CNN: John McCain Wins Florida! UPDATE: Rudy to Endorse McCain
By: Lowell
Published On: 1/29/2008 8:29:16 PM
The Democratic Party, in its infinite wisdom, decided that the primary in Florida today doesn't award any delegates. Thus, nobody contested it and the outcome is, apparently, irrelevant. Whatever. On to February 5.
On the other side of the aisle, Florida really DOES matter. Most likely, this will be the end of Rudy GHOULiani and the de facto demise of Mike Huckster-bee. The key is whether Mitt-mentum pulls it out or if John McCain's lying nastiness rules the day. Ah, Republicans...how inspirational!
Please use this as an open thread to discuss the Republican results, and why the DNC decided that the Democratic primary results don't matter.
UPDATE 7:37 pm: With 3% of the votes counted, it's Romney in the lead with 45,345 votes (35.3%), followed by McCain at 40,062 (31.2%), Rudy at 21,110 (16.4%) and Huckabee at 15,641 (12.2%).
UPDATE 7:57 pm: With 15% of the votes in, it's McCain in the lead with 34%, followed by McCain at 31, Rudy at 17%, and Huckabee at 13%.
UPDATE 8:01 pm: Polls are CLOSED across Florida. With 19% of the vote in, it's McCain 34%, Romney 31%, Rudy 17%, Huck 13%.
UPDATE 8:14 pm: With 30% of the vote counted, it's McCain 34%, Romney 33%, Rudy 15% (the dream is dying!), and Huckster 14%. Obviously, this is neck and neck between McCain and Romney for first place. How many "tickets" out of Florida for the Republicans?
UPDATE 8:30 pm: With 35% of the vote counted, it's McCain 34%, Romney 32%, Rudy 16%, and Huckabee 13%.
UPDATE 8:50 pm: With 45% of the vote counted, it's McCain 35%, Romney 32%, Rudy 16%, and Huckabee 13%.
UPDATE 8:57 pm: In case you care, Hillary "won" the Florida primary that awards no delegates and that nobody was allowed to compete in. Yippee!! :)
UPDATE 9:02 pm: Big news: "Giuliani expected to endorse McCain, as early as Wednesday - in Los Angeles or Simi Valley." If McCain wins Florida tonight, I believe that will be "game, set, match" -- John McCain will be the Republican nominee in 2008.
UPDATE 9:09 pm: Huckabee's pledging to stay in the race, despite losing everywhere and having no money. Hoping for divine intervention, perhaps? Meanwhile, with 51% of the vote counted, it's McCain 35%, Romney 31%, Rudy 16%, Huckabee 13%.
UPDATE 9:16 pm: CNN calls Florida for John McCain. Ladies and gentlemen, you may all now congratulate the man who will lose to the Democratic nominee in November! :)
UPDATE 9:46 pm: With 72% of votes counted, it's McCain 36%, Romney 31%, Giuliani 15%, Huckabee 14%.
UPDATE Wednesday morning: With 99% of the votes counted, McCain wins with 36%, followed by Romney with 31%, Giuliani (who gets the award for most brilliant strategy of the year) with 15%, and Huckabee with 14%. In spite of all of Ron Paul's sound and fury (and money), he received just 3% yesterday, continuing his string of low-single-digit finishes.
Comments
Looking at the smaller counties (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:00:00 PM)
Edwards does really well in rural areas.
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/...
There is the count by county.
Snow Birds!!! (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:05:23 PM)
Clinton does well here with the snowbirds from the northeast.
Here is the cycle. People up north get REALLY old. Get grumpy. Shrink a bit. They decide to buy an RV and drive that gas guzzler down to Florida. They buy condos and trailers and drive up prices.
And in their final swawn dive before they die, the screw up the state of Florida for us people who have our entire lives ahead of us.
In my view, snowbirds should just vote absentee in their own states. You people are just passing through! Next stop - happy acres.
I'm joking - well maybe not ;-)
Please cover the democratic primary too!! (Demo08 - 1/29/2008 9:07:00 PM)
Hillary will win big, it's a HUGE story.
Funniest comment of the day! (Lowell - 1/29/2008 9:08:48 PM)
Thanks, that made me laugh. :)
just explain (Demo08 - 1/29/2008 9:17:29 PM)
how this was a good night for Obama??? Where was the bounce??
