VA-01 results open thread

By: Rob
Published On: 12/11/2007 8:09:45 PM

So, unlike a few weeks back when I was monitoring dozens of races, I only have to watch the results come in for one race tonight.  Pundits are predicting a blow out for Wittman, so maybe this will be over quickly.  Or maybe Forgit will hold his own and we'll see a nailbiter 'til the end.  Let's find out...

Results are here and Wittman has started with a big lead. I'll post updates if things get interesting.

UPDATE: Still a blowout for Wittman with 40% reporting.  This one is over.  I'll post final results when they come in.

UPDATE: Final tally will be around 62% to 36%.  Disappointed that the spread wasn't closer -- the Democrats down there have some serious work to do going forward.

UPDATE by Lowell: Final results are Wittman  42,767 (60.72%) and Forgit 26,275 (37.30%).  Narain got 1,310 (1.86%).  Turnout was around 16%.

Comments



This one looks like it is done (jiacinto - 12/11/2007 8:32:11 PM)
Whitman is winning in places like Hampton City and Caroline County, which tend to support Democrats. Forgit can't make that up based on the outstanding counties. Time to monitor the OH-5 results.  


On the bright side... (DanG - 12/11/2007 8:33:43 PM)
We get to see the triumphant return of Albert Pollard!  Hopefully we can get some fair redistricting, and Pollard can get that seat he should've won in the fall in 2011!


My response to that is... (Chris Guy - 12/11/2007 9:41:04 PM)


Look on the Bright Side? (TMSKI - 12/11/2007 11:16:08 PM)
Dan,

My friend ... there is no bright side. Albert Pollard is a great guy and a potential congressman let alone state delegate.... But if the DCCC is so negligent as to not spend a dime to get the word out for an excellent candidate in a winnable situation WHY SHOULD ANYONE BOTHER TO RUN AT ALL???

There were 5 mailings or more to Forgit's one which I receieved. 5 to 1.

Wittman ran against Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton ... no shit that was on one of the mailings. And the DCCC did nothing, NADA, zip - ZERO.

In a district that it heavily military an Iraq war veteran should do much, much better .... except nobody had a clue as to who he was. That's call Media and it cost money a school teacher doesn't have.

Albert Pollard will be lucky to re-win the seat .... if he does then we can say it's a "sunny" day.



Define "winnable situation" (DanG - 12/12/2007 12:16:40 AM)
I think the results today showed us that the first is just too red.

And Shawn said somewhere Forgit would've needed $800,000?  It's not worth spending all of that on just one race.  After looking at the results today, I think the DCCC made a good call.  The eleventh and second districts could use that money more efficiently and effectively against Davis and Drake.

I'm trying to look at the silver lining.  Pollard will be the favorite in the special election.  After all, he won the district in his senate race just a few months ago.



The NRCC just spent 16% of their cash (Chris Guy - 12/12/2007 12:30:20 AM)
on 2 safe GOP seats. And they already had a fraction of what the DCCC had in the bank prior to that.

They are in worse shape than they were yesterday, period.

 



warwick pre. in n news (lgb30856 - 12/11/2007 9:04:44 PM)
122 for whitman, 110 for forgit, 3 for narain.


5% turn out in Prince William (totallynext - 12/11/2007 9:32:22 PM)
What a disgrace to democracy.  5% freakin turn out?  1,061 people voted out of 22,000.  What a joke.

The weather was fine,  What the hell happened?



No wonder why the DCCC (Lowell - 12/11/2007 9:35:29 PM)
didn't play here.


OK so now I can say it the DCCC was never going to play (Shawn - 12/11/2007 9:50:29 PM)
Not to say money was the sole determining factor but...
we estimated the minimum cost to have a real shot at winning to be $800,000 ... and then, almost more important, over $3,000,000 to defend in '08  

Lowell, I did appreciate seeing RK try to get some attention for VA-01  Thanks!
 



no matter... (coffeyd - 12/11/2007 9:53:41 PM)
No matter how optimistic I was I was realistic enough to keep this in the back of my mind. so I'm not too crushed.

