Did you see this article?  I've bolded the parts I think are particularly interesting...

The board voted to send a letter, over the signature of board Chairman Gerald E. Connolly (D), to Federal Transit Administration chief James S. Simpson exhorting the agency to reappraise its finding that high costs and managerial issues will likely make the project ineligible for $900 million in federal funds.

[...]

Connolly pushed for the letter, which was revised late yesterday to soften its tone after news of the cooling off period surfaced. The board's vote was 6-3-1, with Supervisor Linda Q. Smyth (D-Providence) abstaining. Last year, the board held an 8-2 majority in support of the extension.

Herrity and Foust each raised objections to continuing the quest for the airport link as currently designed. Herrity offered a substitute motion calling for a new study of "bus rapid transit" -- a system of buses with its own right-of-way -- as an alternative to rail. He also asked County Executive Anthony H. Griffin for an analysis of possible cost overruns that could be generated by the current rail plan.

[...]

Connolly assailed Herrity's motion, which was supported by Supervisor Michael R. Frey (R-Sully). The chairman dismissed as "a red herring" the contention that bus rapid transit was never considered and said it was "a scare tactic" to suggest that taxpayers were on the hook for cost overruns.

[..]

"I've read the contract, and I'm concerned by it," said Foust, a construction lawyer who in November unseated Joan M. DuBois (R), a supporter of the project as currently designed.

An exasperated Connolly said he wondered "what world" Foust was living on. The board has spent "buckets of blood" trying to place a tunnel in Tyson, he said, but failed. The fight now, he said, is to get any kind of rail link to Dulles.

All I have to say to this is:  GO JOHN FOUST!!!

for moving to explore, or even re-explore, alternative solutions.  I guess Connolly has made us his mind, so that's that - no other options are ever to be considered.

As for Smyth, huh?  She didn't get elected just so she could chicken out.  I wonder who she's rooting for on Sunday - the New England Giants?

She's rooting for the New York Patriots, dontcha know?  LOL

A cab can get me there in 30-40 minutes.  When I go to Tysons I'm shopping which means I'm hauling back stuff in my car.  If I worked in Tyson's I'd probably look into it.  

I live in Tysons, and commute out in the morning (opposite to normal traffic).

Would I use it?  One of the new stations would be walking distance from home, so it would almost certainly be yes, at least to some degree, but it would probably be on weekends and not for trying to get to work.

Normal work is to the Fair Lakes area, so there really no good option there for me.   I ride my bicycle to work some days, which seems like the best alternative to driving.

number of people are in a similar position.  That's one of the main reasons I asked the question.  They either live OR work in Tysons but the other side of their commute is not near the train.  So despite their best intentions, they wouldn't use it for daily commuting and therefore the train would not drastically help the traffic gridlock situation.

Over the long term, the dynamics will change as people specifically move near the Dulles train stations for commuting purposes.  Which would improve the "pro" side of the argument.  

The flip side is, that despite this growth around the train stations I think you'll find that only a portion of the new residents actually take the train, especially in the further 'burbs.  Meaning we add more train people as well as more car people into the mix, therefore not improving the traffic situation in a meaningful way despite increases in train usage.  

When I went to the Tysons Land Use Task Force presentation last night, I ran into a fellow I know (not on the task force - the two of us were just sitting way in the back), who said that of the 900 million that the Feds were supposed to supply, that all but 250 million were some sort of loans or some such.  Thus the Feds were really only anteing up about 250M or so.

Does this make any sense to anyone, and is that an accurate statement?

Jim Bacon quoting the FTA says it's like $900M in new money and $580 in loans.

Summarized Simpson: "The sheer number and magnitude of the current Project's technical, financial and institutional risks and uncertainties are unprecedented for a candidate New Starts project -- particularly one seeking nearly $1.5 billion in Federal participation (i.e. $900 million in New Starts funds and $580.4 million in a loan....)" - Bacon's Rebellion

First I would have to get to an orange line station by walking a fair distance. I like using the bus, but it runs so infrequently as to be almost useless. Then I would go to East Falls Church (not on the way to Tysons from where I live) where I would have to transfer to the Silver line.

Even with really bad traffic, driving would be much faster and probably cheaper (I have a pretty economical car).

I live in Rosslyn and the thought of having another line would appeal to me (albeit they would have to protect against choking that artery during rush hour).

