On that last bit about this not being a regional contest. This might very well turn into 'NoVa vs. the rest of Virginia.' In fact, in a contest between Moran and Deeds, it's hard to see this not ending up that way. You've got the rural guy from Bath County with a Virginia accent up against the suburban guy with a Massachusetts accent. The comparisons can't be avoided.

Brian Moran is alot like Harris Miller- "the NoVA candidate"- and despite that Jim Webb crushed Miller in Arlington and Fairfax... I'm not saying that Brian won't do well in Alexandria- but Creigh is much better known in Arlington and Fairfax and I think he will be very competitive everywhere in NoVA except Alexandria.

from NOVA. Not sure what the analogy is here.

Location doesn't matter as much as it used to, especially in place like NoVA which have lots of access to information.

As for Brian working "all over the State", we certainly respect him trying to raise money at the Beach.  However, don't think that we feel his very presence made a difference.  Brian got us the money we needed for the job.  And we're greatful.  But the local candidates were the one who appealed to Democrats, Independents, AND some Republicans.  Not Delegate Moran.

All that said, I respect Delegate Moran, and though I strongly support Creigh, I will also strongly support Brian if he gets the nomination.  That being said, I hope he doesn't :).

Go Creigh!

True, but Webb had stronger appeal to rural voters due to his economic populism, his outspoken concern for the treatment of people regarded as 'rednecks' and his stance on second amendment rights. Wheras Harris Miller came across as being entirely a suburban creature.

I volunteered for Jim Webb in the 5th District during the primary and have spent a lot of time traveling around this mostly rural district for various campaigns over the last 6 years or so. Webb was an easy sell for me when I was talking to rural voters and a tougher sell for my Charlottesville brethren (although the work paid off and we did barely carry Charlottesville in the primary).

This is pretty much the way it will go with Creigh and Brian. Except of course that Creigh has Charlottesville easily wrapped up. Suburban primary voters are going to be concerned that Creigh isn't supportive enough of civil unions for gay couples while rural voters are going to look at Brian Moran and see a Yankee carpet-bagger who would eventually do something to interfere with deer hunting or what-have-you.

To be totally honest with you, as a Creigh supporter (no, I don't work for the campaign or have any formal connections), that's probably how I'm going to cast the race in my efforts on his behalf. I'll portray Creigh as being 'one of us' and a guy who really understands the lives of ordinary rural Virginians. Because that is how I actually feel about him. And while I may refrain from direct attacks on Brian for the most part, that praise of Creigh will carry a silent but obvious implication that Brian is an 'outsider' who wants to come down here with his Massachusetts accent and tell everyone what's what.  Brian Moran is going to have himself a serious up-hill fight outside of Northern Virgina.  All we're going to have to do is be very thoughtful in our choice of language with an eye for the odd dog whistle.    After that it's all ground game.  

I'm not trying to get nasty or pick a fight with any of Brian's supporters here. Just talking shop and being honest.

judged for their accents.

Gotta love this.

since at least the early 80s - well over 22 years - and you think it's appropriate to imply he's a carpetbagger?  Didn't Brian make it to Virginia around the same time that Tim Kaine came here?  You can't paint Moran as an outsider without doing the same to Kaine, so I'm calling BS on the tactic.  

George Allen - born in California
Mark Warner - born in Indiana
Tim Kaine - born in Minnesota

So really, pushing the outsider card plays on exactly the same thing that pisses southerners off when people judge them for their accents.

Of course, the hypocrisy of that won't stop anyone, I think.

Comparing Moran/Deeds to Miller/Webb is ludicrous

First, making Brian Moran the Harris Miller to Creigh Deeds's Jim Webb is an insult to Brian Moran, especially considering the massive amount of support Brian Moran gave to Jim Webb during the campaign.  And Creigh Deeds is a nice guy and a good candidate and all that, but he's not Jim Webb.  

Second, I'm not sure what circles you're moving around in, but from where I stand here in Arlington I hear far more about Brian Moran than I do about Creigh Deeds.  Brian's got very strong ties to Arlington dating back to his days as a judicial clerk and prosecutor and is highly regarded among local attorneys throughout Fairfax, Arlington, Falls Church, and Alexandria.  From what I can tell he is popular among Democrats and left-leaning independents throughout Northern Virginia and has the respect of all but the most reactionary Republicans.  

To be frank, I don't know how Brian will play out with the rest of Virginia, but to award Creigh Deeds all but Alexandria in your prognostications is totally off base.  

Ludicrous comparison.

"Brian has "been there" for every major fight; we have won every election since Brian took over as caucus chair in 2001."

Um... no offense intended by this, Brian, but the reason we have won every major race since 2001 has more to do with Mark Warner than you.  Sorry, that's just how I see it.  More than anything else, it's been Mark Warner.

