practically marxist".

oh Pat!  the man is too much...  



What? (Ingrid - 2/12/2008 8:29:08 PM)
What happened to "The People's Republic of Arlington"???


to these wingnuts (Chris Guy - 2/12/2008 8:31:41 PM)
anyone to the left of Joe Lieberman is Karl Marx. Priceless.


Well, that was my question (Sui Juris - 2/12/2008 8:33:41 PM)
when I saw that we're all about Obedience to Lawful Authority.


Talk to the County Treasurer about that. n/t (Ingrid - 2/12/2008 9:49:27 PM)


I did talk to O'Leary (Sui Juris - 2/12/2008 9:57:38 PM)
For about 10 minutes.  Came away with zero confidence that he understood the concern.  Talking to the County Board next, I think.  Suggestions for alternative avenues always welcome, see profile for email.


Manly Character? (spotter - 2/13/2008 8:21:51 AM)
So I guess women don't need to display a decal?


Exit polls look very good for Obama (aznew - 2/12/2008 8:39:02 PM)
If the exit polls are accurate, it was clearly a rout. I don't think she needed to win here, but think she needed to keep it close just for the headline effect heading into the next round.

I guess we'll get to see how Obama does with the scrutiny that the front-runner gets.

In the meantime, congrats to the all the folks here who worked hard for Barack Obama's victory.



Two Words: (Jack Landers - 2/12/2008 8:39:37 PM)
Presumptive nominee.

Hillary Clinton has now lost 8 contests in a row - each by a LANDSLIDE. She's finished. Hillary Clinton will not win another state in the 2008 primaries. We have a nominee now and it is Barack Obama.

Go forth into the blogosphere and spread the Good News.



It is funny though... (ericy - 2/12/2008 8:58:34 PM)

There are Hillary supporters spinning some new poll in Ohio that shows her ahead, and how this will be the end of Obama.

In a way though it is good.  We mustn't get complacent and assume we have it locked up.  Until we have the delegates, and she concedes, we have to work like we are 30 points down.



I think that overstates it, Jack (aznew - 2/12/2008 9:08:56 PM)
As I noted in another post, the delegate count remains close, and the remaining states (Texas, Ohio and Penn.), at least for the moment, seem to favor Clinton. If you factor in committed SDs, then Clinton and Obama will end the night basically even in delegates.

Obama clearly has the momentum, but I am just not sure how this translates into his being the presumptive nominee.

I think frontrunner would be the more accurate designation.



Texas (tx2vadem - 2/12/2008 10:10:56 PM)
Texas will be quite the mystery.  As has been pointed out at least in the media, Valley turn out has been historically low which means their delegate assignment is equivalently low even if turn out this time is high.  There is a very large black population in East Texas and in the major cities.  Not to mention that most of the population loss from Louisiana post Katrina came to Houston and Texas generally.  On top of that, you have highly educated and affluent folks making up the suburbs of Dallas and Houston and they break for Obama.  Austin, the liberal oasis, will all most certainly go for Obama.  And Obama has this momentum going into the state, so who know how that will play out?

Texas has early voting like California, so I don't know how many people have already voted.  But I would say that the state is up for grabs.  And it is doubtful that even if Senator Clinton wins, she will win by a landslide.

I think Senator Obama's draw and ability to bring new people out is a tremendous asset.  I hope that plays out down the ballot and I am sure Super Delegates are thinking about the same thing.  This could tip the balance in many close elections increasing our majorities in both houses and in states across the country.



Maryland extended until 9:30 (DanG - 2/12/2008 8:41:13 PM)
Maryland has been extended until 9:30.


The last thing Senator Clinton needs (relawson - 2/12/2008 9:04:50 PM)
More voters


Senator Clinton has a decision to make (relawson - 2/12/2008 8:50:06 PM)
I think that it is time for her to step aside for who is starting to look like the presumptive nominee.  

The sooner she ends her campaign, the sooner we can start working towards getting a Democrat in the White House.



I know y'all are excited (aznew - 2/12/2008 9:04:59 PM)
but slow down.

