There's some seriously bad news out of the Clinton campaign today, including a bombshell on the financial front. Kos has the rundown here. In sum, Kos writes, "it should be obvious that the race has shifted and that the Clinton campaign is reeling and Obama is now the front-runner." Also see Chris Bowers at Open Left, who writes:
A campaign that is now on course to be down by more than 100 pledged delegates in two weeks didn't "tie." Just like Mitt Romney, any campaign that is talking about changing delegate allocation rules didn't "tie." A campaign that is plugging its website to try and raise money didn't "tie." A campaign that talks about stopping the momentum currently enjoyed by its opponent didn't "tie." That is a campaign back on its heels. As I wrote last night, this was not a tie, and Obama clearly has the edge.Now, Clinton can still make a stand in Ohio and Texas on March 4th, where the electorate is much more favorable to her than it is the rest of February. However, if she fails to score victories there, there is no way she can win the pledged delegate count in this nomination campaign, and the floodgates could open for Obama. At that point, her only other path to the nomination would be through super delegates and controlling the Michigan / Florida delegation seating process. At best, that is a backdoor path to the nomination that will force a crisis of legitimacy in the Democratic nominee.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that. The first thing is to make sure Barack Obama wins the "Potomac Primary" -- Maryland, DC and Virginia -- on Tuesday. Then, hopefully, Obama's huge advantage in money and momentum can take it from there. We'll see.
P.S. On the polling front, there are some contradictory results -- Rasmussen shows it narrowing while Gallup shows it going the opposite direction. Who knows?
I just hope Obama can pull away over the next few weeks. Bring on Chesapeake Tuesday!
Amaizing! Obama could have a $30M February!!!!
SUPER FAT TUESDAY INDEED!
It's a 30 point swing since yesterday!!!
What is going on!?
He's easily going to win Nebraska, and should win (no guarantees) in Washington. Louisiana will be closer than it would've been pre-Katrina; it depends on whether Louisiana Dems think like other Deep South Dems, or whether they think like Appalachian Dems (TN, AR). Personally, I'm thinking that Louisiana is much more deep south than appalachia, so I think Obama should split it even.
Then there is Maine. Is Maine going to be like Mass or Conn? It's a caucus, which may help Obama a bit.
Then there's the Potomac Races. Obama will likely win DC by massive numbers, and should probably win Maryland by a close margin. Virginia is a big if; he's racked up a LOT of support amongst Democratic Leaders in VA. He's got the Governor's Support, by far more legislators than Hillary, and all three Virginia Democratic Congressmen. Plus, an abundance of mayors, including Doug Wilder. A Jim Webb endorsement could put Virginia into the "leans Obama" column, but without that, I'd say Virginia is a pure toss-up. Obama has to keep it close enough in NoVA so that what is sure to be a large majority in Hampton Roads and Richmond can take effect.
Longtime Clinton friends say she recognizes the peril in careening between near-death primary night experiences and small-bore victories.Although the friends did not have details, they believe she may go ahead with the campaign shake-up she had been planning just before her surprise victory in New Hampshire.
Fascinating.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomb...
By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.The forecast doesn't include Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of delegates by the Democratic National Committee for holding primaries ahead of the schedule set out by the party. Clinton, who won uncontested primaries in both states, is vowing a fight to have those delegates -- slated to be 366 in total -- seated at the nominating convention.
``This is only one of an infinite number of scenarios,'' Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said, adding that the release of the information was unintended.
The article further states:
Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the campaign document. The final contest is a primary June 7 in Puerto Rico.
I didn't have time to read all but I think most are with me on this one, now that I've looked over some. Expect Obama entrace at the convention to sound like this, "the rail splitting state pledges its delegate.....,for Clinton,the Empire state pledges its delegates....