I've been talking to various people today about the Phil Forgit-Rob Wittman race, and it's definitely been interesting to hear the different perspectives. Here's the Forgit camp's take on what happened, particularly with regard to the DCCC. I'm not necessarily endorsing this, just passing it along for discussion purposes.
1. The Forgit people are "hurt," "angry," "frustrated" and "puzzled" that, although Philip was recruited by the DCCC and met every condition the DCCC set for him (money, polling, etc.), in the end, they "pulled the rug out from under us."
2. The DCCC put $25,000 into the race via the DPVA, but only on condition that Gov. Kaine match it (which he did).
3. The early polling, with questions asked a variety of ways, "showed us a little down or even up."
4. The results say "nothing about the kind of candidate Philip was." "From our side, we did what we could do."
5. The DCCC wouldn't give the Forgit campaign a straight answer, wouldn't return calls, wouldn't tell him one way or the other whether they were going to support him or not. "They didn't give reasons, just dragged us along."
6. If Philip had known a priori that this would have happened, he "might have made a different decision" about getting in the race.
7. Around 20% of money came Friday or later -- too late to make a difference.
8. There was no well-thought-out strategic process about this race from the DCCC.
9. At one point, the DCCC was shown an $850,000 budget for the race and said it looked reasonable.
10. "There are things [the DCCC] could have done that wouldn't have cost money," but they didn't do them. Things like blast emails, for instance.
11. The DCCC was urged by Gov. Kaine, Bobby Scott and others to get involved in this race, but the DCCC "dropped the ball."
12. One person commented: "It's a sad day for me as a Democrat when the national party won't come in here and fight. How can we turn these districts blue?"
13. The Forgit campaign had mail, ads designed and ready to go "in hopes that [the DCCC] would get their act together."
14. The DPVA and local committees did a "great" job, it's definitely not their fault. There also was excellent political support from state leaders.
15. The bottom line: Although Philp had a great profile/bio for the district and "met the conditions [set by the DCCC], they still didn't come."
The DPVA would like to thank everyone who came out to help us with Philip Forgit's campaign. There were certainly a lot of people helping within the First District. But, as a show of how much Democrats all across the state wanted to see Philip win this seat, we had contributions from people across the Commonwealth! Those contributions came in the form of checks, volunteer efforts and even understanding when we sent DPVA staff to go down for an entire month and help with Philip's campaign. In particular, our Field Director Dan Kelly did a wonderful job serving as Phil's Campaign Manager, and DPVA Deputy Finance Director, Jamie Nolan took over fundraising for the Forgit campaign. Even Democrats at the national level pitched in, with the DCCC paying for much needed tools like polling.When we issued the call for help, you- Virginia Democrats- answered! THAT is why we continue to win in this state. We were not as successful as we would have liked to have been in this race. We all went in understanding that it would be difficult. But the DPVA is not discouraged because Virginia Democrats always answer the call and step up to the plate! We know that people all around the state- Democrats, Independents and Republicans alike- are hungry for a change that puts this country back on the right track. We will continue to come out, show up and work to make sure that change happens in the coming election year!
Finally, we have to thank Gov. Tim Kaine, Gov. Mark Warner and Sen. Jim Webb for their efforts. They contributed money, time and energy in this race. But none of the successes we've seen in recent years could have been achieved without YOUR help.
Again... thank you!
Let me just say this: If you want your money to go to local candidates, donate to local campaigns. Not the DCCC.
I do not give donations to the DCCC because they are notoriously bad strategists. I'd rather donate directly to the campaigns i want to support.
Now, the DNC, on the other hand, with their 50-state strategy, and their forward-thinking Chairman, that's another story. I am a monthly sustaining giver to them.
Doesn't change anything, of course.
THIS IS RIDICULOUS. I'm furious.
Can anyone make that threat with their name on it- and link me to somewhere that shows they gave to the DCCC?
The key to this race, really, was dismal turnout. 16%!!! A true grassroots movement to get out the vote would have been more successful than lots of DCCC cash, but on the heels of a GA election, there was just too much fatigue in the electorate.
Let's face it, if Forgit needed the money to win and couldn't raise it locally, maybe that's a sign that the electorate (you know, the people) wanted Whitman. That's how democracy works. It's sometimes hard for us Democrats to come to grips with the fact that some people actually choose to vote Republican.
A true grassroots movement to get out the vote would have been more successful
I think that, when you're faced with overwhelmingly stacked districts such as this, the key to any challenge by the other party is coming up with a truly engaging, inspiring, and perhaps even off the reservation candidate (think Paul Hackett).
