RK ARCHIVE - Virginia Exit Poll: Obama 66%-Clinton 34%

Virginia Exit Poll: Obama 66%-Clinton 34%

By: Lowell
Published On: 2/12/2008 8:03:34 PM

Please see the "flip" for an exit poll from late this afternoon. It was sent to me without any additional information, except that Obama's winning big (66%-34%) in Virginia. I'm also hearing that Obama's winning big in Maryland, with one reliable source quoting a 63%-35% Obama margin in the exit polls.

UPDATE: Another reliable source tells me it's 61%-38% Obama in Virginia.

27% of Virginia Democrats decided on their candidate within the last week (since Super Tuesday). Most - 72%- make up their minds before that.
Time of Decision
Virginia Democratic Voters
Last Week 27%
Before That 72
A third of Virginia Democratic primary voters were voting in a PRIMARY for the first time.
First Time Primary Voter
Virginia Democratic Voters
YES 35%
NO 66
Among white voters, 32% were voting in a primary for the first time.
Among African American voters, 40% were voting in a primary fort the first time.
Today's Democratic primary in Virginia was open (Independents and Republicans could vote). Most voters were Democrats -71%. 21% were Independents.
Party Affiliation
Virginia Democratic Voters
Democrat 71%
Republican 8
Independents 21
The Economy was the most important issue for voters today. This has been the case throughout the campaign.
Most Important Issue
Virginia Democratic Voters
Economy 48%
War in Iraq 31
Health Care 16
In addition , about nine in 10 Virginia Democratic voters today said the economy was in bad shape.
View of U.S. Economy
Virginia Democratic Voters
Good 10%
Bad 89
Change was the most important candidate quality for Virginia Democrats today. Experience was a distant second.
Most Important Quality
Virginia Democratic Voters
Change 55%
Experience 23
Cares 11
Can Win 9
In terms of the tone of the campaign, voters today viewed Clinton as more of the attacker than Obama. 46% said she attacked unfairly, while 26% said that about him.
Who Attacked Unfairly?
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton Did 46%
Obama Did 26
Obama continues to be viewed as the candidate who can unite the country.
Most Likely to Unite Country
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 29%
Obama 69
Today, Virginia Democrats said Obama was the candidate most qualified to be commander inchief.
Most Qualified to be Commander in Chief
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 44%
Obama 54
Significant majorities today thought the country was ready for woman president or a black president.
Ready to Elect Woman
Virginia Democratic Voters
YES 85%
NO 15
Ready to Elect Black President
Virginia Democratic Voters
YES 85%
NO 14
VIRGINIA REPUBLICANS- Before Poll Closing
*EXIT POLL RESULTS
REPORTABLE BEFORE POLL CLOSE*
POLL CLOSE IS 7PM (ET)
Sharing values was the most important candidate quality for Virginia's Republican primary voters today.
Most Important Quality
Virginia Republican Voters
Believes 26%
Shares Values 46
Experience 17
Can Win 8
About six in 10 voters today said they listened to conservative talk radio.
Listen to Conservative Talk Radio
Virginia Republican Voters
YES 62
NO 37
Four in 10 voters today were white evangelicals.
White Evangelicals
Virginia Republican Voters
YES 41%
NO 59
VIRGINIA DEMOCRATS- After Poll Closing (7 PM)
EXIT POLL RESULTS FOR USE AFTER POLL CLOSE
POLL CLOSE IS 7PM (ET)
About 3 in 10 Democratic primary voters today were African American. Similar to the 33% it was in 2004. They voted overwhelmingly for Obama today.
Black Voters
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 10%
Obama 90
Among white voters, Clinton has a slight edge.
White Voters
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 51%
Obama 48
Obama is getting the support of both men and women today.
Men
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 34%
Obama 65
Women
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 42%
Obama 58
Obama is leading among white men.
White Men
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 43%
Obama 55
Independents (one in five voters today) backed Obama .
Independents
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 33%
Obama 66
Obama leads among self-identified Democrats as well.
First Time Primary Voters
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 36%
Obama 64
Among Virginia Democratic primary voters, significant majorities said they would be satisfied with either candidate as the Democratic nominee.
Satisfied with Nominee (among all Democratic voters)
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton (Clinton + Either) 65%
Obama (Obama + Either) 81%
Obama Voters in Virginia are somewhat divided as to whether they would be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee.
Satisfied with Clinton as Nominee
(among Obama voters)
Maryland Democratic Voters
Yes 45%
No 54
Clinton voters were more likely to say they would be satisfied with Obama as the Democratic nominee.
Satisfied with Obama as Nominee
(among Clinton voters)
Maryland Democratic Voters
Yes 56%
No 44
VIRGINIA REPUBLICANS- After Poll Closing
EXIT POLL RESULTS FOR USE AFTER POLL CLOSE
POLL CLOSE IS 7PM (ET)
More than half of Virginia Republican primary voters said McCain's positions on the issues were not conservative enough. About four in 10 said his positions were about right.
McCain's Positions on the Issues
Virginia Republican Voters
Too Conservative 3%
Not Conservative Enough 53
Just Right 41
Huckabee won the support of those voters who listen to conservative talk radion.
Talk Radio Listeners
Virginia Republican Voters
McCain 38%
Huckabee 48
Among FREQUENT Talk Radio Listeners
Virginia Republican Voters
McCain 32%
Huckabee 55
By a wide margin, McCain is viewed as the candidate most likely to beat the Democrat in November.
Most Likely to Beat Democrat
Virginia Republican Voters
McCain 75%
Huckabee 17
McCain is also viewed as the candidate best able to manage the economy.
Most Qualified to Managge Economy
Virginia Republican Voters
McCain 38%
Huckabee 27
A majority of Republican primary voters would be satisfied if McCain was the nominee.
McCain as Nominee
Virginia Republican Voters
Satisfied 75%
Not Satisfied 24
Among Huckabee backers, 64% said they would be satisfied with McCain as the nominee.
Huckabee won the support of white evangelicals.
White Evangelicals
Virginia Republican Voters
Huckabee 61%
McCain 28
About on in five voters today were Independents, and they were split between McCain and Huckabee. Ron Paul received 20% of the Independent vote.
Independents
Virginia Republican Voters
McCain 38%
Huckabee 35
Paul 20
About 7 in 10 voters were conservatives today, and they backed Huckabee.
Conservatives
Virginia Republican Voters
McCain 35%
Huckabee 51
Moderates supported John McCain over Huckabee by 67% to 26%.