I mean, you never know, but I'd be shocked if she quit before March 4.

Among other things, Clintn and Obama are pretty much even in terms of total delegates (including SDs), at this point. At worst, she will be about 100 delegates behind in terms of pledged delegates going into three states that are strong for her and where she can make that up.

Even after tonight, the total votes cast for her and Obama are still roughly even, particularly if you exclude caucuses (the results of which are easily skewed by a variety of factors).

I mean, I understand Obama has the momentum, but it is just the start of the fourth quarter. Why on Earth would Clinton have a decision to make at this point, much less conclude it is time for her to step down?

I'm happy for Obama and his supporters tonight, and Clinton's position is considerably weaker now than it was yesterday, but this thing is far from over.



March 4 is her whole strategy (Chris Guy - 2/12/2008 9:07:58 PM)
of course she's not quiting before then.


Like Giuliani in Florida? (Jack Landers - 2/13/2008 10:50:26 AM)
A 'strategy' for getting your butt kicked for weeks in state after state with the idea of then magically winning in a big state that you wish had been up first is not really a strategy at all. It's just a fun way of describing 'getting backed into a corner.'

Wesley Clark tried this in 2004 as well and it just does not work. No matter how well you poll at first in whatever Magical Pony state you are depending on to catapult you into first place, by the time you actually get there you're going to look like such a loser (because you will have, you know, been losing) that the lead will evaporate.

The Magical Pony strategy does not work. There are no magical ponies.



It is a bad strategy (aznew - 2/13/2008 11:09:33 AM)
A lesson for early front-runners. Don't take anything for granted.

Though I think it is unfair to compare Clinton and Giuliani. Clinton has real support. Giuliani never did. He had name recognition - nothing else.



She needs to do the right thing (relawson - 2/12/2008 9:09:34 PM)
Sure, she can drag this into March.  It's only going to get tougher going forward.  And another month of gnashing at Obama is going to hurt his chances in November.


What are you talking about? (aznew - 2/12/2008 9:15:46 PM)
Half of the people who have voted in these primaries and caucuses have voted for her -- millions of Democrats.

She won the primaries in the two biggest states to vote so far.

How on Earth is her dropping out "the right thing?"



Remember this website is not a hotbed for objectivity (thegools - 2/12/2008 9:18:40 PM)
when it comes to the Obama and Hillary contest.


Yes, I know. (aznew - 2/12/2008 9:23:39 PM)
Thanks for the reminder.

And I am sincerely happy for Obama and his supporters. It's a big night for him.



I just want to take this opportunity to say (Lowell - 2/12/2008 9:26:29 PM)
that you're a class act.  Although you didn't agree with me on which Democrat I preferred to be the party's nominee for President, you were never disagreeable.  Thanks, you are a model for all of us -- Obama and Clinton supporters -- to follow!


I'll second that. (j_wyatt - 2/12/2008 9:28:51 PM)
But don't give up, aznew.  Without you, it's preaching to the choir and not near as much fun.


Thanks (aznew - 2/12/2008 9:30:19 PM)
I really appreciate that, especially being new here.

I just want to see us win in the Fall and in 2009 here in Va.



Me too. (Rob - 2/12/2008 9:34:04 PM)
I can't wait to be on aznew's side again when the primary is over, whoever wins.


Who said I was objective? I'm pragmatic. (relawson - 2/12/2008 9:28:23 PM)
"19. In war, then, let your great object be victory,
   not lengthy campaigns."

I want to win the war against extremists in our own government.  It does us no good to prolong the inevitable.  If you want to win, it makes sense to send your best soldier.

Clinton will lose in the general election against McCain.  Let's not choose to lose six months prior to the general election.



Which states going forward do you project Clinton will win? (relawson - 2/12/2008 9:22:39 PM)
I majored in science, not miracles.


Well, she is polling ahead (aznew - 2/12/2008 9:25:30 PM)
in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And the demographics there play to her strengths.