Further, there's really no convenient way for me to get to Dulles.  I could drive, but parking's obnoxiously expensive.  Cabs - same thing.  Getting a friend to drive is nice, but it's very inconvenient both in the length of the trip as well as what to do during work days.

To those so opposed to this, let's throw Tyson's out of the mix for a moment.  Why are you against a Metro option out to Dulles?  The bus system (Washington Flyer from WFC and the bus from Rosslyn) has proven not to work for us.  What do you recommend younger people in the area who can't / shouldn't have to pay the extra $50 or so to get to the airport?  Forcing us to resign ourselves to the terrible bus system seems a bit unfair.  There could at least be a line out of one  or two stations that went directly to Dulles, even if it didn't have stops.  Just something.

Most people I know who are against the current plan oppose it because it is a poor implementation. Its primary purpose is to increase land values for a few politically well connected landowners rather than provide the best mass transit system for Tysons and the Dulles corridor.

I favor a backbone down the Dulles corridor that doesn't detour through Tysons coupled with a robust dedicated right-of-way circulator system that serves all of Tysons. The current proposal doesn't come close to providing coverage to all 1700 acres of the Tysons Urban Center.

Clark Tyler, chair of the Tysons Task Force, has been telling audiences for quite a while that the heavy rail detour through Tysons won't work without a dedicated right-of-way circulator, precisely for the reason I stated above.

Such an approach would provide superior service to the Dulles corridor, the airport, as well as Tysons.

The way I see it is that they aim to try and replicate the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor as best they can in the Tysons area.

If the rail just went down the access road, you basically have zero chance of this ever happening.   Running it through Tysons and then encouraging high-density mixed-use development adjacent to the corridor is what you would need to do if you like what you see in R-B.

Geometrically, the R-B corridor is linear whereas Tysons is a Triangle.

R-B is 1023 acres and has five metro stations, yielding 205 acres/station on the average.  On the other hand, Tysons is 1700 acres yet will have only four stations.  That equates to 425 acres/station.

Most of R-B is within 1/4 mile of a station but most of Tysons is not.

And as you point out below, when they first opened up the Orange line through Rosslyn-Ballston, there wasn't a lot of density near the stations. Therefore they could (and did) plan well for density. Tysons already has density and much of it is not within walking distance of a proposed station.

Several years ago, the Fairfax County Board approved a high density development in Tysons that is 3/4 miles from the nearest proposed heavy rail station. And don't forget the Gannett/USA Today headquarters that is also 3/4 mile or so from a station.

Such areas must be more conveniently serviced by dedicated right-of-way mass transit than the current plan provides. That's what CLark Tyler is accurately pointing out

Once you have dedicated right-of-way mass transit throughout Tysons, why go to the incredible expense of putting four heavy rail stations there?

Also, I'd point out that Tysons is in no way, shape or form analogous to King Street.  I've heard that comparison made numerous times and I've never understood why; it's complete apples and oranges.

By itself a circulator doesn't solve much - it needs to be connected to the rest of the world in a fairly convenient fashion.  Is your argument that the heavy rail can follow the toll road, and then have the circulator stop at the Metro stops there?  That would force more or less everyone to make a connection, where if you have heavy rail running through Tysons then at least some people would have direct service.

The problem as you point out is that there is already a lot of density in Tysons, and we can't undo that.  My understanding is that to make the plan work they would offer an even higher density adjacent to the transit corridor.  In 20 years the density in the areas far from the stations will seem small by comparison.  That's my understanding of what they are talking about, anyways.

Tysons isn't dense like R-B is dense. Tysons has a lot of wasted space and surface parking within spitting distance of the proposed lines. Those parts of Tysons can be redeveloped. In other words: Tysons isn't a closed box, and that's the point. We're not talking about a rail line to serve only the Tysons that we have now. We're talking about a rail line to serve the Tysons of 10, 20, 30, or more years from now. After developers have started cutting through the superblocks around Routes 7 and 123 and tearing down the parking garages and throwing up four buildings where there used to be one. At the end of the day--decades from now--you're going to have a much bigger, much denser suburban downtown than either R or B. And yes, it will probably need a circulator for movement within Tysons. But that doesn't mean that a rail line won't be absolutely valuable for bringing in foot traffic from all over the DC area.

getting to Dulles.  I agree that it's more difficult and more expensive than it needs to be.

One solution would be a train from the city all the way out to the airport.  It's not perfect, but would certainly help out a lot of people.  And, quite frankly, it is an embarrassment that our nation's capitol doesn't have a dedicated train from it's major airport into the city.

