With 24 States voting for at least one party on Super Tuesday, the election may be decided for both parties. There are 22 Democratic Primaries and 21 Republican Primaries. Analyses of these races is below. I am not including U.S. territories. I am not going into detail about delegates because they are allocated differently in each state; not just based on percentage of the vote.
Alabama - Obama 55, Clinton 44
Hillary was leading Alabama until recently in the polls, but Obama has been surging. Alabama has a black population of 26% as compared with 29% in South Carolina. Like Florida, it has a retirement population, although not as significant. McCain is leading the GOP polls, and should win by about five over Huckabee with Romney close behind in third.
Arizona - Clinton 54, Obama 45
This race may still be wide open for the Democrats. Multiple polls showed John Edwards and undecided voters made up at least a quarter of the vote. Still, Hillary looks to be in good shape to win here. For the Republicans, McCain should win his home state easily, by 15 over Romney, who won't be saved by the large Mormon population in Arizona. Huckabee will be at 10%.
Arkansas - Clinton 63, Obama 36
While technically, this isn't Hillary's home state, this is where Bill Clinton helps. With Edwards out of the race, it helps Obama, but he will still lose big. Huckabee will win his home state by a wide margin.
See the rest below the flip
California - Clinton 51, Obama 48
How will early voting affect this race, which should be a close one? I believe Clinton will win, but that doesn't mean Obama will be out of the race. McCain should beat Romney by about 6 points, with Huckabee at 12%.
Colorado Caucus - Obama 53, Clinton 46
Obama has been polling well here, and should pull away to a comfortable victory. Romney has looked good in the polls, and should benefit from its small, but significant Mormon population. I predict Romney wins by 19 over McCain. Huckabee will get about 16% of the vote.
Connecticut - Clinton 50, Obama 49
Obama has been surging in Connecticut, where the grassroots boosted Ned Lamont in 2006. However, I still believe Clinton will edge him out slightly. McCain will beat Romney by 7, with Huckabee below 10%.
Georgia- Obama 58, Clinton 41
Obama will win big in Georgia, almost as big as he did in South Carolina. Huckabee will win by seven over McCain, with Romney about four points behind McCain.
Illinois - Obama 64, Clinton 35
Obama will win big in his home state of Illinois, even though it is actually the State where Hillary Clinton grew up. McCain will beat Romney by 9. Huckabee will get 14%.
Massachusetts - Clinton 52, Obama 47
The polls don't look good here for Obama, but the prospect that he will get blown out doesn't make much sense. He should keep it close. Romney should win his home state by 22 over McCain.
Minnesota Caucus - Clinton 50, Obama 49
The polls favor Clinton big, but with a caucus it is anybody's guess. I think Obama will surprise people here, and be very close. McCain should win by 14 over Huckabee, with Romney two points behind Huckabee.
Missouri - Obama 50, Clinton 49
For the Democrats, this should be a tight race. Even though Hillary leads in the polls, Obama is surging, and should win by a point. It is a three way horse race for the Republicans. My prediction is Huckabee takes it by one over McCain, with Romney two points behind McCain.
New Jersey - Clinton 52, Obama 47
Obama won't get crushed here, but he will lose. McCain should win easily, by 15 over Romney.
New York - Clinton 53, Obama 46
Obama is surging in New York, and should keep it close enough to avoid a disastrous loss. As for the Republicans, this is probably where McCain will distance himself from Romney and secure the nomination. McCain will win by 17 over Romney.
Oklahoma - Clinton 58, Obama 41
Oklahoma looks bad for Obama, and he'll need Edwards voters to come to his side to keep him from getting creamed. McCain will beat Huckabee by five, and Romney will be at 20%.
Tennessee - Clinton 50, Obama 49
Clinton has been polling well in Tennessee, but that doesn't mean she has it wrapped up. Obama should keep it close. As for the Republicans, it will be a three way race, but McCain will beat Huckabee by six, with Romney one point behind Huckabee.
States with lesser focus
Alaska Caucus
Few polls have been done in Alaska. I predict Obama to win by three and McCain to beat Romney by 1.
Delaware
Obama will snatch this one from Hillary's fingers, by about a point. McCain will win by one over Romney.
Idaho Caucus
Obama will win here by about three over Clinton. No Republican Caucus on this day.
Kansas Caucus
Kansas is uncertain, but I believe Clinton will win here by one over Obama. No Republican Caucus on this day.
Montana
Republicans will vote in this primary, but not Democrats. I predict Romney will win by 10 over McCain.