The largest state to vote yet has given Hillary a huge victory. Explain away.
Florida results for the Democrats (aznew - 1/29/2008 9:24:13 PM)
mean little, if anything, if you ask me.
We certainly agree on that! (Lowell - 1/29/2008 9:27:01 PM)
:)
On the other hand (Teddy - 1/29/2008 9:51:16 PM)
Wait until the Democratic Convention when they may well be coerced into giving credence to the Florida delegates after all.
Ha, no need for spin. (Lowell - 1/29/2008 9:26:20 PM)
According to MSNBC, via
Daily Kos:
...among the day-of voters, Obama was actually polling above Clinton, and that her lead in the actual votes was due to an overwhelming lead in early voters.
In other words, the SC victory and Kennedy endorsement totally shifted the entire situation. My prediction: Obama kicks serious butt on February 5.
Most of the people I work with voted last week (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:30:33 PM)
Lots of early voting here.
I don't argue (aznew - 1/29/2008 9:31:24 PM)
that the past week has damaged the Clinton campaign.
Aznew... (uva08 - 1/30/2008 12:13:57 AM)
Come to the light :-p Just kidding with you...
I think the news that Obama did well among today voters is a good sign. I do have to worry about another big state, California, where they also have early voting (I think?).
Good Morning uva (aznew - 1/30/2008 9:15:21 AM)
Well, my defense of Hillary has always been based on my perception that she, and President Clinton, are getting a raw deal from many progressives, and that Obama is getting a pass.
But I do consider myself a realist. Obviously, the way the South Carolina election played out was a huge lift for Obama in the media narrative. So, I'm not surprised to see his bump in the polls.
I actually think we will see California emerge as the state to watch on Super Tuesday, and not just because it is the biggest, although that is a big reason. Rather, the two most important constituencies for the Democrats -- African Americans and Latinos -- are considered by the CW to be on opposite sides. Whoever is our GE candidate will need support from these voters come November.
The huge story (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:09:34 PM)
Is how Hillary had her campaign events discuised as fund raisers down here, and had Bill Clinton down here, even though she pledged not to campaign down here at all.
I don't know about where you come from, but here in the south we call that cheating.
Did you see any Obama television ads down there? (aznew - 1/29/2008 9:18:30 PM)
Just asking.
Honestly (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:21:32 PM)
I haven't seen many ads at all with the exception of Republicans.
Hillary has been in the news alot though. Her "fund raising" had extensive local coverage.
Just curious (aznew - 1/29/2008 9:26:09 PM)
Where are you?
I was down there two weeks ago vising my dad in S. Florida, and while his local paper (Sun-Sentinel) has a lot of GOP coverage, it had little about the Democrats.
I'm in a different newspaper market (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:29:20 PM)
Central Florida. So we read the St. Petersberg Times, the Tampa Tribune, and the Orlando Sentinal. Also the Lakeland Ledger ;-) (Little paper in my little city)
I am physically located almost directly between Orlando and Tampa off of I-4 in Lakeland. We are a few miles closer to Tampa than Orlando.
Did you see the Obama campaign? (MikeSizemore - 1/29/2008 9:24:27 PM)
Or Obama himself down there?
The last candidate I personally saw (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:26:32 PM)
Was John Edwards. That was before they pledged not to campaign here. I live in Polk county and work in Hillsboro county - so any stops they made outside of this area (I-4 corridor) I probably won't know about.
It's a big state.
Foreclosure rate (Teddy - 1/29/2008 11:36:01 PM)
is really high in Hillsboro County, indeed throughout Florida. Correct? Comments--- how do you think this will enter into the election?
It's on the mind of people here (relawson - 1/29/2008 11:40:27 PM)
I'm not sure which way it will swing. Florida is a tricky state. I would call us fickle.
Will easily be overshadowed (DanG - 1/29/2008 9:10:35 PM)
By the GOP. Hillary herself has said that this is a race for delegates. And Florida has how many again?
Zero. (Lowell - 1/29/2008 9:13:41 PM)
Also known as "nada," "zilch," and "none." All the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida; sadly, the entire thing turned into a total cluster-you-know-what...