Anyone want to tell me that was the case here?
Yikes, I hope that wasn't an insult, because I might have been insulted myself!
You know, there is some truth in what you're saying. But the problem I have is that much of the DCCC strategy is "save the money for the 'electable' candidates"--code words for their favorite corporatist Democratic candidates...
It's too bad a great candidate like Mr. Forgit didn't register to the DCCC to be at least worth an investment of maybe $250,000...that's certainly something they could afford at this point, and would not have had much impact on the national readiness for 2008...
Doug, I thought you were smarter than that, man. $250,000 wouldn't have won that race, and you know it. Why just burn it all on a race you can't win?
1. "We haaaaate the DCCC."
2. "We cannot win without them."
That's what's really bothersome about this discussion for me. By making it about the DCCC, we ignore and even invalidate the grassroots efforts that could potentially make this a more-competitive district with a little groundwork. Rather than talk about solutions to a systemic problem (specifically, that Democrats keep losing here and we haven't found a way to reduce the margins enough to make it competitive) we're basically surrendering and saying that we will never win here or anywhere--because we can't trust the DCCC.
One other point I'd like to make is that you are totally blowing Kaine's comment out of proportion. Governor Kaine may have lobbied the DCCC for support, but he has also been in the position where he had to tell Democratic candidates in races that weren't going to win "no." Go to his committee's finance reports and look at who is receiving a ton of money and who isn't. You're going to find a common thread, and the name of that thread is "competitive."
The DCCC has egg on their face any way you look at it.
1. We haven't run anything resembling a credible campaign in most of these precincts since 2005, and that candidate (Governor Kaine) still lost substantially. Why does this matter? Because we don't have any ground organization. We don't know who our voters are, we haven't put the legwork into identifying democratic voters recently, and as a consequence, we have no idea who we're supposed to go talk to in order to get them to turnout and vote. You're looking at a one month window; I'm looking at a 2 year window between 2006 and 2007, when Webb's ground game was weak here, when O'Donnell's ground game was weak here, and when we didn't even have candidates running in most of the precincts for state leg races.
We've had two years to build on the work Kaine's campaign put into winning those precincts, and we dropped the ball. You think the DCCC can do in 30 days what we didn't do over the course of two years?
2. You keep talking about what a great guy Forgit is, how much the DCCC sucks, and about how $850,000 is relatively chump change. What I don't hear you talking about are voters, and if you're talking about what it takes to win elections but you're not talking about voters, you're automatically wrong. The DCCC does not decide elections. The candidates don't decide elections. The policies and the issues don't decide elections. The voters decide elections, and the voters in this district have been pretty gosh darned consistent in rejecting Democrats. Thowing $850,000 into the District when we don't even have a very good idea of which voters are the Democratic voters (because we didn't put in the legwork earlier -- see point 1) is not going to win an election. For that matter, neither is calling the DCCC's press secretary. The amount of time RK readers spent phone-banking the DCCC for cash would have been far better spent phone-banking the people who actually matter in elections: the voters.
That's how you build a party.
Because we don't have any ground organization. We don't know who our voters are, we haven't put the legwork into identifying democratic voters recently, and as a consequence, we have no idea who we're supposed to go talk to in order to get them to turnout and vote.
Since moving to the 1st District (Fredericksburg area) from Northern Virginia, what you've described is what I have seen here. I joined the local committee and absolutely nothing was being done to elect any Democratic candidates. I and others begged the leadership to let us do precinct work and organize our county but were told we could not. I wrote handbooks for new members (the leaders weren't even sure was districts fell in their county), established databases for potential contributions, developed a detailed Plan of Action for the upcoming year's committee work, and on and on and it all got deep-sixed. I left out of disgust and disappointment. So I know where you are coming from in your assessment of not being able to elect a candidate....1st District Democrats don't know who the Democrats are here. It is pitiful.
Please don't be upset with what I've said (didn't say anything about $850,000 was needed....someone else said that....and I never said he was a great guy...that must have been someone else too). All I've contended is -- don't run a candidate if you aren't prepared to give him/her money. And don't ask volunteers to work on a lost cause, pretending that all is well. I made calls for Forgit but never dreamed, knowing what disarray the Democratic Party is in in this area, he'd have a chance to win.
On the otherhand, the Republicans network very effectively, communicate really well, and have a great website here in Spotsylvania.
In 2005 I spent almost 6 months (pretty much full time) working for Chuck Feldbush in the 88th District race in 2005 and I don't even live in his district. It was like pulling teeth to get any of the 3 committees that represent that district to volunteer time for phone banking, etc. Two of the committees basically refused to help.
