It's the Economy, Stupid

By: Lowell
Published On: 1/18/2008 7:30:30 AM

So much for Iraq, terrorism, immigration, global warming or any other issue being the main topic of the 2008 presidential campaign?  Increasingly, it's looking like "it's the economy, stupid."  Check out these stories:

*New-Home Construction Drops Most Since 1980 ("U.S. home construction last year plummeted at a rate not seen since 1980")

*Into the Red All Over: Markets Plunge on Bleak News for Banks And Bond Insurers ("The U.S. stock market Thursday sustained its worst damage this year as major banks announced they were writing off billions of dollars in additional bad debt and signs emerged of even more trouble ahead for the financial and manufacturing sectors.")

*Krugman: Don't Cry for Me, America (Paul Krugman writes, "These days, we're playing the role usually assigned to third-world economies."  Ugh.)

*Fed Chief's Reassurance Fails to Halt Stock Plunge ("The stock market plunged again on Thursday on bad economic news, taking little comfort from reassuring words by the chairman of the Federal Reserve or an emerging consensus about a stimulus plan that many worry could be too late."

*Default Fears Unnerve Markets ("The turmoil on Wall Street is beginning to rock a foundation of the financial system: the ability of institutions to make good on their many trades with one another.")

Great stuff, huh?

P.S. Apparently, Gov. Kaine is reading different economic analyses than I am if he "expects better days for state economy."  Yeah, maybe in 2010!


Comments



Idiot-in-Chief (Eric - 1/18/2008 12:10:45 PM)
Dubya, our complete failure of a leader, has offered up his brilliant plan...  you'll never guess it...  MORE TAX BREAKS!   Isn't this where we started Dubya's demonstration of utter incompetence 7 years ago?

Seems this impending economic collapse is just what the doctor ordered for poor Dubya - an excuse to cut taxes again.  Sure, it's temporary now, but what happens next year after the country has blown its refund on big screen TVs?  Oh, we'll have to do it again.   Or maybe he's hoping that he can hold off a recession just long enough for him to get out of office and leave the next President, and the country, and many future  generations, holding the bag.  Maybe he's hoping if a collapse happens next year that history will somehow blame his successor.



Apparently, Bush missed the lecture (Lowell - 1/18/2008 12:22:05 PM)
on Keynesian economics.  More likely, he missed ALL the lectures on economics...and politics...and history...and English...and science...and ethics...and...


Bush: Reverse Midas (Lowell - 1/18/2008 4:25:01 PM)
Everything he touches turns to...well, NOT to gold, that's for damn sure!

Stocks Fall After Bush Announces Plan

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street extended its decline Friday as skittish investors unable to hold on to much optimism about the economy drew little comfort from President Bush's stimulus plan.

Investors pulled back from a big early advance, with the major indexes trading mixed as Bush began to speak. By the time the president finished announcing a plan for about $145 billion worth of tax relief, the indexes were well into negative territory.

Heckuva job as always by Bush and Company!  



Not to mention (Ron1 - 1/18/2008 4:55:02 PM)
His plan is idiotic, natch.

$800 rebates? Why not $1000? Why not $10,000? This stuff just grows on trees, right? It's the ultimate supply-side answer -- prebate ALL taxes, and see the federal government's ledger just burst with more tax dollars. Unbelievable -- a government run by infantile logic.

We're on the verge of some very bad times, I fear. I wish I knew more about currency devaluation, but I have a feeling the near future looks very grim.  



I'd advise moving all money out of stocks (Lowell - 1/18/2008 5:22:55 PM)
and into gold, cash, treasury bonds, etc.


Gold? (tx2vadem - 1/18/2008 5:47:24 PM)
Gold is highly volatile like any commodity.  If you are going for no risk, inflation indexed treasuries are the way to go.


I only say gold because that's where (Lowell - 1/18/2008 5:48:45 PM)
people traditionally put their money in times of economic turmoil.  In fact, that's exactly what's been happening the past few months, as people pour money into gold and gold funds...


But yes, inflation indexed treasuries (Lowell - 1/18/2008 5:49:14 PM)
would be a very smart investment at this time, IMHO.


If you can possibly manage it, I'd advise the opposite. (Silence Dogood - 1/18/2008 6:05:25 PM)
Don't divest completely if you can possibly help it.  Your goal as an investor is to buy low, sell high, and if the market is indeed crashing, you've already missed the "sell high" window.  I'm letting most of my existing stocks ride, sinking a decent-sized amount into inflation-indexed treasuries, and keeping a reserve available to buy back into the market as it gets lower so I can sell those stocks off during the next growth cycle.

Make sure you have enough money liquid to get by on in case you're going to need to make some college payments for your kids or something, shrink your budgets, and then DON'T FREAK OUT.  Try to remember that every piece of bad economic news is an opportunity for growth, and position yourself to take advantage of it.  In short, don't react to the market, anticipate it.



