The Obamanon - Obama will put more states in play as the Democratic nominee

By: Dan
Published On: 2/11/2008 12:11:23 AM

Talk of a brokered convention is frightening to all of us.  If Democrats do not unite behind a candidate until Denver, it gives McCain an extra edge to campaign as the Republican nominee for five more months than will the Democratic nominee.  Yet, Obama won four states easily on Saturday and Sunday.  If he wins DC, Maryland, and Virginia, it may unleash a national surge where he becomes the presumptive nominee, and Democrats may vote for him on March 4th in greater numbers just to avoid a brokered convention; while pressure will come from the DNC and others for Hillary to step aside, as early as Wednesday morning if she gets killed in the Beltway primaries.

Frankly, Obama matches up much better with McCain than Hillary does.  However, we never know how the next month will actually shape up.  So, below the flip is my assessment of how states will play depending on the nominee.
Obama vs. McCain
For Obama, safe states are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington State, and Washington DC.  
13 States + DC (~38% of U.S. population, 186 electoral votes)

For McCain, safe states are: Arizona, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  
19 States (~25% of U.S. population, 144 electoral votes)

States leaning for McCain are: Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina
6 States (~16% of U.S. population, 96 electoral votes)

Toss-up States are: Colorado, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia
7 States (~10% of U.S. population, 60 electoral votes)

States leaning for Obama are: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
5 States (~11% of U.S. population, 65 electoral votes)


Obama: 251 with leaning states
McCain: 227 with leaning states
Toss-ups left: 60 electoral votes

Clinton vs. McCain
For Clinton, safe states include: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington State, and Washington DC.  
13 States + DC (~38% of U.S. population, 186 electoral votes)

For McCain, safe states include: Arizona, Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  
22 States (~31% of U.S. population, 183 electoral votes)

States leaning for McCain are: Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, and Virginia
4 States (~12% of U.S. population, 57 electoral votes)

Toss-up States are: Colorado, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio
6 States (~8% of U.S. population, 47 electoral votes)

States leaning for Clinton are: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
5 States (~11% of U.S. population, 65 electoral votes)


Clinton: 251 with leaning states
McCain: 240 with leaning states
Toss-ups left: 47 electoral votes

Clinton's advantages over Obama
Clinton's may have an advantage in Arkansas, which might be in play if she is the nominee, but leaning Republican.  Other than that, she has no advantages.

Obama's advantages over Clinton
Obama puts Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Carolina in play, to only leaning McCain, and turns Virginia into a swing state.  Although the numbers are pretty close, Obama ends up with a better opportunity to win, as Republicans unimpressed with McCain are less motivated.  

It will still be a close race for Clinton-McCain.  If I were to pose a guess on swing states, without their running mate yet considered, I think McCain would beat Hillary in Colorado, Nevada, and, New Mexico, to obtain 259 electoral votes, and Hillary would win all of Maine, New Hampshire, and Ohio to obtain 279 electoral votes.

For Obama-McCain, my guess is that McCain takes Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, for 246 electoral votes.  Obama takes all of Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia for 292 electoral votes.  

Comments



Did you see (Lowell - 2/11/2008 6:25:14 AM)
this analysis (Senate States: Advantage Obama)?.  Very interesting.



Interesting Analysis (aznew - 2/11/2008 10:04:27 AM)
But as you look at the contests state-by-state, does it hold up?

It seems to me coattails might affect four races -- La., NM, NH and Colorado. (Cook may have Me as Leans GOP, but Collins ain't losing there)

I would submit that Clinton helps more in N.H. with hr appeal to women voters, who threw the primary her way, and in N.M., with her appeal to Hispanics, who might move in some number to McCain if Obama is the nominee.

That only leaves 2 seats, Co. and La., and I can't really comment on them.

And, Lowell, one emerging issue that I think deserves a closer look, and that I am sure we will be hearing more about it today, is the difference between Obama's performance in caucus states versus primary states. I don't want to speculate on the reasons for this dichotomy, but it existence is undeniable.

I think tomorrow's primary will be very telling. Obama clearly has the edge here in enthusiasm and intensity. If Clinton should win the primary, or even be within 3 or 4 points, however, it would suggest that while the depth of his support is huge, the breadth of it is not. The implication of that for november are TBD, but they would require consideration.

On the other hand, if the polls are right and Obama wins Virginia by a huge margin, then I think Clinton is in trouble, in the same way that had she lost California, or even if it had been close, she would have been in trouble.



My recollection of Super Tuesday in New Mexico (Randy Klear - 2/11/2008 5:15:04 PM)
is that Obama held his own among Hispanics. The Latino balance varied wildly from state to state; the edge Clinton had among Hispanics in New York, New Jersey and California did not extend everywhere. Based on this, it doesn't seem that she offers a coattail advantage in NM.

Indeed, there is some question whether Clinton offers a coattail advantage anywhere.  One of the sad truths about the Bill Clinton administration is that, no matter how good it may have been for the country or the economy, it was pretty much a disaster for the rest of the Democratic Party. We lost both houses of Congress after 2 years of Clinton leadership, for the first time in 40 years. We took a beating in governorships and state legislatures, too. It took a dozen years to get the House back, and our Senate majority is nominal at best, since it hinges on the leadership's pandering to Joe Lieberman, Party Of One. A lot of the fingerpointing of 1994 was aimed, fairly or not, at Hillary and the "two for the price of one" chatter coming out of the White House. I'm not sure I see how that has changed, other than that Bill's influence as First Spouse promises to be greater than Hillary's was, given the senior statesman role he holds as ex-president.



Randy - this issue (aznew - 2/11/2008 8:12:48 PM)
was looked at in depth on another thread several days ago. Like so many issues in this election, how one views the Clinton years and its effect on the Democratic Party's fortunes seems to depend on who one supports in this election, or perhaps it is the other way around -- I can't tell at this point.

The facts, of course, are the facts. The debate is over the extent that Clinton bears responsibility.



Markos explains how it's going (Lowell - 2/11/2008 6:03:20 PM)
to happen here.  


I agree with Markos' basic point (aznew - 2/11/2008 8:09:32 PM)
which is that each of our candidates has a path to the WH in the general election. For so many reasons, the terrain favors us, regardless of the nominee.

Lowell, I'm sure you're pretty busy today and tomorrow. Good luck.



Michigan (Alter of Freedom - 2/11/2008 11:03:26 AM)
Surprised given the current state of affairs in Michigan regarding taxes, jobs, and loss of jobs resulting from things like NAFTA that can easily be linked to the former Clinton administration and given the descision regarding the Primary this year with Michigan/Florida that you think that both Obama or Clinton would beat McCain there. If Romney genuinely falls in line and supports McCain there and Obama does not articulate more of an economic package that can actually benefit Michigan, good luck. Things are fine right now in the primary, but come the general whoever it is that wins the Dem nomination will have to come through with alot more specifics on policy than they have offered up thus far. Republicans campaigned this season heavily in Michigan while Dems sat it out through agreement. I wonder just what impact that may have as the election cycle plays out.


Co is Va's western "twin" (hereinva - 2/11/2008 11:24:38 AM)
Its interesting how similar CO and VA are in their political dynamics.Both have been "red" leaning states and have experienced similar transitions in their state legislatures and governor's office.  VA has a strong conservative HQ in Virginia Beach, CO has Colorado Springs (Focus on Family).

CO went 65% Obama with tremendous caucus turn-out. Mark Udall is from a well known political family and well liked.  Should Obama get the nomination..Udall will be joining James Webb in the Senate with a comfortable margin. He will work hard to win his Senate race, regardless of who wins the Presidential nomination.