The South Carolina Democratic primary is being held today from 7 am to 7 pm. For what it's worth, the latest Zogby poll has Barack Obama with a 15-point lead over Hillary Clinton (41%-26%), with John Edwards in third place at 19%. According to John Zogby:
Obama leads big among moderates and liberals and among all age groups. He is back over 60% support among blacks, while Clinton and Edwards are tied among whites. Clinton returned to the state after her numbers here started to slip and Edwards started to gain...Overall, Obama's lead is solid as Election Day dawns, but voters here have been fluid in their support.
"Fluid" is the word. We'll see what the voters have to say.
UPDATE: American Research Group has it much closer, with Obama at 39%, Clinton at 36%, and Edwards at 22%. We'll see.
UPDATE 2:03 pm: Rasmussen just came out with its final SC poll. Obama's at 43%, Clinton at 28%, Edwards at 17%.
UPDATE 5:45 pm: Chris Cillizza reports:
There were early indications of a heavy turnout in the Palmetto State, especially in black precincts where Obama, the first African-American with a serious chance of winning the nomination, expects to win easily. Several black precincts near Columbia, the state capital, reported hitting 25 percent of all registered voters by midday, according to state party officials.
UPDATE 7:03 pm: Well, that didn't take long: CNN Calls it for Obama. MSNBC joins in. This must be a blowout. Fired up -- GO OBAMA!!!
UPDATE 7:29 pm: Hat tip to Daily Kos -- "exit polls suggest that Obama carries South Carolina by some 30 points." Also, " CNN calling it an 'intense battle' for second place, and not yet projecting a second place finisher."
UPDATE 7:41 pm: Networks are calling second place for Clinton, third for Edwards.
UPDATE 7:47 pm: CNN and MSNBC are projecting that John Edwards will finish third.
UPDATE 8:13 pm: With 25% of the votes counted, it's Obama with 54%, Clinton with 27%, Edwards with 19%.
UPDATE 8:32 pm: With 54% of the vote in, it's Obama 55%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 18%. Yes, a 28-point lead for Obama!
UPDATE 8:44 pm: With 73% reporting, it's Obama 54%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 19%.
UPDATE 8:53 pm: With 85% reporting, it's Obama 54%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 19%. Also, I count 421,494 votes cast so far. Wow!
UPDATE 9:13 pm: With 95% reporting, it's Obama 55%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 19%. Over 500,000 votes cast!
UPDATE 9:30 pm: With 98% reporting, it's 55% Obama, 27% Clinton, 18% Edwards. I count 516,000 votes cast. I believe that about 445,000 Republicans voted int he SC primary last Saturday.
The reason seems to be that Edwards gained on her and was close to tieing her for second place.
Obama's dropped, Hillary stayed close to the same, BUT Edwards took away some of Obama's with his "Grown Up" campaign after the Debate, and was closing in on second place.
Former President Bill Clinton said he might have gone too far in attacking Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton said on Friday, adding that both Democratic presidential campaigns should focus on issues."He said several times yesterday that maybe he got a little bit carried away," Hillary Clinton said on CBS' "Early Show."
Uh, yeah, I'd say that injecting RACE into the Democratic primary contest counts as "a little bit carried away."
Meanwhile, here's Colbert King on "Billary's Adventures in Primaryland." And here's Bob Herbert with some "Questions for the Clintons."
Whatever happened I think Bill lost some influence in the party because of his actions. When the elders have to scold you you have dropped a notch.
Unscientific too as well, of course.
Something strange happened the other day. All these different people -- friends, co-workers, relatives, people on a liberal e-mail list I read -- kept saying the same thing: They've suddenly developed a disdain for Bill and Hillary Clinton. Maybe this is just a coincidence, but I think we've reached an irrevocable turning point in liberal opinion of the Clintons.
It goes on: http://www.latimes.com/news/op...
Good that the Dems have begun to sustain self criticism - the beginning of growth and perhaps awakening, but maybe too little to late.
King nailed my feelings exactly.
Also, reading about Billary's botched attempt at health care reform -- the imperiousness, the heavy handedness, the arrogance -- proved to me again why I am sick of their game.
The plan was for her to leave after the Sunday debate for California and to let Bill handle the campaigning in South Carolina until she got back at the end of the week.
Edwards movement in the polls may have had some impact on the Clinton campaigns decision to use some negative robo-polling the past couple days, but it doesn't appear to have had any impact on the campaigns scheduling.
I normally wouldn't do that but after this behavior!
Consider this: What if we go through the Florida primary and Super Tuesday and the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remains as tight as it's been? For the primaries, Democrats have the same rules in every state: delegates are awarded in proportion to the vote - meaning no winner-take-all. If Clinton and Obama continue to split the vote in many states, it's possible we could get to late spring or early summer and neither candidate would have enough delegates to secure the nomination.And that's assuming they get that far without destroying each other with their increasingly nasty bickering. There just might be an opening for someone else to step in and unify the party. Oh, you know, like say maybe Al Gore.
Thoughts?
Even though neither of them wants it, a Clinton/Obama ticket might be a necessity if things get that bad.
Also, see What Sort Of Damage Have The Clintons Done?
MSNBC is rolling out some of their exit poll numbers. They asked voters if Senator Obama and Senator Clinton were unfair in their attacks on their opponent. 56% said Obama was unfair, 70% said Clinton was unfair. Looks like Obama's "she'll do or say anything to win" meme is winning the day. Perhaps more significantly, a full 75% of black voters feel Clinton was unfair to Obama.There is a larger question here about the fallout from the South Carolina Obama-Clinton scuffle nationally. To the extent that the Clintons are perceived to have gone too far, did they cross a line; did they reach point of no return? Ben Smith brings us an interesting observation from Jonathan Chait in The LA Times:
Whoops!
Obama Backers Drop Hints About Edwards"Illinois Democrats close to Sen. Barack Obama are quietly passing the word that John Edwards will be named attorney general in an Obama administration," according to Robert Novak.
The appointment of Edwards "would please not only the union leaders supporting him for president but organized labor in general. The unions relish the prospect of an unequivocal labor partisan as the nation's top legal officer."
"In public debates, Obama and Edwards often seem to bond together in alliance against front-running Sen. Hillary Clinton. While running a poor third, Edwards could collect a substantial bag of delegates under the Democratic Party's proportional representation. Edwards then could try to turn his delegates over to Obama in the still unlikely event of a deadlocked Democratic National Convention."
The Dream Ticket is OBAMA & WEBB in 2008. .... John Edwards would make a fine Attorney General ...
Be there , aloha....
I can only imagine the howls that would erupt were Hillary Clinton's name to be substituted for Obama's in the politicalwire.com article above.
If Edwards drops out tonight, I'm going to be a strong Obama supporter. I have a war dialer - you guys put up a poll here and let me know if I should use it or not ;-) After Hillary's attack on Edwards today with those calls I would put my dialer to work for free. I now have an axe to grind with her dirty politics.