New Mexico Caucus
Only the Democrats vote in New Mexico. This should be a close race, with Obama winning by one over Clinton.
North Dakota Caucus
North Dakota is hard to gauge without any polls of note. However, I predict Obama to win by one. I predict McCain to beat Huckabee by two, with Romney two points behind Huckabee.
Utah
Hillary and Obama should have a close race here, with Clinton the winner by two points. Utah is the State that Romney was born to win. He will have over 60% of the vote.
West Virginia
Republicans will vote in this primary, but not Democrats. I predict McCain will win by 8 over Romney, with Huckabee one point behind Romney.
So what does this all mean?
After Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton will have won 12 states, and Obama 10. I predict Clinton will only win four states by more than five points, and only two states by more than 10 points. She will be ahead, but not by enough to secure victory. Louisiana, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington State are among the key states with primaries within the week after Super Tuesday. Texas and Ohio have their primaries on March 4th. It may take that long for the Democrats to finally choose a candidate. However, Obama will have his work cut out for him. McCain will win 14 states, with Romney winning four states and Huckabee winning three states. Romney will not benefit much from his convincing win in Maine this evening. McCain will be the nominee while Obama and Hillary fight it out for another month.
Anyway, at least this time, Virginia's vote on Feb. 12th is going to matter -- so let's make the most of it!
53-47 would be a close result in many states.
What this means, I am not 100% sure. My guess is that it is likely that the situation won't be that much clearer after Tuesday, other than the fact that both candidates have a lot more delegates. It is even possible that Obama will still be in the lead after Tuesday..
If Hillary loses California, and all else being equal, then I think she needs to start looking for a graceful way to exit.
We have been told the Hispanic vote in California was her firewall. When firewalls crumble, the proper response is to run like Hell.
I'd love your results, with maybe a closer CA
My Predictions:
AK - Barack by 8%
AL - Barack by 2%
AR - Hillary by 20%
AZ - Hillary by 10%
CA - Hillary by 7%
CO - Hillary by 2%
CT - Hillary by 3%
DE - Hillary by 10%
GA - Barack by 8%
ID - Barack by 6%
IL - Barack by 30%
KS - Hillary by 3%
MA - Hillary by 6%
MN - Hillary by 1%
MO - Hillary by 5%
ND - Barack by 3%
NJ - Hillary by 12%
NM - Hillary by 9%
NY - Hillary by 20%
OK - Hillary by 19%
TN - Hillary by 13%
UT - Hillary by 6%
Alabama: BHO by 6
Alaska: BHO by 8
Arizona: HRC by 6
Arkansas: HRC by 22
California: BHO by 2
Colorado: BHO by 12
Connecticut: 50-50
Delaware: HRC by 12
Georgia: BHO by 14
Idaho: BHO by 10 (he was even campaigning there today...)
Illinois: BHO by 20
Kansas: HRC by 4
Massachusetts: HRC by 2
Minnesota: HRC by 6
Missouri: BHO by 2
New Jersey: HRC by 4
New Mexico: BHO by 4
New York: HRC by 18
North Dakota: HRC by 8
Oklahoma: HRC by 14
Tennessee: HRC by 4
Utah: BHO by 8
Senator Clinton:
Large States - AZ, MA, MN, NJ, NY, TN
Small States - AR, DE, KS, ND, OK
Total: 11 States
Senator Obama:
Large States: CA, CO, GA, IL, MO
Small States: AL, AK, ID, NM, UT
Total: 10 States
But yeah, all but the obvious (IL, NY, AR) will be very close.
IF the polling is right (a big if in ever other primary thus far) -- the best read is that Clinton has a slight lead -- with this state tilting pretty close to a toss-up with the popular vote. The real interesting part will be how the support shapes up based on the delegate allocation.
Remember -- this was the only state on the slate of Super Tuesday races where Obama was actually in THIRD place going into this week. He was at just about 20% support when Edwards dropped out.
I hope your projections turn out along the lines of your guesses -- but even in New York -- I would be very (pleasantly) surprised if Clinton was under double-digits. A 6-7% margin would be a best case for Obama.
It sounds like he could actually win Connecticut -- although too close to call sounds right.
Tennessee -- Clinton has had a larger lead in polls -- there would need to be something fundamentally screwy with the pollsters sampling methodology for the race in order for it to play out as a 1% point race. Stranger things have happened this election season, but from what I understand there hasn't been nearly as much investment in field offices in the state.
The western caucus states look favorable for Obama -- it looks like his campaign has been making this his insurance policy for a few months now against a strong Clinton showing in NY and California on Super Tuesday.
It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out.