Exactly (DanG - 1/29/2008 9:17:35 PM)
That's why Florida and Michigan can't be count. For starters, in Michigan, Obama and Edwards weren't even on the ballot. Tell me, how is that fair?
And in Florida, candidates weren't even allowed to visit. Unless, of course, you show a total disdain for the rules. Then you can do what you want.
Unless either Obama or Clinton has the nomination locked up BEFORE the convention, or unless Edwards pledges enough delegates to either campaign allowing them the win, Florida and Michigan will not be counted.
I still say the GOP had a better plan. Cut the delegate count in half, and let Obama, Edwards, and Clinton campaign there.
It's only a race for delegates (Chris Guy - 1/29/2008 10:31:18 PM)
when she doesn't win more than Obama or Edwards.
OK, I'm going to make a prediction here (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:13:17 PM)
I'm going to say Edwards picks up 4-5% as they start counting rural counties. Right now he is at 15% - so I'm saying he makes it up to 19 or 20%.
And Hillary will drop down to about 45%.
Hillary is here in Florida (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:33:06 PM)
Senator Bill Nelson is with her. I'll remember that.
She's there for pure spin (Lowell - 1/29/2008 9:34:02 PM)
I'll remember THAT!
But her strategy is working (Barbara - 1/29/2008 9:47:47 PM)
Calculated, but working nonetheless. Her picture takes up half the screen on CNN with a big check mark next to her name as the winner. I'm sure many don't realize the vote doesn't count. It still makes the headlines. And CNN just cut to her 'victory speach'.
Good point. (aznew - 1/29/2008 9:50:56 PM)
Given all the sh*t from last week, I just wish she left it alone.
Even I think this is bizzare. (aznew - 1/29/2008 9:35:05 PM)
What if this is a contested election (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:35:53 PM)
Will Hillary demand the Florida delegates?
Howard Dean really F'd up. He has put the party in one hell of a pickle. This race is going to come down to the wire, and we are going to have big problems if it comes down to Florida delegates.
Why don't the numbers match? (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:41:09 PM)
Anyone have any clue as to why the numbers on the Department of State website don't even come close to matching the numbers live on TV?
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/...
Correction (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:41:55 PM)
FLORIDA Department of State. I thought we were the only one ;-)
Absentee not counted on the (emmasnacker - 1/29/2008 10:14:55 PM)
State site!
Biggest Loser (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:43:28 PM)
Who will it be - Romney or McCain?
Hillary Just Said (relawson - 1/29/2008 9:45:52 PM)
She is going to make sure our delegates are seated. Funny. Now we count.
Dumb. This is a party, not a candidate issue (aznew - 1/29/2008 9:47:47 PM)
But as Chris Matthews said a little while ago, you make do with what you got, or something like that. I don't listen too closely to him.
I think the expression is (spotter - 1/29/2008 9:58:14 PM)
love the one you're with.
Nice. If she wins, then (Lowell - 1/29/2008 9:51:28 PM)
she'll fight for every vote to be counted. How principled!
The more I see, the (emmasnacker - 1/29/2008 10:23:13 PM)
more I dislike. If she's the nominee, I may not just have to hold my nose. I might have to cut that sucker off my face.
Is that like literally cutting (Lowell - 1/29/2008 10:24:34 PM)
your nose to spite your face? Ha.
I guess. Maybe i'll just plug it (emmasnacker - 1/29/2008 10:32:19 PM)
with epoxy. Flesh colored. I'd hate to mutilate myself for HRC.
Time's The Page is reporting that (aznew - 1/29/2008 10:00:56 PM)
Giuliani has cut a deal to endose McCain, perhaps as early as tomorrow in California.
http://thepage.time.com/2008/0...
Yeah, that's huge news. (Lowell - 1/29/2008 10:04:31 PM)
I updated the diary to reflect that. If McCain wins Florida and Rudy endorses him, it's "game, set, match" for McCain as the Republican presidential nominee in 2008. What an amazing comeback for McCain after being written off for dead last summer and fall!
I wonder what the deal was. (Lowell - 1/29/2008 10:06:04 PM)
MSNBC reporting (aznew - 1/29/2008 10:10:45 PM)
that Giuiiani staff not commenting. They are saying to listen to what Giuliani says tonight.
Fineman now reporting that there are high level talks, but this guys sources have led him astray in the past. He's a tool.
