Before Texas and Ohio . . . the next two weeks

But here's the thing

1) There are a series of contests between now and February 19, and then a 2-week layoff before March 4 when TX and OH and RI and VT vote

3) I would think Obama is positioned to do very well in most of the intervening events (with the real battleground being the Potomac primary next week)

4) and success in those would fuel the momentum he seems to already have

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Richardson's endorsement may now be pretty useless.  With the exception of TX, there is no state left where the Hispanic vote has a huge impact.  CA, NM, AZ and CO voted yesterday and NV already had its caucuses.  

IN quite a few of the forthcoming states -   VA, DC and MD for example - there is a significant portion of the voting population that is African-American.  

I would think that as of right now Obama has more cash on hand, and while probably having a higher burn rate than Clinton has more ability to raise from current donors whereas Clinton has been far more reliant on those who have maxed out.

It is not clear what Edwards will do.  And what will the unions who were supporting him do.   If he and/or his support goes to Obama, that may trump any existent institutional advantage that Clinton  had.

here's the schedule

SAT FEB 9
Louisiana Primary 67 delegates
Nebraska Caucus 31 delegates
Washington Caucus 97 delegates
Virgin Islands Other 9 delegates

I would think Obama is likely to have a clear advantage in all of those  He does better in caucuses, and LA will still have a heavily black voting population

SUN FEB 10
Maine         Caucus 34 delegates

I don't know if there is polling data.  It is a caucus.  I could imagine Clinton pulling this one out, except if the news from the day before is a solid Obama win

TUE FEB 12
DC       Primary 37 delegates
Maryland   Primary 99 delegates
Virginia   Primary 101 delegates

This "Potomac Primary" should be advantage Obama.  He will win DC going away  In Maryland Clinton had early institutional support, but the state has a significant portion of the Democratic electorate that is Black  Further, there is a heavily contested primary in the 4th CD (Wynn challenged by Edwards) which is a predominantly Black district and the additional turnout should further help Obama.  As for VA, it is one state where the institutional advantage is clearly on Obama's side.  Gov. Tim Kaine endorsed early last year, two of the three Dem Congressmen (Boucher in SW, Scott from Richmond to Tidewater) have gone Obama, most of the Edwards support has already come out for OBama,  he has 10 of the 21 Democratic members of the state senate (I am not sure about Clinton, but I think she has 2), and he has an increasing number of mayors and other officials.  

TUE FEB 19
Hawaii      Caucus         29 delegates
Wisconsin Primary 92 delegates

There is no doubt Obama will win HA by a significant margin.  WI will be the battleground, but since it is a neighboring state, with much of the population covered by Chicago media, I would think Obama would start with a strong advantage.

Imagine that Obama wins all or almost all of those contests.  If he continues on a roll his fundraising will also increase, and the sense of momentum going into the 4 primaries the 1st weekend in March will be quite interesting.

After March 4, there is another slower period, with a caucus in WY on Mar 8 (I would say advantage Obama) and a primary on Mar 11 in MS which Obama will win, giving him momentum going into Penna on April 22, a state in which Clinton has huge institutional support and the kind of Demographics (a lot of older voters) which would favor her.  BUT - it also gives Obama 3 weeks for the people to get to know him, and in those circumstances I would think he has demonstrated his ability to move up to and even past Clinton.

Overall summary?  Too soon to tell, but between now and Penna I think the lay of the land favors Obama.  And if he keeps winning the majority of contest, the remaining superdelegates might start to swing his way, particularly if it begins to be certain that McCain is the Republican nominee.

Of course, endorsements of Clinton by both Richardson and Edwards could change the dynamics quite a bit.

But going forwards, I still give the edge to Obama.  I do not think Clinton can put him away in TX and OH, and if he could actually split the delegates in those two states, I think it becomes marginally possibly he could win the nomination outright.  In the meantime, last night probably helped him more than it helped her, even though it stopped some of her bleeding.

What do you think?

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