The question is, as always, is... (Lowell - 1/18/2008 6:10:10 PM)
...what's going to happen in the future.  If you think the stock market has hit bottom, then indeed, BUY!  If you think the stock market has a ways to go downwards (that's what I think), then SELL!  But you're definitely right with your advice, "DON'T FREAK OUT."  Luckily, I moved most of my money out of stocks several months ago, my analysis being that the economic fundamentals were totally FUBAR.


Question of timeframe I guess (Silence Dogood - 1/18/2008 6:40:47 PM)
I think the market's going to get lower--a lot lower--but I think it'll be higher by the time I actually need the money, I don't feel like paying the capital gains tax during a recession(unless the Bush administration is stupid enough to give me a rebate on it--see how fast investors pull out of the market and tank your economy in that case, losers!) and I don't want to go gambling all my money on guessing where the low-point in the market is going to be.

I only have about 20% of my disposable income invested in the market right now, though, so my investent strategy is indeed centered around gradually investing into a diversified portfolio as the market bottoms.  I've been waiting for this for a while now--no matter what Republicans may think of "socialist" Democrats, nothing redistributes wealth better than a good old fashioned capitalist market adjustment, at least for those who know how to see an opportunity behind every setback. :-)

Good luck!



Currency devaluation (tx2vadem - 1/18/2008 6:05:28 PM)
Well, it probably will not be as bad as Argentina, where the state had to freeze everyone's bank account.  But currency devaluation leads to severe inflation.  And that will lead to a lot of misery across the country.  

You can also look at Russia, Mexico and the Asian Tigers in the 1990s.  They all went through a currency crisis when the massive pool of capital that floats freely around the world rapidly exited their economies.  The same massive pool that created those fabulous high rises in Malaysia just as quickly wrecked their economy overnight.  The Gods of Capitalism giveth and they also taketh away.

But you know we aren't a developing economy; so, the impact will not be as painful.  Also, I don't think our currency is on the verge of collapsing.  If it does, then prepare for a global depression.



RE: Kaine's thoughts (Silence Dogood - 1/18/2008 5:49:43 PM)
Two things:

1. I'm sure I don't have to tell you why no executive ever predicts bad days for the economy of their political subdivision.  As efficient as the market is today, these predictions create a self-fulfilling prophesy.  It wouldn't matter if the market was setting a new record for growth before noon, if Bernanke held a press conference during lunch and advised people to start hiding cash under their mattresses, we'd be in a recession by dinner.

2. Most of the nation's financial worries are regionally located outside of Virginia.  The foreclosure crisis is mainly focused in Southern California east of Los Angeles; in Las Vegas, Nevada and surrounding suburban areas; and in Florida.   National financial institutions are suffering because they used interest rate drops from the Fed to buy up outstanding debt from the adjustable-rate subprime loan market (it's the Fed's fault, by the way, in the face of growing personal debt concerns their only solution was to help people borrow more money and acquire more debt).  Regional banks and financial institutions are doing much better, and for now that's particularly true in Virginia since we don't have the same level of foreclosure concerns to worry us.  So the Governor is correct--the variables beyond our control are the national economic issues.  All in all, though, we're still much better off than those poor schmoes in California, Nevada or Michigan.



So the Tax Rebate idea seems universally panned here (tx2vadem - 1/18/2008 6:12:15 PM)
That being the case, what does the RK community propose?  And don't you think the Democrats in Congress are basically going to accept President Bush's proposal?


How about a stimulus package (Lowell - 1/18/2008 6:17:23 PM)
that actually does something useful, like rebuilds infrastructure (putting people to work in the process) or creates "green jobs" or something?  How about something serious to help the housing sector? In general, I think that one-time tax rebates don't fix the underlying causes that got us into the mess we're in (one of which is chronic fiscal and trade deficits - how will a tax rebate help either of those?).


How about an Apollo program (Lowell - 1/18/2008 6:19:21 PM)
to get us off of oil?  That would be a long-term stimulus to a much stronger long-term economic -- not to mention national security and environmental -- situation.  The point is, if we're going to have a stimulus package, USE IT to do something good, don't just throw money at people mindlessly.


An analogy (Lowell - 1/18/2008 6:21:27 PM)
If a patient is sick and weakening, do you give him a shot of adrenaline or do you fix the underlying cause of why he's sick and weakening?  What Bush is talking about here is a shot of adrenaline to an economy that's fundamentally unsound and needs surgery.


This is a good suggestion (Silence Dogood - 1/18/2008 6:27:54 PM)
I object to the way the phrase "Apollo program" gets thrown around--to me the Apollo Program didn't just change some educational and technological priorities, it redefined what mankind is capable of achieving.

But we absolutely ought to invest in infrastructure, particularly our energy generation and transmission infrastructure.  We get so caught up thinking about the social security aspect of the New Deal that we forget that a huge component of it was also to develop our infrastructure, generate cheaper, dependable energy and expand electricity--Tennessee Valley Authority, anyone?  That did a whole lot more to modernize America's economy and industry than welfare checks and breadlines.



Call it whatever you want (Lowell - 1/18/2008 6:29:22 PM)
I'm just using "Apollo program" as shorthand.