Mark Warner has contributed and lent his name to those races,  making speeches and all that, but the one working the room, the phones, the connections, and the venues during those fights has been Brian Moran.  Mark Warner has great marquis value as a speaker and helps energize supporters who appear at those events, but it's Brian who's been doing the dirty, day-to-day, thankless (see how little credit he got from you) behind the scenes caucus work.  Those events don't just happen by themselves.  You think there would have been so many successful outings by Mark Warner without the contributions of one very busy, hard-working caucus chair?  Give credit where credit is due.  Brian Moran works his butt off.  

But Democrats would be nowhere without Mark Warner.  Our success goes almost entirely towards Warner's capable governance.  Brian Moran has helped, no doubt.  But Mark Warner changed how people viewed the Democratic Party.  Mark Warner gave us the fire, and the momentum.

Mark Warner is the father of our success, far more than anything or anybody else.

His office is in my  area of alexandria.

I respect Mr Deeds, but he has lost elections before, and we need winners.

Bill Clinton, Mark Warner, Chap Petersen, and many more have lost elections and I think all of them would argue that its made them better and smarter candidates.  I don't think its a reason to write someone off as a credible.

Other than possibly his 1995 primary, Brian has never really been tested in an election.  Shouldn't that warrant at least the same level of concern as losing a statewide race by 326 votes?

for Brian Moran if you want.  The fact that Creigh Deeds lost by 323 votes to Bob McDonnell isn't one of them, IMHO.

The argument is flawed.  Creigh barely lost after being outspent 2-1.  Closest statewide election in Virginia history.

Delegate Moran has not yet been tested outside of Alexandria.  Just because he's popular in his hometown doesn't mean he's popular everywhere, people.  And just because he helped raised money for candidates in all parts of the state, and that he's visited all parts of the state, doesn't make him a guaranteed winner there.  Not in the slightest.

I honestly don't see how Delegate Moran is competetive in the fifth, second, and ninth.  You don't have to win these districts, but you have to keep the vote close enough that it matters when you run up your numbers in the 8th and 3rd.

I'm very fond of Creigh Deeds but will be supporting Moran for Governor as will many, many others across the Commonwealth (including some surprising names from Charlottesville).

When one looks at organizational ability, fundraising heft, legislative accomplishments and record of helping elect fellow Democrats, Moran is simply a far better candidate.

I very much regret that Deeds made this announcement so early, hope that he'll reconsider and decide to seek the AG's office.

To say that Creigh didn't work his but off for Democrats is bull.  Everywhere I went in SWVA this year, Creigh was there.  

And why should helping fellow Dems matter?  Jim Webb was a former Republican, and we rallied around him.  You know why?  He could win.  And there's plenty of time for Creigh to build up his organization and fundraise.  Based on your reasonings, I personally think YOU'RE the one making an announcement too early.

Jim Webb was a former Republican, and we rallied around him.  You know why?  He could win.

Well, that certainly is a principled and inspiring statement.

Creigh came to a fundraiser for Bruce Roemmelt in western PWC. He spoke eloquently, passionately and at length about not only Bruce but also Corey Riley who attended. Corey ran against John Stirrup for the Gainesville District BOCS seat. Creigh stayed until after the event ended at 5 P.M. to talk to all of us, then drove home to Bath County.

BTW, one of the posts said something to the effect that Creigh may have a difficult time gaining name recognition and getting his message out in NOVA. I'm one of his volunteers. I know those of who worked so hard for Jim Webb can put many boots on the ground for Creigh when he's physically here and when he isn't. I've already asked for bumper stickers and you will start to see many soon on vehicles that still have Webb stickers. By Jan. 2008 I'll have Creigh's and Leslie's bumper stickers on my vehicle together with Leslie's Byrne's and Mark Warner's. I'm sure people who like Mark and Leslie will get the connection between them and Creigh. Rolling Democratic billboards do cause people to ask about our candidates.

My twin brother Jim and his wife, who live 5 miles from Va. Tech where Jim and I went to college, will be working hard to help Creigh in the Fighting 9th CD all the way to Wise County where Jim and I came from.

Get the picture about why I believe Creigh will be a formidable opponent against anyone the GOP can nominate ?

                      T.C.

Creigh came to a fundraiser for Bruce Roemmelt in western PWC. He spoke eloquently, passionately and at length about not only Bruce but also Corey Riley who attended. Corey ran against John Stirrup for the Gainesville District BOCS seat. Creigh stayed until after the event ended at 5 P.M. to talk to all of us, then drove home to Bath County.