However, an expensive rail system to address that problem is not the best use of money.  Greater investment and effort toward the bus system would make it much more usable.  You're right that the bus system doesn't work too well, but that doesn't mean it can't work well - we just need to improve it.  And that is much less costly than building rail.

I live in Ballston and my office is a 15 minute walk from the proposed Wiehle Ave station. I'd use it every day. I've wondered if this is a fact I should disclose in my posts on the Silver Line, but let's be honest -- in today's transient job market and at the rate this thing is going, the odds of me still being in the same job in a decade or however long it takes to build this thing are slim to none.

I'd definitely take it to Dulles Airport every time I had to go there. Right now the only options are to go into Rosslyn and take the bus, which is cheap ($3) but a schlep to go east to Rosslyn to go west to Dulles, or go out to West Falls Church and take the Washington Flyer bus, which is more convenient but more expensive (like $16 roundtrip).

And it would be nice to have the option to go to Tysons Corner for shopping. Right now I wouldn't brave that traffic for anything.

While I am hugely in favor of public transportation, and would love to take a bus or train to work and dance every day...  none of the proposed lines for "rail to Dulles" helps me.

I live off US-50 and that is the line of bus/tram/rail I'd like to see added.
There are days where I head in to Dulles, then could use the line to Tysons, but then need to head back to 50 and 15 again, so 2 legs of the triangle are still not available in public transit.

If I move, all bets are off.

which is like, uh, once or twice a year max?  I'd use it when I go shopping at Tysons, which I never do now but might actually consider once in a blue moon if Metro went there.  And that's about it for me.  The problem is, what would the "Silver Line" do to my much more frequent usage of the Orange and Blue lines?  That's part of what I'm worried about, besides all the other issues (Bechtel, no-bid, secrecy, smart growth in Tysons, etc., etc.).

I don't think it will affect Blue and Orange service as much as people think it will. First of all, anyone who currently takes an Orange train from Falls Church to downtown or to Capitol Hill will be able to take a Silver train instead. Just grab the first one that comes. Second of all, Metro will obviously have to reroute most Blue trains across the Fenwick Bridge. They've been talking about doing that for years anyway. So Rosslyn would basically be served only by the Orange and Silver lines, with the occasional Arlington Cemetery train during daylight hours.

I'd take Horace Greeley's advice to heart and look at extending along I-66 before going to Dulles (or more correctly, Wiehle Ave).

Extend the Orange Line to Centreville or Manassas.  Have you ever noticed that there are only three stations outside the Beltway in Virginia (and all just barely outside the beltway)--Vienna, Franconia/Springfield, and Huntington.  By comparison, there are 9 Maryland stations outside the Beltway, with the Red Line extending all the way to Shady Grove.  Imagine the number of cars you could take off the road by extending West on the I-66 right of way.  No tunnels.  No expensive aerial option, and a clear-cut need.

I live in South Arlington. To get to Dulles, I would absolutely use it. Absolutely 100%. I routinely pay more to fly out of National for the simple fact that getting to Dulles is an unbelievable pain. Just getting to the access road can be a forty minute nightmare at certain times of the day. Even if it takes an hour of Metro riding, a cheap (read: not a cab) and reliable (read: not Metrobus) ride to the airport pretty much guarantees that I would use it.

I wouldn't take it to Tysons. But I never go to Tysons anyway. I don't work there, and when I want to shop, I go to Pentagon City. So the Tysons extension isn't really for me. But anyone can see what Metrorail has done for Ballston and Clarendon and Rosslyn and Pentagon / Crystal Cities, so I understand the lust for Tysons rail. If I worked in Tysons, I would certainly take it. And that's sort of the point, isn't it?

I also don't think that the Silver Line has to be underground through Tysons. That whole argument is a bit of a distraction, IMHO. Silver Spring, King Street, and New York Avenue are all above ground stations, and they are all perfectly accessible by foot and provide good access to surrounding and future developments. Silver Spring especially.

When they first opened up the Orange line through Rosslyn-Ballston, there wasn't a lot of density near the stations, so usage wasn't all that high.  But as the years go by, taller buildings and higher density have been built along the corridor, which makes it possible for people to live a car-free life.  It took several decades for things to reach this point however.

