Webb: "Virginia is Definitely in Play" in 2008

By: Lowell
Published On: 12/27/2007 7:10:18 AM

Today's Washington Times has Jim Webb predicting that "Virginia is definitely in play" in the 2008 presidential race.  If so, this could be the first time since 1964 that Virginia goes Democratic for President. According to Webb, the 2007 General Assembly election results were promising, as "[w]e took seats in areas that were strongly Republican."  Areas like Tidewater, where Democrats won seats with candidates like former police officer Bobbby Mathieson (over John Welch), retired Navy captain Joe Bouchard (over Chris Stolle), and Dr. Ralph Northam (over Nick Rerras).

In contrast, RPV chairman John Hager is quoted that he's "optimistic about 2008," and also that the Democratic victories in Hampton Roads don't "[show] any deterioration of Republican strength."  Hager adds that "it is going to be a great year for Republicans in Virginia because of the way the presidential race is shaping up, assuming the Democrats might have Hillary Clinton."

Who's right, Jim Webb or John Hager?  Personally, I'd go with Webb, who at this time 2 years ago was still thinking about running against the seemingly invincible George Allen.  We saw how that one turned out.  And Hager?  Well, he just presided over an election which saw Democrats retake the state senate and gain 4 seats in the House of Delegates.  As Hager's soon-to-be in laws might say, "heckuva job!"

By the way, the Moonie Washington Times makes a total misstatement in the article, that the possibility of Hillary Clinton being the Democratic nominee is what "prompted Mr. Kaine to campaign hard to get Mr. Obama elected."  That, obviously, is complete horse...ah, manure. Of course, the Moonie Times doesn't quote Gov. Kaine on this, or cite any evidence to back up its assertion. Of course, this IS the paper founded by a man who calls himself "humanity's Savior, Messiah, Returning Lord and True Parent."  Right, well it's certainly hard to argue with that!  Ha.

Comments



I think Webb will endorse John Edwars (totallynext - 12/27/2007 10:48:17 AM)
Edwards campaign early on for Webb long before any other national person.

PS - they both have the populist message.



That's false. (Lowell - 12/27/2007 11:00:58 AM)
3/29/06: Wes Clark endorses Webb.
9/21/06: Barack Obama campaigns for Webb.
9/26/06: John Edwards campaigns for Webb.
10/3/06: Hillary Clinton campaigns for Webb.


I'm optimistic all around (PM - 12/27/2007 12:09:07 PM)
I was motivated by your post to go to the TPM polltracker site and I looked up the November and December state results for R versus D matchups.  I liked what I saw.  http://tpmelectioncentral.com/... (December)
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/... (November)

In quite a few southern/border states, and other important states (like Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico and Iowa) the Dems are doing very well against the GOP candidates.  Romney and Rudy are not looking very good in those states.  In certain matchups, the Dems are ahead even in places like Kansas and Kentucky.  There are a lot of reasons why these early polls are not reliable, but there's an unmistakable nationwide trend.



Obama Is Great For VA (Lee Diamond - 12/27/2007 2:40:23 PM)
Obama has ALWAYS been a Uniter.  Obama is a progressive Democrat who's approach to politics is building consensus.  That is why Tim Kaine endorsed Barack Obama.

Barack Obama represents the future.  He is going to lead us to a better place.

BTW, he gave an awesome speech for Jim Webb and was here more than once.



Did you see the speech he gave today? (Lowell - 12/27/2007 2:43:20 PM)
"Stand for Change: Our Moment is Now"


problem: (Chris Guy - 12/27/2007 3:21:42 PM)
I think McCain will be the nominee as of now. I think he can easily win this state.


We're All Just Yakking (Lee Diamond - 12/27/2007 3:27:41 PM)
Sometimes I wonder why I bother, but this is a good way to share information.  Sharing opinions and speculations less valuable.

Newsflash:  John McCain is OLD.  He looks old.  He will not maintain the schedule of any of the Democratic nominees.  He will not get to as many places. He is weighed down (as all of them will be) by failure.  McCain less so than the others but still it will have an impact.

Inevitably, McCain, like any Republican, will bring a tired bunch of losers into office with him.

It is time for a fresh start.  We have plenty of running room to establish that our team is better than their team.  Lets stop whining and kick a lot of ass.



What does this have to do (Lowell - 12/27/2007 4:37:15 PM)
with Webb saying Virginia's in play for 2008?  


Yes, speculations aren't impt. (PM - 12/27/2007 3:52:15 PM)
But look at this.

When one looks at which candidate has a high negativity factor, the name Hillary springs readily to mind.  Yet negativity is a general, abstract concept.  So how does Hillary stack up versus Obama in important states?  By that, I do not mean states like New York and California, which any Democratic candidate should win easily.  What comes to mind are states where Democrats have been close.