Bottom line, I agree with you.
Let's stop looking for people to blame and start looking for opportunities to organize.
I think Forgit running with or without DCCC support is an outstanding thing because it means we at least had an opportunity to go talk to voters and figure out who from our previous campaigns is still supporting us. It frankly does not matter whether or not the DCCC gave money to him; the fact that we sent volunteers out with survey sheets is a step in the right direction, win, lose, or draw.
In 2008, we will have an opportunity with Gov. Warner's campaign to reach out and talk to voters in the district to identify who is supporting Warner and similar Virginia Democrats. That will be a huuuuge help. Hopefully we will also have some statewide Democratic candidates in 2009 who don't make the same mistake Webb's folks made in 2006 and will instead put a solid ground campaign into this district. Make no mistake, Dianne: the difference between Webb's numbers in VA1 versus Kaine's numbers in VA1 is the difference between a razor thin plurality victory (Webb) and a comfortable victory where people actually get to start celebrating in Richmond after the polls close. We cannot afford to continue ignoring the state of affairs in VA1 any more than we can afford to ignore Fairfax or Norfolk or Henricho or Roanoke.
Now is not the time to assign blame. Instead, let's move forward together and start building better Democratic margins in the Virginia's First District now, so that we can ensure better Democratic performance around the Commonwealth tomorrow.
It really is too much for a small number of people who want change to effect change in a large District when you are faced with powerful opposition. Heck, there are 1st District party officials who give to Republicans!!! So it's not surprising to hear a local Chair say "well this is just a Republican District".
It really is like shoveling...well you know.
It would be good for all Virginia if those who think the 1st District needs to shape up to: pitch in, ask the DPVA to focus more resources to help the 1st District organize (do precinct work [not just "man" the polls on election day...they think that is really important!!!; do outreach to the community including projects to help the community; register voters; id Dems, etc.], ask the DPVA to strengthen the Party Plan to ensure that committees don't just languish (saying they are entities unto themselves...), etc. I've worked, complained, blogged, and again worked. Frankly, I've lost a lot of the "fire" I had 3 years ago when I started working for Democrats in this District.
What do you think?
The good news (at least for my sanity) is: I'm not a lawyer. :)
What you've got on your hands is a local or regional problem, and it's going to require a local or regional solution from local or regional volunteers. I think you're going to find that 2008 will be a much easier year to drum up volunteers because who DOESN'T want to volunteer for Mark Warner? We're also going to be a competitive state for the Presidency, so that's another statewide campaign we'll have going on that people can get active on. The beautiful thing about statewide campaigns for party building in Republican-leaning areas is that the candidate can lose in the region but still win statewide if he doesn't lose huge. It's okay to lose in the district by, say, five or six points because we can make that small a loss up elsewhere and still carry the state. Because you'll have better-known candidates and goals that are easier to obtain next year, I believe you will have an easier time finding local activists willing to do their part.
And then we can do the exact same thing in 2009 with our gubernatorial nominee. Again, we don't need to win the district, but if we can shrink the margin, we can have a third consecutive Democratic governor.
The British MP Edmund Burke once wrote "Nobody makes a greater mistake than he who does nothing because he could only do a little." Now is our chance. Take a few days, recharge your batteries, and then you can call the DPVA and ask to talk to someone about solutions. Or call Mark Warner's campaign and ask them how you can get started now.
1,061 out of 22,000 voted in this election in Prince William.
I am thinking the DCCC could of sent some field workers at least to this part of the district for lots of work. That turn out is just heart breaking. And if I was you I would be thinking about a different GOTV strategy.
But it sounds like the DCCC yanked Forgit's chain. And that's inexcusable and unacceptable. The DCCC must be straight with its candidates about what the DCCC thinks and about any changes of mind the DCCC has. It still sucks for Forgit if he was actually recruited by the DCCC and promised a certain level of support and later that promise was broken, but the DCCC has an ethical and practical obligation to let a candidate know STRAIGHTFORWADLY AND HONESTLY if they believe circumstances don't justify delivering on what they previously thought was justified.
There are going to be bad feelings either way, but a little honesty is mitigating and has less fallout later. As it is, this is the sort of thing that if word spreads can hamper the DCCC's efforts next year, not just in fundraising but in maintaining healthy relationships with our candidates.
I expect every other Republican in this state will be doing the same.
It's pretty absurd, sure ... but when you can't match the Repub media push because the DCCC doesn't give a shit .... then a fine electable candidate loses big. Turn out was an issue sure .... however our chances were actually much better given the low turn out .... but fliers never came .... the CASE for FORGIT was never made beyond the confines of this and a few other friendly websites.
