So Much for THAT Theory!

By: Lowell
Published On: 1/1/2008 8:23:27 AM

One of the arguments anti-"illegal immigrant" people use is that high rates of immigration lead to more crime.  Particularly, they point to incidents of violent crime, such as murder, supposedly committed by immigrants from Latin America. Well, the homicide stats are out for 2007 (2006 in parentheses); let's see how they look.

Alexandria: 6 (5) +1
Arlington: 2 (4) -2
Fairfax: 15 (20) -5
Loudoun: 1 (3) -2
Prince William: 9 (16) -7
Northern Virginia: 33 (48) -15

That's right, total homicides were down sharply in northern Virginia in 2007 -- including in the epicenter for anti-"illegal immigrant" sentiment, Prince William County.  According to the Washington Post, "Homicides declined in Prince William more sharply than anywhere else in the region."

OK, now, I'm not a statistical expert, but doesn't this demonstrate an INVERSE correlation between (increased) immigration and (decreased) homicide?   Yet, if you listen to the overheated rhetoric of the anti-immigrant forces, you'd think there was a strong, even disastrous, positive correlation.  Well, as the headline says, so much for THAT theory!


Comments



Historically, immigrants are targets of blame (PM - 1/1/2008 11:54:27 AM)
Many people like to cast blame outward.  (I guess I do on occasion.)  The chronic blamers do not accept responsibility for their own actions, or for problems within their society.  (I realize I'm preaching to the choir.)  Just an observation.  

In college I researched attitudes towards the Chinese in California around the turn of the last century.  After the San Francisco earthquake there was all sorts of irrational finger pointing at the Chinese for the extent of the damage (e.g., their substandard housing permitted the flames to spread more easily).

I'm sure we can all cite similar examples throughout history.

My respect for the importance of a good history education has gone way up in the last few years as I see how certain -- and I must use the adjective ignorant -- citizens make erroneous judgments that reflect, among other things, a lack of historical knowledge.

All we can do -- as you do in this post -- is keep pointing out the truth so that eventually people understand events better.

Despite all the xenophobia in the world, I really do believe things are getting better over all.  Many people do understand that "foreign" does not mean "enemy."  Perhaps Teacherken will share some of his perspective.  



I've represented hundreds of undocumented immigrants (Catzmaw - 1/1/2008 12:43:03 PM)
in Northern Virginia, and the vast majority of them strive very hard to avoid the attention of police.  There are two homes on my street which are like boarding houses, but you'd never know it because the men in them are so quiet.  They get up, usually before dawn, and go to work every day, then come home and pretty much mind their own business.  Quiet as church mice.  

The kind of trouble I usually see from the clients are things like traffic charges, petty thefts, possession of marijuana, or alcohol related charges (usually found drinking in a parking lot or in a park - something perfectly acceptable back home for them).  Occasionally I see charges of soliciting prostitution.  On average the most serious charges I see are drunk driving, domestic assaults, possession of stolen plates or decals, or possession and use of false or stolen identification.  The kind of trouble a lot end up getting into are quality of life things like public urination, public drinking, and dating of underage minors.  These are cultural issues and can be addressed through education about what is and is not acceptable behavior.  They're not trying to thumb their noses at the system.  They just need to know the rules.

I would not deny that there is a fairly substantial gang presence among the younger people especially - quite often the kids who follow their parents here after years of separation and then end up joining gangs because the parents don't have the time to devote to them.  They're always working.  However, these are exactly the same problems that legal immigrants and, for that matter, lower income Americans face.  When you're working two or three jobs and you have to commute long distances to get to work your kids are going to feel neglected.  I've actually seen a rather astonishing amount of wannabe gang affiliation from upper middle class and wealthy kids in Arlington too, so it's not something unique to immigrants.

Overall, my personal experiences bear out the statistics cited here.