What generated this look today was news from the Rasmussen folks that Hillary is competitive in North Carolina.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Hillary Clinton is competitive in the state against four leading Republican Presidential candidates. The former First Lady has a two-point edge over Mitt Romney (42% to 40%) and trails Rudy Giuliani by a statistically insignificant single percentage point (Giuliani 40% Clinton 39%).

She also trails John McCain by five (45% to 40%) and Mike Huckabee by seven (46% to 39%).

Unfortunately, Rasmussen did not compare her with Obama or Edwards in NC.  (The lack of Edwards polling is appalling -- so I do not mean to slight the Edwards backers in this debate -- the numbers just are not there to compare.)  But many polls have compared Hillary and Obama versus the leading GOP contenders in what I term important states -- states where the 2008 election may turn.  I also have included states which one might not think were competitive, but it turns out are in the 2008 landscape.  

Looking at the results below, you can find a snapshot of how the Clinton and Obama are doing against the various Republican candidates in many states.  My conclusion -- except for Iowa, Hillary is doing at least marginally better than Obama in all these states.  Florida is pretty much a wash at this point.

Note that I have grouped these by state, with the polls done at the same time, with different polling companies separated.

Note also how Hillary does in Virginia versus Barack.

Alabama

·  AL-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Giuliani (R) 49%, Clinton (D) 42%   Clinton -7

·  AL-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Romney (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%  Clinton -1

·  AL-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Huckabee (R) 49%, Clinton (D) 44%   Clinton -5

·  AL-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 43%  Clinton -7

·  AL-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Giuliani (R) 52%, Obama (D) 36%   Obama -16

·  AL-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Romney (R) 48%, Obama (D) 39%  Obama -9

·  AL-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Huckabee (R) 52%, Obama (D) 37%  Obama -15

·  AL-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 54%, Obama (D) 36%   Obama  -18

Kentucky

·  KY-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 45%  Clinton +2

·  KY-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 48%, Romney (R) 44%  Clinton +4

·  KY-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 47%, Huckabee (R) 46%  Clinton +1

·  KY-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 44%  Clinton -6

·  KY-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Giuliani (R) 50%, Obama (D) 40%  Obama -6

·  KY-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Romney (R) 46%, Obama (D) 40%  Obama -6

·  KY-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Huckabee (R) 51%, Obama (D) 38%  Obama -13

·  KY-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 35%  Obama -18

Virginia

·  VA-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 42%  Clinton +10

·  VA-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 53%, Romney (R) 40%  Clinton +13

·  VA-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 54%, Huckabee (R) 40%  Clinton +10

·  VA-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 46%   Clinton +2

·  VA-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 45%   Obama +3

·  VA-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 43%  Obama +7

·  VA-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 51%, Huckabee (R) 42%  Obama +9

·  VA-Pres
Dec 20 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 44%  Obama -6

New Mexico

·  NM-Pres
Dec 19 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 46%  Clinton +3

·  NM-Pres
Dec 19 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 44%  Clinton +6

·  NM-Pres
Dec 19 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 49%, Huckabee (R) 45%  Clinton +4

·  NM-Pres
Dec 19 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 45%  Clinton -3

·  NM-Pres
Dec 19 SurveyUSA

Giuliani (R) 49%, Obama (D) 44%  Obama -5

·  NM-Pres
Dec 19 SurveyUSA

Romney (R) 46%, Obama (D) 44%  Obama -2

·  NM-Pres
Dec 19 SurveyUSA

Huckabee (R) 46%, Obama (D) 45%  Obama -1

·  NM-Pres
Dec 19 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 40%  Obama -11

Missouri

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 43%  Clinton +6

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 41%  Clinton +10

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 49%, Huckabee (R) 47%  Clinton +2

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 46%  Clinton +4

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 42%  Obama +5

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 49%, Romney (R) 39%  Obama +10

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Huckabee (R) 47%, Obama (D) 45%  Obama +2

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 44%  Obama +3

Ohio

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 40%  Clinton +9

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 40%  Clinton +11

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 51%, Huckabee (R) 39%  Clinton +12

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%  tie

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Giuliani (R) 46%, Obama (D) 40%  Obama -6

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 43%, Romney (R) 42%  Obama +1

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 43%, Huckabee (R) 42%  Obama +1

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 38%  Obama +9

(Ohio again, different pollster)

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Giuliani (R) 44%, Clinton (D) 42%  Clinton -2

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Romney (R) 43%, Clinton (D) 43%  tie

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Huckabee (R) 44%, Clinton (D) 40%  Clinton -4

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Giuliani (R) 43%, Obama (D) 40%  Obama -3

·  OH-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Huckabee (R) 45%, Obama (D) 39%  Obama -6

Iowa

·  IA-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 42%  Clinton +5

·  IA-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 48%, Romney (R) 45%  Clinton +3

·  IA-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 46%, Huckabee (R) 45%  Clinton +1

·  IA-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%  Clinton -1

·  IA-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 55%, Giuliani (R) 36%  Obama +19

·  
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 51%, Romney (R) 39%  Obama +12

