Did Raising Kaine make a difference in the recent Virginia elections? More broadly, did the growing Democratic and Progressive blogosphere make a difference in helping Democratic candidates in Virginia this year? Obviously, this is going to be excruciatingly difficult to determine with any degree of precision, given that there are multiple variables at work here. It's not like you can go back and do a regression analysis on this one election (too small a sample size, not easily quantifiable) or run a controlled experiment where you re-do the election WITHOUT the Raising Kaine and the rest of the Democratic blogosphere working away. Still, I would go out on a bit of limb and highlight a few points that indicate a possible impact of Raising Kaine and the rest of the Virginia Democratic blogosphere (first and foremost, by the way, is Waldo Jaquith's blog, no doubt):Tim Kaine didn't just win, he won by a WIDER MARGIN than Mark Warner did in 2001 (5.73 percentage points for Kaine vs. 5.13 percentage points for Warner).
What could have caused this? Was Tim Kaine actually a more appealing candidate in 2005 than Mark Warner was in 2001? I find that EXTREMELY difficult to believe, given that Kaine started off with the handicap of low name recognition AND a perception by many that he was a dreaded "liberal."
Was Jerry Kilgore a LESS appealing candidate than Mark Earley in 2001? Perhaps, although Mark Earley didn't run a particularly memorable, inspiring, or exciting campaign either.
Could it have been money? Mark Earley was outspent by nearly $9 million in 2001; Tim Kaine was outspent by over $2 million in 2005. In other words, Mark Earley was outspent and lost. Tim Kaine was outspent and won.
Were state and national trends more to the Democrat's favor this time around? That DEFINITELY appears to have been the case at the national level, given the fact that November 2001 was just a few weeks after 9/11, when President Bush's approval rating was around 90%. At the state level, however, Governor Gilmore's popularity was plummeting, along with the state's financial situation. So, it's not clear that, on balance, the overall political environment was more favorable to Virginia Democrats in 2005 than it was in 2001. Also, I would point out that Dems only picked up 1 seat in the House of Delegates, not exactly a sea change in the "blue" direction.
Bottom line: It's very possible, even probable, that the Democratic and Progressive blogosphere made a difference in helping "raise Kaine" and defeat Kilgore this year. But who knows for sure?
2) Leslie Byrne - a liberal Democrat by almost any standard -- lost by only 1.15 percentage points to conservative Republican Bill Bolling in a "red" state. That's not bad at all, especially considering that she was outspent by $1.4 million - a more than 2:1 margin!
How did Leslie Byrne do so well, considering the huge financial advantage to her opponent? Perhaps she simply ran a great campaign, and Bill Bolling an awful one. But I doubt that was the case, at least from the people I've talked to. My guess is that some other factors were at work here. Perhaps the fact that Byrne had several Virginia Democratic blogs absolutely POUNDING on Bill "Gutter" Bolling - and promoting her -- for months? Is it possible that had something to do with the close margin, far closer than almost any analyst had expected?
Bottom line: My guess is that the Virginia Democratic/Progressive blogosphere helped Leslie Byrne almost defeat Bill Bolling. Again, the relevant question is, to what extent?
3) Creigh Deeds is currently within 322 votes of "Taliban Bob" McDonnell, out of 1.94 million cast. Deeds could still win this thing outright, despite being outspent by over $2 milliion (nearly 2:1)!
Again, I would argue that the Virginia Democratic/Progressive blogosphere played a role here, digging into McDonnell's background, campaign contributors, and associates. Waldo Jaquith deserves huge kudos for his work on this one. And, frankly, so does Raising Kaine. I wonder if the "so-called liberal media" (SCLM) would have done anything with the stories of McDonnell's former campaign manager (the convicted pedophile) and the possible Abramoff/DeLay connection, if it weren't for Waldo's work on this issue. And what about the Robin Vanderwall connection? Were you all holding your breaths waiting for the SCLM to do anything with this one? Ha.
Bottom line: I'm fairly certain that the Virginia Democratic blogosphere played a significant role here. Given Bob McDonnell's money advantage, why didn't he win in a landslide in this "red" state of ours? If you've got a good explanation, I'd love to hear it!
4) What about the defeat of Chris "Anything With a Pulse" Craddock and Dick "Baby Pesticides" Black?
Do you think those would have happened without the work of bloggers like Ben Tribbett, Maura Keaney, Kenton Ngo and others? It's possible. Do you think that Bruce Roemmelt would have come as close as he did to defeating "Sideshow Bob" Marshall without the blogs? How about Greg Werkheiser almost taking out Dave "Alcohol Industry" Albo? Again, it's certainly possible. Bruce Roemmelt and Greg Werkheiser ran top-notch campaigns. They also worked their tails off. So maybe the blogs had nothing to do with their (near) success. Still, it's possible.
Bottom line: Again, my guess is that the Virginia Democratic blogosphere had something - hard to say how much - to do with Democrats picking up a seat in the House of Delegates, and specifically with defeating Chris Craddock and Dick Black. But I freely admit I could be wrong about all this, for the reasons cited at the start of this article.
Also, to be objective I must point out that the Democratic blogosphere worked hard to promote other candidates -- Hilda Barg, for instance - who could have won but didn't. And let's not forget that the Virginia blogosphere also includes an active, energetic, and forceful Republican/Conservative component, possibly even bigger than the Democratic/Progressive blogosphere. Maybe they cancelled each other out? Hard to say. Frankly, I'm more interested -- as I often am -- in getting a conversation started on this subject and hearing what other people think about it than in coming up with "the answer." So...what are your thoughts?