Huge comeback (relawson - 1/29/2008 10:09:49 PM)
He had to sell the bus as I understand it. Lieberman already has his heart set on VP I'll bet. Oh, so sad for him. ;-)
do not count out a Huckabee endorsement (Alter of Freedom - 1/29/2008 10:40:17 PM)
and if Huckabee endorses Romney though unlikely could also throw a little twist into things
CNN projects McCain (relawson - 1/29/2008 10:12:52 PM)
McCain wins the Senior Vote (relawson - 1/29/2008 10:16:56 PM)
Big surprise there ;-) He is empowering the snowbirds.
Mitt Romney just said (spotter - 1/29/2008 10:36:07 PM)
our jobs are under attack from countries like Asia and India.
Countries like Asia?
and the Republicans only saving grace?????? (Alter of Freedom - 1/29/2008 10:46:07 PM)
Well if this plays out the only saving grace for Republicans in the Fall is of course Hillary Rodham Clinton. Independents of like mind as myself now will dred the day we have to vote, the two folks on the planet I just cannot vote for most likely will be squaring off if the major media outlets have there way. Though it would probably help Clinton, maybe Ron Paul or Bloomberg can shake it up with an independent run. Clinton, no thanks. McCain is even worse. Would have liked to see an Obama v. Romney contest where we indpendents would actually be challenged, for once, with casting our votes but now it appears we are left with Dumb and Dumber!!!!
I wonder what deal Rudy cut with McCain (Lowell - 1/29/2008 10:59:44 PM)
What, that if McCain's elected president, he'll pardon Rudy for his crimes? Ha.
Last post for the night - a final thought (aznew - 1/29/2008 11:02:35 PM)
Giuliani endorsement of McCain is confirmed.
I can't begin to imagine what John McCain endured as a POW. That alone makes him worthy of respect.
That said, as a political leader, I really cannot stand the guy, and despite this straight talk crock, I think he is as phony as the proverbial three-dollar bill..
He is going to be very tough to beat (relawson - 1/29/2008 11:06:58 PM)
Frankly, I'm not sure it can be done. I like Obama, but can he beat McCain?
I'm certain Hillary won't beat him. She will energize the Republican base to go out and vote.
You know how I feel about Edwards, but I can read polls as well as anyone else.
McCain can be beaten (Lowell - 1/29/2008 11:10:39 PM)
by Obama, in part because Democrats have a strong generic advantage, in part because Americans badly want change, and in part because Bush will still be in the White House on election day -- a millstone around McCain's neck.
relawson (aznew - 1/29/2008 11:14:51 PM)
I could not disagree more.
It just treats the presidential election as a popularity contest. But whether the Democratic nominee is Clinton, Obama or even Lowell, McCain's platform is simply at odds with the vast majority of Americans, at least according to polls.
Anyway, it is too early to know what the heck is going to happen.
And for all the folks here who point to Hillary Clinton's negatives as a bar to her election, I'll just point out that when she ran for the Senate in 2000, she had very high negatives in upstate NY. (For those of you not familiar with upstate NY, it is just like central and Southside VA, but colder, and the people talk funny). In 2006, she carried a big majority.
Yes, she has negatives, but she has also shown an ability to overcome them.
Now, if she can only get the people in her own party to vote for her ...
What polls? (relawson - 1/29/2008 11:18:57 PM)
"McCain's platform is simply at odds with the vast majority of Americans, at least according to polls. "
See, for example, these pages (aznew - 1/29/2008 11:26:49 PM)
from Pollster.com on public attitude toward the war:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...
Take a look at this page about public attiitudes toward the health care crisis:
http://www.americanprogress.or...
Also, assuming the economy sucks as bad as it is going to suck in November (or at least it will still feel pretty bad then), it will hurt the incumbent party.
Also, President Bush's public approval rating is currently at 34%.
I like our chances with a McCain/Obama race (Will Write For Food - 1/29/2008 11:39:31 PM)
Talk about the future versus the past! And it'll be the first time since 1960 a sitting senator will be elected president.
Bush - McCain - Endless Wars (norman swingvoter - 1/30/2008 12:05:09 AM)
Here is a theme right out of McCain's own mouth. McCain has now started talking about other wars to follow. I really think he is becoming as delusional as bush.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...