Comments

A great exit poll question for Virginians would have been (Alter of Freedom - 2/12/2008 8:14:29 PM)

If you voted for Jim Webb in November 2006 did you vote:
Democrat (Obama)
Democrat (Clinton)
Republican (McCain)
Republican (Huckabee)
Va independents carried Webb into office against Allen and would have been interesting to see where that breakdown this time around came in since people tote McCain's independent infl;uence and yet it seems Obama is taking those in Virginia.

Thank you Virginia (relawson - 2/12/2008 8:36:56 PM)

One step closer to an Obama nomination. I hope your super delegates follow the will of your voters.

Very likely (legacyofmarshall - 2/12/2008 9:01:07 PM)

All 3 Dem. VA congressmen have endorsed Obama and the Governor has endorsed Obama.

Two Virginia Party members (Jen McClellan and Lionel Spruill) endorsed Clinton.

That leaves a few DNC members who live in VA and other people who tend not to be connected to the state much at all and...

Chairman Dicky Cranwell and
Senator Jim Webb
My guess is that both will follow the will of the Commonwealth and select Senator Obama.

A total blowout! (Greg - 2/12/2008 8:59:25 PM)

And it shows how diverse a coalition Obama is putting together. He was ahead among alomst every demographic group in the exit polling.

The "Hillary is still inevitable because of TX-OH-PA" meme is starting to wear awfully thin...

For our friends from Maryland (Lowell - 2/12/2008 9:23:00 PM)

who think Maryland's so much more enlightened than Virginia - take this and do something with it! :)

Democratic voters in Virginia were a little more likely than their counterparts in Maryland to say the country "definitely" was ready for a black or female president, rather than just "probably" ready.

Ha.

Get Ready, Its Time to Unite the Nation (floodguy - 2/12/2008 10:04:12 PM)

Obama continues to be viewed as the candidate who can unite the country.
Most Likely to Unite Country
Virginia Democratic Voters
Clinton 29%
Obama 69 %

As we move forward, people need to stop and think what this actually means and how it can be accomplished. Looking back at the 2000 and 2004 elections and the Republican victory, Obama supporters can learn from this lesson from the Republicans' mistakes.

And as its goes, all things start at the grass roots level, so right here for example, is a fine place to start. Obama's reach to "different" Americans is what is attracting me and probably most of us, so we should extend this to conservative and Republican Americans no different as we would to blacks, whites, Hispanics, Asians, Africans, etc. Basically I'm tired of seeing others with different political viewpoints constantly slammed, especially when they aren't even around to reply or engage in a discussion.

Solutions require the melting of ideas from all of America. This country has created many great Americans with great ideas, and as many of those which are created on the left, are also created on the right. That's this nation's history.

The politics of division is what has decimated this nation giving us what we have we are today. Rejection of the Clintons, the conservative right, and Beltway Insiders (nearly McCain today in Virginia) are a sign of what America is longing for. With our help, Obama can begin to fix all this; but lets not just leave the effort to politicans - we as Americans need to do the same.