So, I guess she can win all of those.



congrats VA -- but it's not over yet (j_wyatt - 2/12/2008 9:18:56 PM)

SurveyUSA 2/12/08:

Ohio:  Clinton 56% Obama 39%

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...



That means phonebanking TX and OH (Hugo Estrada - 2/12/2008 9:20:26 PM)
for the next few weeks


dated, but latest Texas poll: Clinton 48% Obama 38% (j_wyatt - 2/12/2008 9:24:59 PM)
IVR (?) Poll Jan. 31, 2008:

http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-...



Delegate count :) (Hugo Estrada - 2/12/2008 10:23:52 PM)
Thanks for the info!

It is important then to reduce the margin so that the delegate allocation is even then.



Delegate count :) (Hugo Estrada - 2/12/2008 10:23:53 PM)
Thanks for the info!

It is important then to reduce the margin so that the delegate allocation is even then.



Not going to happen. (thegools - 2/12/2008 9:16:31 PM)
Someone said:
I guess we'll get to see how Obama does with the scrutiny that the front-runner gets.

I believe he will be treated more as the leading candidate.  If his wins continue, the knives will get sharper.  Then the real test begins.  Will he be able to hold his own or will "buyer's remorse" set in.  Only time will tell.

I for one would prefer it to stay neck and neck.  It is much more interesting....and it does keep the attacks muted.

If Obama is to be the nominee, I believe it would be good for all sides to keep things positive and then to have him surge ahead just before Puerto Rica's primary (June 1st).

Think of the fun!

(If he secures a win too soon, we will have a long boring spring ahead of us.)



Depends on who does the attacking (DanG - 2/12/2008 9:20:17 PM)
Media goes negative, it's ok.

Hillary goes negative, and she may pay for it (a la Bill in SC).



That was me (aznew - 2/12/2008 9:26:19 PM)
and I meant scrutiny by the media.

Clinton going negative doesn't work. DanG is quite correct.



Interesting stat of the night (Randy Klear - 2/12/2008 9:07:23 PM)
With 40% of precincts in, Republicans are casting about 4% of their total vote for candidates who have dropped out.  Democrats are only at 1%.


proud to be part of that 1 % (thegools - 2/12/2008 9:19:11 PM)


Governor Kaine's statement on Obama's victory (Lowell - 2/12/2008 9:24:58 PM)
I want to congratulate my friend Barack Obama on his win today in Virginia's Democratic primary.  Both Senator Obama and Senator Clinton deserve credit for their hard work and their spirited campaigning across Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C.  We've fielded a tremendous group of Democratic candidates this year, and we should be proud of their incredible work.

Today, Virginia voters from across the Commonwealth came together around a message of hope and optimism. Today, voters showed confidence in Barack's ability to unite this country and transcend divisive Washington "politics-as-usual."

Barack Obama impressed me when I campaigned with him in 2005 and during Jim Webb's run in 2006. But, after having the unique opportunity to campaign for him across Virginia, I believe more than ever that Barack is the best candidate to unite our country and transform our politics in the cause of progress.

Virginians are results-oriented people.  Their support and enthusiasm on the campaign trail and at the polls today is proof positive that folks are looking for meaningful change and looking to a leader focused on a more hopeful future.

Congratulations to Senator Obama on his decisive victory.

So far, no comment from Gov. Kaine on the apparent resignation of his former campaign manager. :)



Obama... Checkmate? (pvogel - 2/12/2008 9:33:50 PM)
He needed  not just to defeat Hillary, but Stomp her flat.
Looks like thats what happened.


MSNBC reporting that Mike Henry has resigned (Randy Klear - 2/12/2008 9:37:23 PM)
I wonder if he guaranteed Virginia for Hillary. More likely it's just part of the Maggie Williams takeover, but it's an interesting thought.


I would really like to revel in this Victory.... (TMSKI - 2/12/2008 9:44:16 PM)
but there remains a chunk of people who seem to feel more comfortable with and vote for the Clinton machine. That chunk of the voting block is filling up an auditorium for Hillary (basketball stadium) in El Paso, TX.

Ever been there .... it's 80% Hispanic with a sister city Juarez a stones throw (literally) over the Rio Grand (not so grand river) in Mexico.