The DCCC was negligent in this race. They didn't need to spend $800K ... but $200K or $300K strategically timed and placed could have made a difference.
Some radio ads would have made a difference .... if not in the eventual outcome of this race .... at least it would have made a difference for the party as a whole. It would have signaled that we have outstanding candidates and we will fight for them and the principals they project.
BLAST the DCCC!! They need a WAKE UP CALL!
Actually, that's exactly what they would've needed to spend. The campaign said so. They need $850,000. And if that's what it takes to win, why throw in $200,000? Just to keep it closer? You don't get any points for close, my friend. You either win or you lose. And if you're positive you're going to lose, why toss $200,000 into the grave with the campaign?
Things didn't go the way you hoped, people. But seriously, this is a ridiculous case of scapegoating.
Do you really want to know why we lost? It has nothing to due with the DCCC, I'm afraid. If only it were that simple. No, we lost because the GOP nominated a strong candidate in a heavily gerrymandered district. So instead of trying to scapegoat the DCCC, how about we accept the truth and realize that we need fair redistricting if we're ever going to win in the first?
Now, in my opinion, if Phil needed $850,000 to win, he should have had a plan in place to raise that himself as well, instead of expecting to be given it all from the DCCC. But he should have been able to enlist people like Kaine, Warner, and Webb to help raise well over $500,000, and hope for a more reasonable investment from DCCC.
But, in the end, you are right--the district simply doesn't have the right numbers for a Democratic win in its current configuration, without both incredible efforts and a highly inspirational candidate.
Phil Forgit deserves all of our thanks and admiration for putting himself out there and fulfilling his duty to American democracy in the one of the highest manners possible--engaging in a bid for elective office is one of the highest forms of patriotic service.
Having said that, the conditons of this race made for a good opening for a Democrat with Forgit's experience as a person - not as a politician ... the best scenario you could get.
But people didn't get to know Phil via the media. Wittman isn't anything special at all - he's just a run of the mill small town Republican pol. But his name was in the newspapers (eclipsing Phils). Robo calls by Laura Bush - let me repeat that ....Laura Bush Robo calls were made several times in the run to the election. At least 5 flavors of mailings were made in Wittman's behalf.... and I think he even got a televison spot or two.
NOTHING for Forgit who as a person has everything one could vote for. Family man, decorated Iraq vet and award winning teacher .... a demographic that is the first district, save for one thing .... He's a Democrat!!
$1 Million spent might not have gotten him a win .... but a couple hundred thousand would have been well spent projecting an image of the types of people the Democratic Party represents and promotes.
The Republicans present Democrats as Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton .... Divisive figures like it or not. We should have at least raised the bullshit flag on that .... and shouted out ... HEY we're the party of VETERANS - The party of TEACHERS - the party most interested in the welfare of FAMILIES.
$300K is chump change in the DCCC scheme of things ... win or lose spending that money to project the Forgit image would have been wise and well spent.
So again I say BLAST THE DCCC .... they deserve it.
The bottom line is that volunteers in the 1st CD have just lost a lot of momentum and heart. Potential Democratic 1st District candidates won't put their toes in the water for sure now and 1st CD Democratic volunteers can have a lot more time on their hands now because they know that the establishment has written off this District including the state senatorial and delegate districts that fall in this area.
And while I can't speak for other volunteers, I certainly didn't head over and help out because of any DCCC promise. I did it because I truly believe that Philip deserved my help. To be perfectly honest, I never expected a dime from the DCCC.
Steve
Kaine Rebuffed by DCCCGov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) said today he's not sure why the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee didn't invest large amounts of money in Democrat Philip Forgit's unsuccessful campaign in the 1st Congressional District.
[...]
"I talked to the DCCC and I look at Virginia as my one and only and they are looking at 50 states in trying to make decisions," Kaine said. "They had elections in other places...they felt like they needed to invest in. They did invest some dollars into Forgit's campaign, but I don't pretend to understand why they make the decisions they make."
~
In this end, this is a lot of huffing and puffing over nothing. If you want local control over campaign money, contribute locally. If you want candidates whose candidacies don't depend on outside help, recruit better candidates.
The end.
Looks like you worked hard for Fogit, I respect and appreciate that, but he lost and lost big. You can try and nail that entirely on the DCCC, but that's just ridiculous. The end, indeed.
Fact is, Dan's right. Take a step back from the passion and the raging against the dying of the light, and it's really tough to hate on the DCCC and Chris Van Hollen (if he's indeed running the show behind the scenes) for staying out of this race. The DCCC is part incumbency protection racket, smaller part challenger funder, but all establishment, insider dough and strategy.
