For once, Speaker Bill Howell (R) makes some decent points, but as usual he then proceeds to go way too far. This time, it's the Metro to Dulles project.
House Speaker William Howell, of Stafford, delivered a bleak assessment of the beleaguered rail project in an editorial board meeting with The Examiner, arguing Dulles rail is "not going to be the panacea they think it is.""It's not going to take one person off the road," Howell said.
Instead, the project may actually worsen traffic in Tysons Corner due to the increases in building density that officials will approve to accompany the line, he said.
As readers of RK know, we have been highly critical of various aspects related to the Metro to Dulles project: the non-competitive bidding, the track record of Bechtel in the Boston "Big Dig," the obstinate opposition to revisiting a tunnel for Tysons Corner, the lack of "sunshine" on the entire project. We also question the cost-benefit ratios here, as do a lot of people, which is one of the main reasons why the project has been held up as long as it has been -- frankly, it's borderline compared to other projects around the country when you look at the number of riders compared to the project's price tag.
So, where does Howell go too far? First, in claiming that it won't take "one person off the road." To the contrary, the Metropolitian Washington Airports Authority (MWAA), admittedly a biased source, estimates that "46,500 new riders will board the Metro extension each day by 2030." Now, even if the number is less than that, it's certainly more than zero, which is what Bill Howell claims.
Second, Howell claims that Metro to Dulles will actually WORSEN Tysons Corner traffic due to increased density. Again, Howell is on to something if the project is built with an "aerial option" in Tysons. In that case, there's not much chance of getting the full "smart growth" benefits -- walkability, liveability -- in Tysons that one could get with a tunnel. However, to claim that increased density in and of itself leads to worse traffic is a wild overstatement. The fact is, there's terrible traffic in low density areas -- it's called "sprawl." And there's excellent traffic flow in high density areas with excellent public transportation, bike trails, sidewalks, etc. -- case in point, Arlington.
The bottom line here is that this project is borderline, but it's not black or white as Howell makes out. Do it right -- with a tunnel, with competitive bidding to get the best value for the taxpayers of Northern Virginia -- and it could be a big positive for the region. Do it wrong -- the way we're currently heading, unfortunately -- and it could be a huge net negative. So, for perhaps the first and last time on RK, I say "listen to Bill Howell" on this one, because he makes some valid points. Just don't listen too much when he goes into la-la land.
In that case, there's not much chance of getting the full "smart growth" benefits -- walkability, liveability -- in Tysons that one could get with a tunnel.
Even this is a bit of an overstatement. The Tysons Task force is talking about walkable corridors that are offset by about a block from Rt 7.
The Dulles Access Road works fine (when you can get to it).
If we have rail dollars to spend, they should be spent first in the places that will best benefit from rail in NOVA. The US 1/Springfield Cooridor needs it NOW because of BRAC and has the higher density to support ridership.
The I-395 coridoor is another place that could use it or light rail.
It's all about priorities.
This project was trying to serve two masters
1. Rail to Dulles (Better solution express rail or BRT)
2. Attempting to transform Tysons into Arlington (Better solution circulator bus routes, new road grid, traffic light synchronization)
Instead we have metro to dulles. The inherent dichotomy of these two seperate goals has doomed this project.
Finally, as currently proposed this project WILL increase traffic and congestion in the region. The most widely cited document for this is the Enviromental impact study.
If you need any more proof, just look at the about-face of the WestGroup. These guys are most of the money behind the Tysons Tunnel organization - whose purpose is to push for a tunnel (duh). But when Tysons Tunnel went the extra step of taking legal action, WestGroup quickly disassociated themselves. Why? Simple, the legal action would throw another wrench in the process making it more likely that the FTA will pull funding, which means no rail at all. Meaning Westgroup loses billions in potential profits.
I said it yesterday, it's looking more and more like this project isn't about improving transportation, but instead a money grab by a handful of already rich people. At our expense.
Many of us see this rail project as a land use project that will benefit big developers (and small) in Tysons. To get validation of that statement, go to Connolly's campaign contribution. Why on earth would a developer who holds less than 3 acres in Tysons give Connolly over $30,000?
Going back to the beginning, even the data reported in the DEIS reports state that congestion will not be relieved.
Even a member of the Million Dollar consulting team said Tysons will be congested....get used to it.
Even the Tysons Task Force who are holding back the real development density numbers for the 1700 acres should have some concern. At the moment there is about 48 million sq feet of development in Tysons. I believe there was an article in the Connection several weeks ago that referenced 125,000,000 million sq feet that is on the table.
I don't care how many cups of the tainted tea about Smart Growth you drink, the residential is going to be so high that me, you, maybe even Lowell, and some other bloggers won't be able to afford the "affordable housing" in Tysons. At one time Park Crest was offering a 700 foot loft for almost 500K plus $350 monthly condo fees."
Many of us continue to sit on our hands watching the few scarce dollars go to project that only serves the rich to make them richer. You and I will still be sitting in clogged Rt 7 and Rt 123. It is not too late to speak up. Vienna is going to be crushed between Tysons, Dunn Loring, and Vienna Metro West.
If we wanted a real transit system, we would have a rail line that goes down the corridor and let the developers in Tysons put in their circulator system.
In other words- no one off the road overall.
Please. If you're looking for a great road or transportation master, it ain't Mr. Bill.