BTW, one of the posts said something to the effect that Creigh may have a difficult time gaining name recognition and getting his message out in NOVA. I'm one of his volunteers. I know those of who worked so hard for Jim Webb can put many boots on the ground for Creigh when he's physically here and when he isn't. I've already asked for bumper stickers and you will start to see many soon on vehicles that still have Webb stickers. By Jan. 2008 I've have Creigh's and Leslie's bumper stickers on my vehicle alongside Leslie's and Mark's. Rolling Democratic billboards do cause people to ask about our candidates. My twin brother Jim and his wife, who live 5 miles from Va. Tech where Jim and I went to college, will be working hard to help Creigh in the Fighting 9th CD all the way to Wise County where Jim and I came from.

Get the picture about why I believe Creigh will be a formidable opponent against anyone the GOP can nominate ?

                      T.C.

On all the variables you mention, there is simply no comparison.  Also, frankly, I cannot see Creigh as having the "gravitas" and the resume to be gov.  It seems like a stretch.

He's got all the passion and dedication needed to be Governor.

I have met and spoken with Creigh a number of times.  And, frankly, I don't get it.  

He was also pretty opportunistic.  When Jim Shuler was briefly redistricted out of being my delegate, Creigh ran for the redrawn district (Creigh's area southwest toward Bburg)and won.  Then he turned right around within a month or so and ran for the late Emily Couric's seat, which included Creighs residence all the way over to Charlottesville.  The configuration which makes that possible is hard to describe.  But all you need to know to understand is Morgan Griffeth gerrymandering.  

That is to say, we worked our tails off to elect him and he goes and dumps s### on us.  that he won didn't make him ready.  And then in a blink of an eye, there he was vying for the AG spot.  

Now probably you don't think that's a big deal.  But it is.  It shows someone trying to rise too quickly for his own good.  He needs to simmer down.  Though energy is great, it is no substitute for policy depth.  

And when it comes to the issues, I'd trust Moran way before I'd do so with Creigh.  I do like Creigh, he's a nice man.  

and as a former constituent of Creigh, I am awaiting Brian Moran's announcement.  He is the only statewide candidate who could get me out of my possibly temporary political retirement.

Brian's been to our district a couple times and I've heard from  voters from Montgomery County VA who really like him.

When it comes to stature for the state's highest job, and when it comes to what we'll need to have a strong candidate to stand up to Taliban Bob, Brian's our guy.  Besides being a great caucus chair, he's been on the right (as in correct) side of so many issues.  

And the same can't always be said for Creigh.  Nice man.  Not as strong a candidate.  (Also Creigh narrowly lost AG, but that doesn't translate to him coming that close for the top job.) Sorry, Creigh.

Run, Brian, run.

"When it comes to stature for the state's highest job, and when it comes to what we'll need to have a strong candidate to stand up to Taliban Bob, Brian's our guy."

Um... did you just indirectly call Creigh a wuss?  He's been sticking up for Democrats for decades.  And not from a safe district, either.  Creigh comes from red Bath County.  So when he stands up for Progressive Democratic values, as he does frequently, there's a chance he might no be re-elected.  But he still does.  That takes strength, Kathy.

"Besides being a great caucus chair, he's been on the right (as in correct) side of so many issues."

Many issues that the blogosphere see's as "right" can only be described as "left."  Too left.  Virginia isn't blue, or even purple.  It's light red, and competetive ONLY with the right candidates.  I thought Tuesday would've revealed that.  But just think to fall 2007, if you will.  Who are our new Senators?  Chap: Moderate.  Northam: Moderate.  Miller: Moderate.  Out of our four new Senators, we elected three moderates.  In the House, at least two (Mathieson and Bouchard) are moderates, and you could argue for and against the label on the other two (Nichols and Vanderhye)

I may be from Virginia Beach, but as a student at VT, I practically live in Blacksburg.  Yes, Brian is a very nice guy, and very likable.  But if you want a candidate that can actually win Montgomery County, go with Creigh.  Brian will get trounced in the Ninth, Fifth, Second, Sixth, Seventh, Fourth, and First.  In fact, he's only really a strong candidate in the 11th, 8th, and 3rd, and you just can't win statewide on that.  It all comes down to electability, Kathy.  As nice as Brian is, he just doesn't have it.  Most (not all, but most) southerners just aren't going to support a Northern Liberal with a Boston Accent for Governor.

stuff you claim Brian Moran is dumping on us?  He's been extraordinarily effective in shifting the General Assembly toward the middle, away from the Taliban Bob types, and he's doing it the right way; through building up the Democratic and independent base; appealing to Virginians on issues that really matter to them such as health care and education and assistance to seniors; and appearing in every kind of venue to speak reasonably and eloquently of the need for change.