Others have stated this, but it's true -- if you don't like it, and would rather see your hard earned duckets go somewhere else, then make up your own ActBlue account and page and go to town. My meager contributions go to people I support and would like to see in Congress, and I have yet to give $ to an incumbent. But that's just me. Besides the cloying emails from tools like Paul Begala and James Carville, one reason I will never give to the DCCC is they spend too much cash propping up clowns like Jim Barrow, Melissa Bean, Nick Lampson, etc. But, hey, so be it.
Would you rather see the DCCC give money to Phil Forgit's campaign this year, or have them potentially drop cash in VA-10, VA-5, or VA-2? I'm for the latter. Please don't get me wrong -- I fully believe in a 50 state, 435ish district strategy, but you can't do it all at once. VA-01 is R+8.9; VAs-06 and -07 are both R+11. These are all very difficult districts to win -- I hope we fight 'em all and find leaders in these districts, but you could make the argument that VA-01 is the least worth the effort, as it's the district most likely to radically change configurations in 2011.
VA-11 is R+1 and will flip next year; I think that's a near certainty. Suprisingly, VAs-10 and -04 are the next two most Democratic districts, both R+5. VA-05 is R+5.6; VA-02 is R+5.9.
I'd rather resources go towards VA-10 and VA-05, where we have credible challengers, and maybe towards VA-04 and VA-02 if the right candidates emerge.
I would love to see DfA, the DNC, and the DPVA come up with a plan for figuring out how to be competitive in the current VA-01, especially in Stafford and Fauquier, where we continue to get murdered.
My $.02.
But your most useful comment, I think, is your last paragraph. Include Spotsylvania in that group. I meet Democrats frequently who didn't think there was EVEN a Democratic Committee in Spotsylvania!
I think a very good argument can be made for Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania/Stafford/Fauquier/Caroline anchoring its own CD after the next round of redistricting. We need to figure out a way to start a grassroots movement to better organize and get new leadership into these types of areas where we're struggling like now. Those areas are uphill, but we were obviously very competitive in the 27th and 28th Senate districts, and Ed Houck holds the 17th.
I think it makes the most sense down where y'all are at to focus toward building some candidates for the '09 Delegates races -- we don't own ONE delegate seat in any of the above localities. The unfortunate fact is that the Republicans still control the very outer exurbs and more rural areas, and that, generally speaking, they are more disciplined when it comes to voting in every election. We need to build an infrastructure and find ways to get Democrats out to vote.
It's good, some of it is no longer valid (Prevail is gone) but the basics of organizing and precinct operations are there. The DPVA should be congratulated on writing such a comprehensive manual.
An interesting idea would be to get in touch with the folks at DfA and/or the DNC, and see about starting up our own DfVa as the organizing mechanism so that we don't have to restart from scratch each election period under the auspices of various campaigns.
Anyway, keep at it, and don't let 'em get you down down there.
I'd love to see a similar effort statewide, just hopefully w/o duplicating work that's already been done.
Me, I'm a guy who graduated from York High, when it was still a segregated high school. I think about how impossible the Civil Rights movement looked when Martin Luther King said, "We shall overcome." What is it that great old slogan says, "The impossible just takes a bit longer."
It's time to get off our butts, people. A battle is not the war.
John McCreery
York County Voter
Yokohama, Japan
Forgit has the offices and leftover resources already in place. He should just keep it going for 2008. Then the DCCC will probably come to...and hopefully so will the voters.
If Forgit decides to take his candidacy into 2008, I will continue to support him.
Thanks!
Steve
We in the northern part of the district are in a nearly media-free zone, maybe that helped pull the spikes from the track.
Lazy, indifferent voters can't be energized into action, no matter what.
Next time, get better, more interested voters.
That district is red, demographically. In a Presidential cycle, a district like that is going to go demographically R, no way around it. All the money in the world can barely help that when 50% of people vote. So say the DCCC had put their all into this campaign. Forgit wouldn't have been able to hold the seat in November. So from their national perspective, they would have just dumped $1/2M+ to pick up 1 seat for 11 months.
Forgit was a great candidate. I hope he has a bright future in politics. But if we're going to critique the DCCC, we have to do so rationally. I have yet to hear anyone suggest a rational course of action that they could have taken that would have helped here.
DanG is absolutely right. As is Ben. If you want to help national politics, give to the DCCC. If you want to help Forgit, give to Forgit. The DCCC did exactly what they're paid to do, and we can't expect more of them than that.