So in VA Beach Barrack draws 18 thousand .... in El Paso Hillary draws the same. And having listen to her stump speech her draw is not based upon up-lifting rhetoric. Hence the match ain't over ... no checkmate at this point.



Huge turnout in CD3 (Silence Dogood - 2/12/2008 9:45:10 PM)
With less than half of precincts reporting it's already looking to be the district with the highest turnout, both in terms of raw votes by percentage.  Which I predicted earlier!  The area south of Richmond might indeed end up be what's driving this election.  Which I predicted earlier!  So yay.

Watch the remaining precincts prove me wrong.

...what the eff'ing heck happened in CD11?  98% in and only like 15,000 votes?  3% active voter participation?  For Pete's sake.  With more than 70% in in the CD10, less than 7% participation?  This is actually kind of a sad day for NOVA.  Maybe they had better weather downstate?



Those numbers are obviously wrong (Lowell - 2/12/2008 9:46:41 PM)
There was heavy turnout in the 10th and 11th.


Glad to hear it (Silence Dogood - 2/12/2008 9:52:48 PM)
I had never wanted the state board of elections to be more wrong.


CNN reports (Lowell - 2/12/2008 9:54:59 PM)
nearly 23,000 votes cast in Fairfax County with just 16% of precincts reporting.


Wow, SBE is way different from that (Silence Dogood - 2/12/2008 10:07:27 PM)
I just switched to the county level breakdown, with 97% reporting they have only 13,000 votes county-wide.  Which is ludicrous.  Fairfax usually reports slower anyway so I was wondering why they thought they'd gotten all of their results in earlier than other counties this time.


I'd pretty much ignore these counts (Lowell - 2/12/2008 10:09:26 PM)
They obviously make no sense at all.


Have to watch something (Silence Dogood - 2/12/2008 10:13:06 PM)
An old tree branch iced over, split and knocked out my cable. :-(


The "Precincts Reporting" count is way off in Fairfax (Randy Klear - 2/12/2008 10:01:50 PM)
I just scrolled the precinct returns and see dozens of precincts not reported, not just 5.


Yeah (Silence Dogood - 2/12/2008 10:10:51 PM)
I just pulled that up, too.  It's more like they have 95% of their precints NOT reporting in.  I bet they have a couple of numbers backwards in a spreadsheet somewhere.


They're right now (Silence Dogood - 2/12/2008 11:56:45 PM)
This looks good.  REALLY good.  Almost as many people voted today in the Dem primary in VA-10 as voted for Judy Feder in the 2006 General.


What does it mean? (faithfull - 2/12/2008 10:07:54 PM)
District - (Delegates) - Percentage

CD 01-(4)-Obama-64    Clinton-34
CD 02-(4)-Obama-61    Clinton-37
CD 03-(6)-Obama-78    Clinton-20
CD 04-(5)-Obama-75    Clinton-24
CD 05-(4)-Obama-64    Clinton-35
CD 06-(4)-Obama-53    Clinton-45
CD 07-(5)-Obama-68    Clinton-28
CD 08-(7)-Obama-64    Clinton-35
CD 09-(4)-Obama-32    Clinton-65
CD 10-(5)-Obama-56    Clinton-42
CD 11-(6)-Obama-56    Clinton-42



Check the machine software (snolan - 2/13/2008 9:06:30 AM)
It looks like the columns in the 9th CD got reversed...  that's freaky.


Lots of precincts to go (jlmccreery - 2/12/2008 10:14:16 PM)
I've been looking at cities, and Newport News and Norfolk, which are running huge for Obama, still have less than half their precincts reporting. If tonight follows the same pattern as the Webb vs. Allen race, Obama's percentage should rise when these results come in.

Or am I missing something here?



Hard to say. (Silence Dogood - 2/12/2008 10:20:02 PM)
As far as the CD3 precinct goes, Obama's raw vote total will definitely rise faster than Hillary's, increasing his percentage statewide, but at the district level I don't think it's going to climb much higher than it already has.


