Yeah, yeah, I know about the recent polls that have Obama up big. I also seem to recall certain polls in New Hampshire that had him up big. And other polls just last week that overstated his standing. This analysis by Josh Patashnik of TNR, which I look at in depth on the flip, provides a sobering conclusion:
An unexpected Clinton win in Virginia--which should not really be unexpected at all--might be enough to deflate Obama's strong February, and get her through to March 4, when the contests Texas and Ohio look like more favorable terrain.
So, don't expect a win this week as if it's preordained. There's a reason why Clinton is focusing so much energy here. She knows about her solid chances to pull off a New Hampshire-style upset, and she knows what that would do to Obama's momentum.
Thus, it's important to (1) not over inflate expectations and realize that Obama isn't a shoe in here and (2) work double hard to help make those most recent polls a reality.
So, let's take a deeper look at our complex Commonwealth beyond the snapshot polling:
In the wake of Super Tuesday's split between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the conventional wisdom is that the rest of the February primary calendar favors the senator from Illinois. On balance, the evidence is pretty strong. Obama does
Here's a bit more from the analysis
.... Virginia's demographic profile is much less favorable to Obama than its Beltway cousins and the Deep South states where he's won so far. It's a border state, and only 19.9 percent black. Its closest demographic parallels among states that have voted so far are Tennessee, where Obama lost by 13 points, and Missouri, where he won by only ten thousand votes.In 2004, African Americans made up 33 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Virginia. If the proportion is the same this year and Obama wins them 80-20, he'd need about 37 percent of the white vote to win the state. That's certainly achievable, given his totals elsewhere. But it's no sure thing. In Tennessee, he won only 26 percent of the white vote; in Missouri he won 39 percent. In other Southern states his totals have ranged from to 25 percent (Alabama) to 43 percent (Georgia).
Of course, we can't make equal comparisons with any states, including our neighbors in Tennessee and our friends in the Show Me State. We've got that newly forming D.C. metro area, right? Well....
Is there reason to believe that Virginia's white Democratic electorate will be more predisposed to vote for Obama than it was in Missouri and (especially) Tennessee? Yes, due to the growing strength of upscale, educated liberals in the Washington suburbs. But while this difference is real, it isn't overwhelming. Using income as a proxy, in 2004, 18 percent of Democratic primary voters in Virginia made more than $100,000. This year, in Missouri and Tennessee, the comparable figures were 15 percent and 14 percent. That edge goes up slightly when one includes voters making between $75,000 and $100,000 per year, but those voters aren't as reliably pro-Obama as their richer counterparts. In short, one would guess that Obama would do somewhat better among whites in Virginia than he did in Missouri and Tennessee--but not dramatically better, all else equal....[I]n 2004, only 28 percent of Democratic primary votes in the state were cast in the inner Washington suburbs (Arlington County, Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, and Fairfax County). There are still quite a few beer-track, culturally conservative white Democrats in other parts of the state. The primary can be seen, in part, as a contest between pundit Tom Schaller's Virginia (wherein Democrats win by strengthening the Obama coalition of blacks and upscale whites) and political consultant Dave "Mudcat" Saunders's Virginia (wherein they win by peeling off working-class rural whites--and by swearing. A lot.) Neither one of these camps is clearly stronger than the other, which is exactly why commentators should expect the Democratic primary to be close.
The article does use the lack of polls showing an Obama romp as another data point. But, of course, we have such polls now. However, had he written this article today, I'm sure he'd be pointing out how unreliable "Obama up big!" polling has been so far this year. However, Clinton was up big in October, polling that is relevant because ....
... they do suggest a strong base of support for Clinton in the state--especially given that in 2004, 56 percent of Democratic primary voters were women.
So, even in the current polling showing Obama's lead, there has to be some underlying foundation of former Clinton support. So, there's no telling whether those former Clinton supporters might change their mind again. A lot can happen between now and Tuesday.
Perhaps you're not not buying any of this. So remember that a narrow Obama statewide win doesn't necessarily guarantee him a victory where it really matters: in the delegate count.
And even if Obama wins the statewide vote, the delegate count might not break his way, since his strongest supporters, African Americans, are packed heavily into two of the state's eleven congressional districts. Overall, Obama can expect to have the edge in four districts (the two heavily black districts and two more in the Washington suburbs), while Clinton can plan on doing well in four heavily white districts in exurban and rural Virginia. The remaining three districts remain up for grabs.
Now, before you say "All is lost!" and change your phonebanking plans, the author notes that Obama has plenty of advantages. On top of the significant African American population and the D.C. metro professionals that might trend his way, Obama could also benefit from support from independents and Republicans (our open primary is one of the easiest for non-Democrats to vote in), the support of respected officials like Governor Kaine and former Governor Wilder, and the great grassroots volunteer efforts by people like you.
So, let's build on his strengths and work hard this weekend -- but let's also realize that the Clinton has her strengths too.
I talked to someone from 3rd CD, who expects the vote there to be about 70% for Obama.
But there is plenty of Clinton support. Mary Margaret Whipple is on board with Clinton - I spoke with her husband Tom about an hour ago. And I suspect that she will run close in the 8th CD, although I still think Obama carries it by at least 3-5%. And I know Don Beyer delayed his trip to Richmond so he could knock on doors in Alexandria today.
I may post again later if I hear anything more.
All registered voters are independents in Virginia.
So Clinton winning even one gives her an edge. However she should be favored in Maine given demographics and that Obama will only be there for one rally before the caucus. If she wins Maine AND Virginia then it's over for Obama.
The only advantage of having the expectations so high is that if he beats them - he can beat even the lofty expectations - and end up knocking her out. If he goes 7-0 and pads his delegate lead by 50-100 then the campaign narrative may change. But HRC is stubborn so who knows.
-Fred
That doesn't, however, suggest that there are more Obama than Hillary supporters out there. Instead, it tells us that all the Obama volunteers across Virginia did an amazing job at identifying Obama supporters early. Thanks to their great work, we can make sure that when we phone bank and canvass in the run up to Tuesday, we can have confidence that we will be bringing as many Obama supporters to the polls as we can!
All you early Obama volunteers in VA who did those voter IDs, THANK YOU! You made my life so much more pleasant today!
"11:42 a.m.
It doesn't look good for Clinton at Monroe Middle School.
The line to the Clinton box is empty. The line to vote for Obama is about a half block long."
Not to say we shouldn't work, but no reason to unnecessarily dampen some enthusiasm. Some don't like to dance until other people are on the dancefloor.