SurveyUSA: Huckabee, Obama Ahead in South Carolina

By: Lowell
Published On: 1/7/2008 8:49:26 PM

SurveyUSA has the latest polling for the January 26 South Carolina primary.

Republicans
Huckabee: 36%
Romney: 19%
McCain: 17%
Thompson: 11%
Giuilani: 9%
Paul: 5%

"Compared to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 3 weeks ago, before Christmas and before Iowa, Huckabee is up 8 points, all other candidates are effectively flat or down."

Democrats
Obama: 50%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 16%

"Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll completed 3 weeks ago, before Christmas and before the Iowa Caucuses, when Clinton and Obama were effectively tied, Obama is up 11 points, Clinton is down 11 points, a 22-point swing...Among blacks, Obama had led by 20 points, now leads by 46."


Comments



Obama, go for it! (Rebecca - 1/7/2008 8:56:43 PM)
Yipes! Obama is taking off! I heard him talk today on CSPAN. He uses phrases from Kennedy, and he has adopted the cadences of Martin Luther King whereby he takes a phrase and repeats it throughout parts of his speech. This is similar to what King did with the phrase "I have a dream" in his "I Have a Dream" speech. These are some very powerful mobilizing communication techniques. Obama is a campaigning genius if nothing else, and he also has the "spirit". I think he has seized on the untapped frustration of the people and is harnessing that energy to carry himself forward.


mccain (bcat - 1/7/2008 10:23:46 PM)
Thank God the Republicans don't know (or care) enough about the general election to nominate McCain. I still have moments of anxiety when I think that he might actually get it. Then I see polls like this, with Huckabee up in one part of the country, and Giuliani (!) still holding on in some of the big states, and McCain turning them out in New Hampshire, and I realize that the Republicans are in a state of ideological disarray. And I feel a little bit better about the Dems, and Obama in particular, come November.


Obama Iowa victory celebrated in Ireland! (mkfox - 1/7/2008 10:58:01 PM)
His roots can be traced back to the Emerald Isle, and that town is celebrating!



Barack's Irish Connection....This Is Fun! (Lee Diamond - 1/7/2008 11:10:22 PM)
More about Barack's politics of addition!  Thanks for posting this.


Rhetoric lessons (hereinva - 1/7/2008 11:03:45 PM)
Reading the 1st comment, I believe Barack is using "rhetorical device" called Anaphora and parallelism.

"Anaphora is the repetition of the same word or words at the beginning of successive phrases, clauses, or sentences, commonly in conjunction with climax and with parallelism"

The excellent example is the "I Have A Dream" speech by Martin Luther King Jr. Very powerful.  



Yes, I noticed this too (Rebecca - 1/7/2008 11:50:32 PM)
I just watched his endorsement of Jim Webb on this site and noticed some real Jazz rhythms in his speech. He has wonderful timing and emphasis, orchestrated in a very exciting way. At one point when he said the American people had had enough the rhythm was exactly the same as Cannonball Adderly's spoken introduction to the tune Joe Zawenil's tune "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy". I almost expected to hear Joe Zawenil to come in on the organ.

He also has a hint of the rhythms of the black preachers I heard on the radio in Memphis they would work rhythm into their sermons and gradually the organ would come in and accompany them with added shouts of Amen! from the congregation.

He has great timing and spirit and no doubt his Irish roots have something to do with his great oratorical gifts.

Yes, I also noticed the repetition of phrases which really builds the excitement.



What? Another Irish politician? God save us! (Teddy - 1/7/2008 11:31:40 PM)


All in the the tradition of the Kennedys (Rebecca - 1/7/2008 11:51:56 PM)


Will front page headline in NH tomorrow morning be "Clinton tears up"? (relawson - 1/8/2008 12:26:32 AM)
Let me first say I think that this isn't a story - much ado about nothing.  If you actually watch the video you may find some relief that she is actually a human, not some robot.  