I don't know what the deal is with the Boston accent.  Somehow, those furriners Tim Kaine and Mark Warner managed to appeal enough to the rural, southern base to win their elections.  Brian may be a little hampered by that accent, but look past it and you hear someone who makes sense.  Unless, of course, you're saying rural, southern voters are just too dumb to vote for anyone but a good ole boy.  Brian doesn't try to be what he isn't.  He doesn't show up in the rural counties affecting a southern accent and pretending to love guns 'n huntin'.  Could this lose him votes?  Maybe, but I suspect that most of the people who would judge him purely on that are going to go with the Republican candidate every time.  No real loss there.  

If you want to see the difference between Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran go to their respective web sites.  Brian's is much more densely packed with legislative initiatives, policy positions, and well-articulated strategies and objectives.  Creigh's shows us a nice guy who does well for his constituents, but it's short on that type of detail.  He's starting out way behind the curve, hundreds of thousands of dollars behind Brian in fund-raising, and lacking the sophistication and depth of Brian's organization.    

I think we better just agree to disagree.  Your clearly passionate about Brian's campaign, and I'm passionate about Creigh's.  Let's just admit that neither is going to convince the other before things get nasty, as they usually do when passionate people disagree.

I'd ease up on the aggressiveness with Catzmaw.  I don't always agree with her, but she's been a decent judge of character longer than you've been alive, I'd bet.  If you're going to challenge her like this, be prepared to follow through on the facts.

Yes, Brian has worked hard in the GA.  But so have a lot of good Democrats.  Just because they work hard and have a lot of issues on the table doesn't mean they deserve to be Governor.

How many times have we been on the same page?  Debate's debate.  No one has to get nasty.  I go to court every morning trying my best to win, but I'll hang out with my opponent the same evening.  Heck, back in the day that opponent was sometimes Brian Moran.  

I'm just saying Brian would make a better governor than Creigh.  Not trying to say I wouldn't be happy to have Creigh represent me in the GA if I lived in his district or that I wouldn't have a drink with the man.  He seems like a great guy.  You and I just disagree about who might be best qualified for the governorship.  

I respect you, and I'd rather not put you or I at risk of saying something that may damage that respect.  That's all.

There was so much going on today, I almost forgot to mention this...

BRIAN MORAN ANNOUCNES SUPPORT OF NEW HEALTHCARE ACCESS INITIATIVES
~invests in reducing infant mortality and easing costs to small businesses~

ALEXANDRIA - House Democratic Caucus Chairman Brian Moran made the following statement about Healthcare Access proposal released today by Governor Kaine. Delegate Moran was a member of the Governor's Healthcare Reform Commission and is a member of the Health, Welfare and Institutions Committee in the House of Delegates.

"Today the Governor proposed a responsible set of initiatives to provide access to quality care for those Virginians who need it most," said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Brian Moran. "We brought together the best experts in this Healthcare Commission and developed a set of fiscally responsible proposals. The plan invests in reducing our infant morality rate and easing the rising healthcare costs for small businesses. I look forward to working hard to make sure these initiatives are successful and we expand critically needed care."

In Virginia, we have approximately 1 million uninsured and 70% of those are working or living in a household with a working family member. The Governor's proposal comes from recommendations of his Healthcare Reform Commission and provides $5 million each year of the biennium for free clinics, health centers and the Virginia Healthcare Foundation. We will add positions to the Office of Minority Health and Public Policy and funding for Mission of Mercy and Virginia Dental Health Foundation for the thousands who can't afford dental care. The proposal expands healthcare services to low-income women, provides for Breast and Cervical Cancer detection and expands FAMIS to cover 400 new women. Lastly, we developed a new small business health insurance program to help provide coverage for small businesses to low-income families.

"The Governor has begun to tackle a moral crisis facing Virginia - where we have the 17th highest infant mortality rate in the nation. This plan takes the first steps to expand prenatal care and provide critical services to mothers with children in that first fragile year of life. In addition, Governor Kaine has acted on the pressing challenge rising healthcare costs present for small businesses, and developed a strong pilot program to help decrease costs to employer," Moran said.

Deeds excluded quite a few people from his conference call today.  I'm trying to keep an open mind, but apparently Deeds has already made his mind up about me.

Bloggers for Moran anyone?

you're going to pick candidates based on a petty personal slight?

Fantastic.

Probably better you don't tell me what I will or won't do.

touchy, much?

Don't put your baggage on my cart or assume you know anything about me.

Worry about yourself and I'll take care of myself, thanks.

I'd leave you off a call, too.

And hint for the future: if you don't like been taken to task for the things you say, then you ought to stop saying them out loud.

I think this had to do more with people who get a lot of blog reads.  Like Kenton, Ben, Lowell, etc.  It was just to answer any questions, primarily about "why are you running so early."

He couldn't have 100+ bloggers on one phone call.  Not everybody could be there.  

But I doubt this "personal slight" is a real reason for supporting Moran.  If you like Moran, just say it.  It's not a bad thing, you know.