Where's Gov. Kaine going to be for New Year's? His office just issued a press release:
Tim Kaine will travel to Iowa on New Year's Day making three campaign stops with Senator Barack Obama.In advance of the Iowa Caucus, Governor Kaine will appear at events with the Senator in Des Moines, Sioux City, and Council Bluffs, IA.
Public schedule follows below:
Tuesday, January 1stDes Moines Canvass Kick-Off
Roosevelt High School
4419 Center Street
Des Moines, IA 50312
Doors Open: 10:00 a.m.
Program Begins: 11:00 a.m.Sioux City Rally
Irving Elementary School
901 Floyd Boulevard
Sioux City, IA 51105
Doors Open: 2:45 p.m.
Program Begins: 3:30 p.m.Council Bluffs Rally
Iowa School for the Deaf
LIED Multipurpose Complex
3501 Harry Langdon Boulevard
Council Bluffs, IA 51503
Doors Open: 6:00 p.m.
Program Begins: 6:45 p.m.
Gov. Kaine is certainly pulling out all the stops for Barack Obama. We'll find out in just three days if it pays off. In the meantime, it's difficult for me to disagree with this analysis.
...if either Clinton or Obama win Iowa, and thus New Hampshire, the nomination almost certainly breaks their way. If Edwards sweeps the two states, then it looks like a close two-way campaign between Edwards and Clinton. If Edwards wins Iowa, and Clinton hangs on to take New Hampshire, then it looks like Clinton wins the nomination. If Edwards wins Iowa, and Obama hangs on to win New Hampshire, then all three should have a good shot and it is anyone's guess as to what happens next. I have to admit, the political junkie in me is kind of pulling for that result. This is great political theater, and I don't want it to all end on Thursday night, or even next Tuesday night.
I've been trying to do the math to figure out how any candidate could have 51% of the delegates after "Super Tuesday" and before the Va. primary -- or even by the time of National Convention. Just as a hypothetical, say if Clinton and Obama together have 65 % and Edwards has as little as 30% (I think he will have more than that) and the rest of the total of 5% go to 2nd tier or uncommitted, how could any of the top three win on the first ballot ? In the majority of states' the delegates are released from their candidate preference obligations after the first ballot (I think) how could the combination of the small number of IA and NH delegates result in any candidate having enough delegates to have the majority of delegates ?
So far as I know, Florida's delegates won't be seated until after the Pres. nominee has been secured at the convention, and then I think they will all be seated to vote for the Pres. nominee's VP choice. That leaves California with the biggest block of delegates that proportional vs. winner take all could help assure a delegate majority before the end of Feb. So far as I know, California still does proportional delegate distribution. I know there has been some debate about the CA legislature considering an electoral college proportional distribution after the general election but unless I'm misreading that oddity each party determines whether the have winner take all or proportional.
I guess those are enough examples of why I'd like for someone who knows about at least the majority of the larger states as to how the math could make it possible for anyone to have a majority of delegates by March or even July.
Thanks in advance to anyone who has laready done the state-by-state analysis or can do it easily/quickly. I can take the time to do the research and analysis bot I don't know where to find the state-by-state info.
Happy New Year all. This promises to be a tremendously excting and fun election year. I think the bottom line is that whomever the GOP nominates will have a really uphill battle to prevent a landslide Dem. victory and even much tougher odds against them for a win -- if we don't get overconfident and fail to work as if the GOP were united.
T.C.