·  IA-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 52%, Huckabee (R) 39%  Obama +13

·  IA-Pres
Dec 18 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 39%  Obama +12

Missouri

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Clinton (D) 45%, Giuliani (R) 39%  Clinton +6

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Huckabee (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 43%  Clinton -2

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Obama (D) 43%, Giuliani (R) 42%  Obama +1

·  MO-Pres
Dec 18 Rasmussen

Huckabee (R) 45%, Obama (D) 41%  Obama -5

Ohio

·  OH-Pres
Dec 4 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 44%  Clinton +4

·  OH-Pres
Dec 4 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 41%  Clinton +10

·  OH-Pres
Dec 4 SurveyUSA

Clinton (D) 47%, Huckabee (R) 45%  Clinton +2

·  OH-Pres
Dec 4 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 51%, Clinton (D) 43%  Clinton -8

·  OH-Pres
Dec 4 SurveyUSA

Giuliani (R) 46%, Obama (D) 43%  Obama -3

·  OH-Pres
Dec 4 SurveyUSA

Obama (D) 45%, Romney (R) 42%  Obama +3

·  OH-Pres
Dec 4 SurveyUSA

Huckabee (R) 44%, Obama (D) 41%  Obama -3

·  OH-Pres
Dec 4 SurveyUSA

McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 40%  Obama -11

Alabama

AL-Pres
Nov 30 SurveyUSA
Giuliani (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 45%  Clinton -5

AL-Pres
Nov 30 SurveyUSA
Romney (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 47%  tie

AL-Pres
Nov 30 SurveyUSA
Huckabee (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 46%  Clinton -1

AL-Pres
Nov 30 SurveyUSA
McCain (R) 52%, Clinton (D) 42%  Clinton -5

AL-Pres
Nov 30 SurveyUSA
Giuliani (R) 55%, Obama (D) 38%  Obama -17

AL-Pres
Nov 30 SurveyUSA
Romney (R) 51%, Obama (D) 41%  Obama -10

AL-Pres
Nov 30 SurveyUSA
Huckabee (R) 48%, Obama (D) 41%  Obama -7

AL-Pres
Nov 30 SurveyUSA
McCain (R) 56%, Obama (D) 35%  Obama -21

Florida

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Giuliani (R) 49%, Clinton (D) 45%  Clinton -4

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Giuliani (R) 50%, Obama (D) 43%  Obama -6

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Giuliani (R) 51%, Edwards (D) 42%  Edwards -9

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Clinton (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 45%  Clinton +4

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Obama (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 42%  Obama +7

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Edwards (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 42%  Edwards +7

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 47%  Clinton -1

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 45%  Obama -2

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

McCain (R) 46%, Edwards (D) 45%  Edwards -1

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Clinton (D) 48%, Romney (R) 45%  Clinton +3

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Obama (D) 47%, Romney (R) 42%  Obama +5

·  FL-Pres
Nov 11 St. Petersburg Times

Edwards (D) 48%, Romney (R) 41%  Edwards +7

 



Jeeeeeezzz (Lee Diamond - 12/27/2007 6:49:21 PM)
Whether VA is in play would seem to kind of depend on who gets the nomination.  NY we ain't even tho we're making progress.  There is a base for Obama in Virginia.  More so than for Hillary Clinton.

Some of the things that get said are even less informed than early polls.  However:

Interesting that Obama seems to do especially well in Iowa, a state where he has become relatively well known.

Mostly, the Dems are competitive where they need to be when you consider that their campaigns will shift once we have a nominee who starts making a focused case against the Republicans.  The Republican field, despite these polls, is in pretty pitiful shape.  Their best hope looks like it might be an old guy who is even more tied to the past than Clinton Inc.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Frankly, I care about as much what Terry Mc Auliffe and the rest of the flunkies think as I care what Karl Rove thinks.  I'm not involved in politics because I want to glom on to something or someone and ride them to some f-ing career.  I'm driven by ideas.

Obama has so much to offer, I do kind of swoon.  I see opportunity. I have been active in politics since 1976 and I see a spectacular force that is not to be missed.



Lee, just an FYI (Lowell - 12/27/2007 6:51:32 PM)
It's a lot easier to follow your comments if you hit "reply" instead of "post."  That way, we all know what you're referring to.


I got it (Alicia - 12/28/2007 9:58:28 PM)
I could figure out what Lee was referring to.  What's the deal with you two?


The "deal" with us two is that (Lowell - 12/31/2007 5:28:34 PM)
we're good friends.  


What did you expect Hager to say? (TurnPWBlue - 12/31/2007 3:53:11 PM)
Hager can't really come out and say, "Hey, we Republicans are struggling in Virginia.  Look at the whoopin' we just took in Tidewater and NoVa is now a lost cause for us."  Virginia certainly isn't a solid blue state (yet), but we're making progress.  A lot will depend on who the nominees are and what is going on in the world come November 2008.  A lot can change between now and then.