The Tysons area is sort of the same way.  As things are today, you don't have the same type of walkable communities adjacent to the transit corridor, so initially the ridership might not be all that great.  But the plan is that as time goes on, higher density would be built along the corridor - a proper mix if residential and commercial, which would give you the walkable communities and fewer cars.

At the Tysons Land Use Task Force meetings they talk a lot about the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor, what a success it has been, and how they want to emulate that as best they can.  Thus it seems unfair, and perhaps a somewhat irrelevant question as to how many people would ride the thing the day that Metro opens.   Fairer questions would have to do with whether the plans that they are thinking of will achieve that goal or not in however many years it would take to build out the region according to the plan.

In a couple of areas, but mainly in terms of an overall automobile ownership and vehicle miles traveled.

Great post, Eric. And your questions about the "need" for the Dulles rail also seems to beg the question, "is there a public transit plan at all for Northern Virginia?"

We may be obsessing on a single project while losing sight of the bigger picture.

To paraphrase your question, we probably should be asking the question, "what must happen for me to take public transportation."

Eric, maybe you can start a thread with this question to see if we can find what is missing that is preventing most of us from taking public transportation.

For example what mode is the best bang-for-the buck

Heavy Rail vs Light Rail vs VRE vs Bus vs Road

A brief list of factors

1.  analyzing the actual commuting patterns (both amount and distance) for projected usage

2.  analyzing the current level of service (this is where Dulles falls apart IMHO the commute from Reston to Tysons or Rosslyn to Tysons is much much better than many other commutes out there I-66, 95-I-395 etc...)

3.  analyzing the population being served  (For whatever reason certain income levels prefer certain transit options, some populations have a majority of 9-5 workers while others might have a greater need for weekend or evening service)

4.  analyzing the net effect on existing service (So for the silver line what impact would this have on the blue and orange lines and where would the additional maintanence monies come from)

Why would someone take public transportation there are some of you that love the environment enough but for the rest of us :-p

It must be

Faster
Cheaper
and/or more reliable

than driving

The transit system does me very little good since the closest stop is a mile away from my house.

The metro to Dulles will not be used primarily by commuters.  Dulles in an international airport that is expanding to include another runway and much more traffic.  Washington is the nation's capital and a major destination.  We need transportation other than the Washington Flyer cabs and the buses.  Consider how many major airports have trains to take passengers between the city and the airport.  Having to wait for a cab or bus to go into Washington or out to Dulles is a pain in the a**.

BTW:  If I were going into the District, I would certainly go out to Dulles to take the metro.  In the past I've driven to Vienna, Dun Loring, West Falls, then East Falls in search of a parking space, to no avail.  In the end, I've driven into the District and paid big bucks to park in a garage.  Yes, I would certainly park at Dulles and take the metro into DC.  

The silver line will be used more by commuters

I would also argue most business travelers immediately get car rentals and if not how likely is the destination the traveler is going to actually serviced by metro  

Both literally and figuratively.  Tysons is half a mile from my house.  Currently West Falls Church, about 4 miles away, is the nearest station.  Not only do I want a station closer to my house, but I look forward to be able to take trips from Dulles Airport without having to take an expensive cab or parking my car there.

I think a lot of people think of this as too much of a "Tysons" deal.  Remember that it's rail to DULLES - Washington is the only capital in the Developed World without rail to its International Airport.

Given that you live approximately 1/2 mile from Tysons, how often do you walk to the mall or other stores/restaurants/etc in the area?  How about your neighbors?  

I don't ask this to pick on you, I'm just trying to gauge how people who live close - within the range that the train would serve - really deal with the area today.  And sort of getting to ericy's point/question about whether Tysons could transform over time.

which asks: would Metro to the Dulles area, and the Reston-Route 28 employment corridor in general be used by all those IT (and other) workers who live out in the upper Montgomery County area and currently drive down I-70, across the bridge, and out to their jobs in a ridiculous V-shaped drive which ends up 15 miles or less from their homes as the crow flies?  

One of the arguments for another vehicle bridge over the Potomac up around White's Ferry is to create a "Tech Corridor" for commuters, maybe part of a Western By-pass or Outer Beltway.  Would these commuters be able to get on the Metro in Maryland, ride down to Metro Central and transfer to Orange-Silver and get to their jobs without using their cars? Believe it or not, this demographic is a not insignificant part of the congestion on our roads.

Another point: in the endless rivalry between Maryland with its Baltimore-Washington Airport and Virginia with its Dulles, Maryland has always successfully fought  anything which improves access to Dulles.