However, I don't think its an excuse for the DCCC to just ignore places like this. Living in probably the second most historically conservative district in Virginia I would honestly expect that the DCCC want to chip away a little bit of the Republican strong hold here. Especially in the Northern part of the district where people from more Democratic Fairfax have started moving down into Spotsy and Caroline. But I haven't had the option to be represented by a Democrat/Progressive on the State or Federal side like ever (Despite Webb of course). I'm excited that Forgit even ran. Just so I could have an option.

Orrock, Mcdoogle, and now Whittman...I'm so excited.

I'm sure he'll be just another Republican puppet who will vote against Middle America, Children, and actually doing whats best for our Troops. How Exciting.



Have not met Phil Forgit... (cycle12 - 12/11/2007 10:17:29 PM)
...but from what I could see and read about him here and elsewhere, Forgit appears to be an excellent Democratic candidate who has a promising future in Virginia politics, and I hope he stays active.

Thanks!

Steve



Dems will lose in Ohio, too (DanG - 12/11/2007 10:23:45 PM)
I'm calling it for Latta in Ohio.

Again, this isn't that big of a victory for the GOP.  There were not supposed to be competetive.  They are heavily Republican seats.  



Ohio Election Results Link: http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enr/f?p=152:5:0 (cycle12 - 12/11/2007 10:31:49 PM)
Thanks, Dan; agreed...

Steve



Lowell (leftofcenter - 12/11/2007 10:32:45 PM)
you did a great job. It was an uphill battle.
We think that the GOP is on the downslide with all the wingnuts but unfortunately there's still a bunch of people out there that vote or these clowns. I just don't get it.

I hope Virginia isn't doomed forever.



61-37 (Johnny Longtorso - 12/11/2007 10:53:02 PM)
At least he did better than Shawn O'Donnell...


Didn't see Forgit's total exceeding 81,083 votes (JohnB - 12/11/2007 11:43:05 PM)
It's good you're trying to pull something a little positive out of the results.  


Why Democrats should not be overconfident (Teddy - 12/11/2007 10:55:33 PM)
for 2008. Don't count our chickens before they are hatched. We progressives see what a disaster the Republican Party has been for the country, but their money and propaganda machine is olympic class when it comes to elections, and it is not going to be easy to overcome, no matter how much wherewithall the Democrats bring to the table. These victories in Virginia and Ohio will be a big boost to them and the pundits will say so, too, and before you know it the popular wisdom will be that the do-nothing Democrats are still the underdogs. the spin will be in.


Well said (JohnB - 12/11/2007 11:45:14 PM)
We have a lot of work to do in Virginia


This state has a long ways (Lowell - 12/11/2007 11:47:18 PM)
to go before it gets to "blue."


Phil Forgit statement (Lowell - 12/11/2007 11:17:34 PM)
I'm proud of the work that we did. We fought a great fight.  Today I am proud to be a Virginia Democrat and I have to say how thankful I am for the support I received from our Virginia Democratic leaders as well as local chapters and volunteers across the district. They knew Virginia, they knew me, and they knew this was a historic opportunity worth fighting for.   I'm thankful for the support I received from Governor Kaine, Senator Webb, and Governor Warner.

This wasn't a loss for Virginia Democrats; we weren't able to match the resources that the National Republicans invested in this race.

I will continue to fight to give our men and women in uniform the support and protection they need, to provide our veterans with the benefits and health care they deserve, and to make our schools the best in the country so that America can continue to lead the world for years to come."



The "magic" of redistricting (hereinva - 12/12/2007 9:42:14 AM)
Phil Forgit is an intelligent, articulate candidate with wonderful credentials. One would expect that his result numbers would be higher. Cannot ignore the "magic" of redistricting (gerrymandering)that packs persons of a certain political ilk into a particular geographic area.

The 1st District of VA is a LONG "skinny" district that covers 18 counties. From a campaign logistics stance - its tough- with major population areas in the northern and southern region. But if your political party holds a stronger edge based on its redistricting components- its just a matter of having your "base" show up at the polls- voila Virginia's First Congressional District "R" lock-in.

Redistricting creates "mini" one party "dictatorships" and  negates the concept representative democracy (for D's and R's)

It will be so important to re-visit VA's redistricting process and consider a nonpartisan process.

Here is more on the Iowaprocess.