Norfolk is down to 12 precincts (Randy Klear - 2/12/2008 10:29:06 PM)
and 4 of those are absentee/provisional ballot precincts. 6 of the others are mainly African-American. Obama's citywide percentage might move another point or so, but probably not more than that.


Obama victory song (Lowell - 2/12/2008 10:15:42 PM)


Now I'm gonna be humming that for the next few days.... (proudvadem - 2/13/2008 12:55:40 AM)

Sign, sealed, delivered! My awesome adopted city of Norfolk had 70% for Obama!

I am so proud to be a Dem tonight!!!

"Politics is not about power. Politics is not about money. Politics is not about winning for the sake of winning. Politics is about the improvement of people's lives. It's about advancing the cause of peace and justice in our country and the world. Politics is about doing well for the people."- the late Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MI)



My lord (Adam Malle - 2/12/2008 10:24:31 PM)
How pathetic, Clinton isn't even going to give a concession speech.  It is the political equivalent of closing your eyes, putting your fingers in your ears and yelling LA LA LA LA LA LA

Maybe if she ignores it, it will go away



She's already in Texas (Lowell - 2/12/2008 10:26:50 PM)
...as Markos mockingly puts it, "a state that matters."  Heh.


Maybe that's what she meant (spotter - 2/13/2008 8:34:51 AM)
by "false hope."


again - precincts reporting on state site bogus (totallynext - 2/12/2008 10:27:58 PM)
they are saying 227 of 232 are reporting for fairfax with 10,000 votes - come on.  It is the opposite - only 13 have reported.

Somebody has screwed up here - and this is going all the way to the news channels.



Any surprise at the flip with the rest of the state in CD9? (Barbara - 2/12/2008 10:31:39 PM)


I can explain the flip (Adam Malle - 2/12/2008 10:40:57 PM)
A lot of people down here in the ninth bought into the unpatriotic Muslim crap.  Even when I was able to convince people that it wasn't true they were still suspicious.  The fact that we were completely ignored by his campaign while the Clinton campaign sent Bill down here did not help either.  A little attention would have gone a long way.


Planned to visit SWVA (DanG - 2/12/2008 10:47:46 PM)
That wildfire stopped him.


To people (Adam Malle - 2/12/2008 11:08:12 PM)
 who live in Lee, wise, and Scott County, Roanoke is not southwest Virginia.  Roanoke is closer to central Virginia then to us. It didn't even have to be him personally, just somebody.  A couple hundred people have endorsed him, many of whom would have no problem relating to people in rural Virginia.  It would have just taken one to change some votes. I have always contended that a large portion of voters in Southwest Virginia vote for the candidate that is willing to throw us a bone. Mark Warner is a prime example, he gave us some attention and his numbers became competitive as a result.


Thanks for your explanation (Barbara - 2/12/2008 10:52:00 PM)


So why have I been so unobjective with Hillary Clinton tonight? (relawson - 2/12/2008 10:40:07 PM)
Remember those robo dialers against Edwards in South Carolina?  Or has the campaign already forgotten their past dirty deeds?

She didn't play fair, so why should I?  



Virginia Numbers (Barbara - 2/12/2008 10:55:21 PM)
I'm fascinated by the numbers of voters who turned out in each primary.  Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 2:1.  Why?  Are typical republicans staying home?  Are they crossing over (for the right reason or not)?


DPVA Chairman Dick Cranwell says (Lowell - 2/13/2008 6:54:52 AM)
"Sen. Obama has shown a remarkable ability to inspire people and make us believe that we really can be a better America. And that is why he was so successful in getting so many people here in Virginia out to vote."


Tom Perriello statement (Lowell - 2/13/2008 6:59:40 AM)
"Today, the nation witnessed Virginians turning out in unprecedented numbers for Democrats, an exciting preview for the energy that's to come in November," said Tom Perriello, Democratic candidate for Virginia's Fifth District. "It's clear that Virginians are hungry for a new generation of leadership and ready for a real change in our political system. Today's results bode very well for Democrats up and down the ticket in November."