This morning's Washington Post, in what looks to be an article every day on Gerry Connolly (their new corporate favorite after Tom Davis?), has an intriguing observation about why Connolly announced when he did:
Connolly had been expected to wait until Davis made a decision about his future. But Tuesday's announcement was acknowledgment that he could not allow Byrne, who has been running hard for months, to continue to lock up money and support. The primary is June 10."I think he wants to send the signals within the party that he's serious," Fairfax Republican Party Chairman James E. Hyland said. "Laying out another month was not an option."
Perhaps Connolly's heard what I've been hearing, that Leslie Byrne's fundraising has been going very well? Or, perhaps Connolly's worried about facing the woman who won the 11th congressional district by 10 points (55%-45%) in 2005? Maybe he's noticed Leslie's strong grassroots support, especially in contrast to his own lack thereof? Finally, could Connolly have been getting just a wee bit nervous seeing Leslie endorsed by Donald McEachin, Chap Petersen, Bruce Roemmelt, Scott Surovell, Kate Wilder, and a slew of labor unions? All of the above?
The bottom line question is this: did Gerry Connolly rush his announcement up by several weeks to try and halt Leslie Byrne's momentum before it was too late? In short, did Connolly hit the panic button or what?
I think 500K for the primary, 2 million for the general. Which means $75-$100K in December.
$100,000 in one quarter (during Christmas) in one Congressional District would be amazing.
I don't want to set expectations that high, but if Leslie hit that, she's off to an amazing start. It would put her on pace to spend as much in this primary as Webb did in his statewide primary.
I don't care what you say, $100k to start this campaign would not be a "success" for a candidate like Leslie. If people really want her to win, they need to contribute more, and get others to do so as well. It is the best help she can get right now.
The amount candidates raise doesn't go up every month. The first quarter is a big test of how much money the candidate themselves bring to the table, especially long-term candidates and incumbents. These donors are those that don't need to be persuaded, that will give money for their candidate on call.
And talk about absurd? You think Leslie can raise $2 million between July and October with a Presidential and an upticket Senate race? You're on crack. That's a pace of $1.5 million per quarter IN THE SUMMER. Even Tom raises money at a pace of less than half that.
She needs to raise money now. If she comes in around $100k for last quarter, that would be very bad news, and she won't get even close to $1.5 million for the race, much less the $2.5 to $3 million she wants to raise.
First, amounts people give DO increase as the election draws closer.
$100,000 would be an excellent start given Leslie's only been going strong since about Thanksgiving. This tally would easily put her on track to raise over $1 million, if not more, for the primary alone!
The general will be flooded with cash if Davis retires, and the DCCC alone will probably make the seat a top target and GOTV base, as would a cooperating DSCC (for Warner's base), the DPVA, and the DNC (50-state staff already on the ground). A convergence of resources in this state and in this district particularly make it likely to be a $5+ million race, all sides counted....
Lowell = Federas Minion = Being paid by campaign
Ben = Leslies Minion = Being paid by campaign
The Irony is too much
Its amazing how paper thin you all are
For the record I have no problem with the minion aspect and both of you have good blogs but to call out someone as Gerrys minion when both of you are doing the same thing is too priceless