The first of RK's photos arrive! Here are a few shots from Barack Obama's speech at the JJ dinner last night. Plus a few random observations...
* While both Clinton and Obama had strong crowd support (and very enthusiastic at that), Obama appeared to take the lead in this area. There more frequent and louder Barack chants throughout the evening. And the floor in front of the podium was more chaotic and mobbed for Obama's appearance than for Clinton's - I was able to get right up under the podium for her speech but couldn't get within 25 feet when he spoke.
* Not that this means anything at all, but Hillary's voice appeared to be wearing out and cracking during point of her speech. She's obviously pushing her voice to its limit. Barack's was strong throughout.
* The dueling Obama/Clinton crowds outside the arena were a lot of fun. They even caused a minor fender-bender due to driver gawking.
* Overall I've got mixed feelings on the venue (compared to the convention center), but in the end it was a good choice for a combo dinner/rally. Maybe not for just a dinner, but this year was different.
* The reception before the dinner was awful. A huge number of well dressed people were packed into a large, noisy, stuffy, basketball gym and had to pay outrageous prices for drinks.
A few more photos from Obama's speech on the flip. And more from the whole day will be coming later. Stay tuned.
Just curious, does SJL stand for Southern Jerk from Louisiana? Guess we'll have to check with Mary Matalin.
The White House is won with electoral votes, not popular votes. Where Clinton is popular, she'll do well in the popular votes. But she'd likely carry fewer states than Kerry. There is no realistic scenario in which Hillary Clinton wins enough electoral votes to become president.
In the general election, Obama will carry every big state that Clinton has won in the primaries so far AND he has the ability to be competitive in states like Virginia.
If Hillary Clinton receives the nomination, then Virginia will be abandoned for purposes of the Presidential election: we will never see her again. She will put no staff and no money into Virginia, because she knows that the independents and potential crossover voters in Virginia despise her.
If Obama wins the nomination, he will carry Virginia, and many other swing states.
But I think people should back away from demonizing Hillary, even if idiots like this troll get us riled up.
Both Hillary and Barack have advantages in some states versus others, and there are states that one could probably pick up, but not the other.
Whoever wins, Hillary or Barack, will fairly easily win the Presidency in November.
There is not one blue state from '04 that will flip -- not one -- and Iowa is 99+% certain to flip back to blue. If Hillary is the nominee, she'll easily carry Arkansas, and probably Florida, and that would be the election.
I think Hillary is more competitive than Barack in AR, FL, AZ, TN, KY, and WV, and maybe LA.
Barack will be more competitive than Hillary in C0, VA, NC, KS, ID, NE, GA, SC, AL, AK, and MS. And regardless of what that troll says, yes, I think Barack can actually carry some of those states in the general, especially with depressed turnout from evangelicals in places like Kansas and Georgia. I think Barack 100% carries Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina if he's the nominee.
Both will be competitive in NV, NM, 0H, and M0, and I believe either one will carry the majority of those states in the general (probably all).
I am a Hillary supporter, but I have felt that our party is blessed to have two great candidates, and if my candidate didn't win, I would not mind switching my support to the winner of the nomination. However, after paying $175 to experience last night's nasty display of rudeness on the part of the DPVA in the set-up of the venue, the line-up of the speakers and the appalling behavior of the Governor, had several people at our tables feeling a lot less connected to the Democratic party. People started walking before Obama finished speaking. We'd heard enough.
Tim Kaine better not ask me for my money, my help or my vote anytime soon. There is an appropriate way for a governor to show support for a candidate, such as Mark Warner's demeanor during the JJ dinner in 2004, when all candidates had equal opportunity to speak. Tim Kaine's intro of Obama last night was over the top and offensive to a least 50 percent of the people sitting around the tables in the room -- who all worked hard to get him where he is.
Still, the disrespect and venom directed at the Clintons does turn me off Obama somewhat. I'll still support him, of course, should he get the nomination. But I also think you can't have it both ways. You can't argue you are a new kind of unity politics while at the same time trashing a fellow democrat.
That was Tim Kaine's best speech, ever.
Last night was one of the least dignified political events I've ever witnessed. Between the Obama cheering section that wouldn't quiet down for speeches and Doug Wilder's highly inappropriate opening remarks (it's not an Obama rally, it's a party unifying event).
The most disappointing thing... was that Senator Obama took an event supposed to unify the party, our JJ, and used it to take petty swipes at Senator Clinton when he clearly has the momentum.
In Michigan, Hillary's name was the only one of the ballot. And you think that is fair and that it should count?
As for Florida, the candidates agreed beforehand not to campaign there--Hillary fudged that one a bit. And they ALL agreed that Florida and Michigan would NOT count.
The time to "stand up for the voters of Florida and Michigan" was THEN, not now. You simply cannot change the rules in the middle of the game without being cursed with the moniker of "cheater" for the rest of your life, complete with the * by your name.
Suddenly changing the rules now would split this party in two. It would be Florida 2000 all over again, except within our own party. You can forget about the African American vote. You can forget about the possibility of swing voters--not with the media screaming "CHEATER" and "WILL DO ANYTHING TO WIN!" at every opportunity.
The fact that Hillary is actively engaged trying to get Florida and Michigan to count NOW reinforces negative opinions people may already have about her, as it confirms suspicions about her being someone who flaunts rules and laws, who gets what she wants no matter whom it hurts, who puts self above country, is manipulative, cannot be trusted, etc. etc. etc.
You don't want to go there. You CANNOT go there. Hillary may still win this thing; let her win in honestly or everybody loses.
So the Obama Candidacy offers me hope, idealism and admittedly a fair amount of romanticism that the common people can have influence and make the critical difference. I buy into that Populism in a BIG WAY. I'm a sucker for that every time .... because well I believe it's true.
As Barrack Obama IS WINNING across the country perhaps you should wake up to the fact that in the general election he is a far better candidate to go against McCain with a proven capacity to win the independent vote.
I'm sure Obama is the only one that has the chance to turn some red states into blue states this November. Virginia for Obama!!!
I will also finsh editing so that each of the three key speechs by Clinton, Warner, and Obama and their introductions (the order they appeared) will be up there soon also seperately. Sorry it took so long, I was exhausted from working the dinner all night on my feet and then driving home by 2 AM.... I made the drive OK, BUT I couldn't clearly use the editor until after some sleep.
Converting the five hours of raw tape and DVDs took a lot of computer and wall clock time.
We will have a summary analysis on Mark Levine's Inside Scoop TV show tonight with some interesting individual interviews included....
As soon as I have the URLs for the links to the two halves I will post them here and elsewhere for everyone. I will continue on the seperate speeches as well and give you those in few hours.....
High resolution DVDs for replay on other TV and cable access stations can be made available, but not for sale....
Second_part_JJ_Dinner_Video_w_Warner_Obama_02-09-2008.mpg
http://video.google.com/videop...
Speeches by Candidates and their introductions only......
Clinton_Speech_and_Intro_DPVA_JJ_02-09-2008.mpg
http://video.google.com/videop...
Obama_Speech_and_Kaine_Intro_DPVA_JJ_02-09-2008.mpg
http://video.google.com/videop...
Warner_Speech_and_Intro_DPVA_JJ_02-09-2008.mpg
http://video.google.com/videop...