However, from a practical standpoint, the media is notorious for spinning this type of thing.  I also thought the "Dean Scream" was also much ado about nothing at the time - yet it was a turning point in his campaign.

So my question isn't really about Hillary Clinton.  My question is how do you think the media spins this, and what impact it has tomorrow.

It's no secret that I'm not fan of the Hillary.  But, I still must call a spade a spade.  It just isn't fair for the media to spin this into some sort of weakness on the part of Clinton.

Thoughts?  Will this cost votes tommorrow?  Will it be the headlines in the morning?



Ed Muskie all over again. (Jack Landers - 1/8/2008 11:16:52 AM)
It's not even a matter of spin, I think. Just showing the clip repeatedly hurts her.

I noticed something interesting talking to people in my office about it this morning. Those who only heard the clip on the radio but did not see the video said that they thought the whole thing sounded faked and that she was only doing it on purpose to combat her 'coldly calculating,' unemotional image.

Those who saw the video as well thought that she was honestly breaking up and cracking a little under the stress.

These distinctions are interesting but in both cases the reaction in the viewer or listener is a negative one. She is seen as either a disingenuous faker or a weak loser who can't handle the stress of the campaign trail.

For a President or a Presidential candidate to break up a little in response to, say, 9/11, or the sight of starving children is one thing. I think people are ok with that and even like to see it. But in this case it was nothing so dramatic. She was asked the most low-ball of lowball questions. Effectively 'how are you so awesome?' And she came within a hair's breadth of sobbing.

Weak, weak, weak. I found myself pitying her as I watched it. And I'll tell you, there never was a vote cast out of pity. People will usually vote for a liar or an asshole or a criminal before they'll vote for someone they think is weak.

If she's getting sobby over being asked 'how she does it,' can you even imagine how she'd handle the stress of a major international incident or a decision where thousands of lives are at stake? Can we imagine any other Presidential candidate getting a free pass after crying like that?

I can only think of one example of this happening in the past. Ed Muskie. He'd started out as the odds on favorite for the nomination. Then he cried on camera after somebody said something nasty about his wife when his campaign suddenly wasn't going so well. That was his 'Dean scream.' Muskie took all kinds of flak over that and his campaign never recovered.



Not as dramatic as the Dean Scream though (relawson - 1/8/2008 11:27:40 AM)
Once again - I thought the "Dean Scream" was over played and actually a result of a bad sound system.

And I think this incident with Clinton is overplayed.

I think it is interesting that you saw weakness.  So I heard of this at work yesterday.  Just read at that point - didn't watch the clip until last night.  When I had only read about it, I thought "weak".  When I watched the clip, I said "no story here".  I think the media just trumped things up - made a mountain of a molehill.

But, I watched it a few more times because some of her facial expressions caught my attention.  I am trying to figure out why she is looking to the right all the time.  As a poker player, that is a tattle for me - meaning this was all calculated.  But, the person she is speaking to might be to her right, making it innocent behavior.

Her eyes do go the other direction some (upper left) but rarely does she look straight ahead.  This could be a result of where people are, where cameras are, etc.  Or it could be a tattle.  

But, on the other hand people see what they want to see.  I believe that Clinton is sneaky.  So, when I look at this I see sneaky/calculating.  Some people believe she is sincere - so when they look at this they see human.  You apparently think she is weak.  So, naturally you see weakness.

It means different things to different people.  Will it impact her chances?  Not sure.  It doesn't seem to be getting the same amount of attention the "Dean Scream" got.  But it is getting some attention.



Landslide. (Jack Landers - 1/8/2008 11:22:10 AM)
It's turning into a rout. Hillary was leading in SC for months and now she's getting whipped 50-30. This is unstoppable momentum.

Just how much money does she have in the kitty for the general election, anyway? I know it's a lot. Can she transfer all of it to Obama so he'll have a healthy jump-start?