Mark my words, if he gets the Republican nomination - and he might! -- he's going to be trouble.

...his issues page makes clear that he is as hard right as they come.

During some of the years that Huckabee was governor (1999-2003) before he had his weight loss epiphany.  He comes across now as a very calm and nice guy.  He's not.  He's got some major conservative views and will push very hard for them.  He's going to fool a lot of people with his easy going manner, but he's a social conservative in the mold of Dubya and George Macacca Allen.

When Huckabee ran for re-election, his wife Janet also ran for Sec. of State!  They were planning to take total control!  During the time the Governor's mansion was renovated, they brought in a triple wide and put it on the grounds behind the "mansion" to live in for several months.  These people are total kooks and we should consider them dangerous.

on a radio interview the other day, and she sounded like a Stepford Wife.  Brrrrrrrr.

did you live in AR? Proud Hendrix Grad myself ('04)...

KD

I think Hillary would crush him in 40 states, including Arkansas.

But I can't see him getting the nomination, anyway. It really comes down to Giuliani and Romney in my mind, and I hope it's Romney because Giuliani is a dangerous lunatic.

reading this.

It's an interesting data point, and I like Beeton's work in general over there, but it's really just one anecdote.

I understand why you think his combination of authentic social conservatism (he's actually believable and appears to have real convictions) and some kind of anti-war platform from the right is powerful, but I just don't see how he can win the nomination with that platform. The Republican candidates and primary voters are bound and determined to own this war, and to own torture, and warrantless spying, etc. I still can't see anything that stops them from going over that cliff, but I'll enjoy the schadenfreude. The minority anti-war right is going to fracture between Paul and Huckabee, leaving the nomination to one of the war-mongers.

But even if Huckabee made it to the general with his somewhat authentic outsider message, his views are too doctrinaire right (as you linked to) to attract anywhere near even 45% of the vote, much less 50+%. I think he'd win Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, maybe Tennessee, Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, and that's about it.

Giuliani is really the only candidate I see as dangerous to any of the Dem nominees, but only because our lazy establishment press won't adequately expose what a proto-fascist he is.

Maybe this is colored by the fact that I know Huckabee is as far right as they come -- but I thought the TV ad was juvenile and reflective of someone out of his depth intellectually and experience-wise.  He came across like a hayseed to me.  Yes, moderately amusing, but something that will end up damaging him.  I think he's scary to the GOP party professionals, too, as an unknown quantity.  I will be surprised if Huckabee is around after the first few primaries.  The GOP does not like fringe candidates generally --

http://pollingreport...  He seems to be at about 8%.  He's come up from nothing, but 8% is not that much of a threat.  The early primaries will soon be upon us.

The latest America Research Group poll has it:

Iowa
Romney: 26%
Huckabee: 24%
Giuliani: 11%
Thompson: 11%
McCain: 10%

Also, ARG adds that "Among registered Republicans saying they will definitely participate in the Republican caucuses on January 3, Mike Huckabee is at 24%, Mitt Romney is at 23%, Fred Thompson is at 13%, Rudy Giuliani is at 11%, and John McCain is at 10%."

That's right, Huckabee's either tied or ahead in Iowa according to ARG.

is extensive among independents, in my opinion--- it's sort of a sleeper... the humor evident in this parody of an ad is interesting (Aldai Stevenson's humor worked against him, but that was then) and shows a certain disdain for the whole political process as engaged in at this time (especially by all the triangulating and earnestly cautious). A lot of voters have a similar disdain, and are attracted to someone who tosses politics off as being not much of importance.  How long will such an attraction last before the voters' desire for a little more gravitas kicks in? I think Huckabee will flip to gravitas when appropriate.  The man's smart. And, I suspect, ruthless.

People LIKE Huckabee. He's refreshing. He "tells it like it is." Whatever. I know Democrats who like him. Hell, I like him (particularly after that hilarious ad.) People like him in SPITE of his ultra-conservative views.

I think this is the guy to watch. I'm afraid that Republican voters will get sick of the top contenders slugging it out on each other, and decide to go for the "other guy." And if he really does win Iowa, the rest of the candidates are toast.

I know it's not exactly the same, but look at what happened to the Democrats in Iowa in '04: Dean and Gephardt were slinging the dirt at each other, and suddenly Kerry comes out of nowhere and wins. And once he wins Iowa, it is pretty much over; the rest fall like ninepins. Could we not have the same scenario this year?

 

Let us not also forget the other more salient point of Presidential Politics - Governors beat Senators.

Now, this is obviously just a trend and not a rule.  But I think Huckabee has a good shot of winning Iowa.  The real question is will winning Iowa translate into more wins down the line?  Huckabee isn't much of a presence in other states from what I've seen.

I thought this ad was hilarious, but I'm familiar with ChuckFacts, and I've always had a fondness for Chuck Norris even if we don't agree politically. 

And given Huckabee's personal transformation and his commitment to it, one cannot help but have some respect for him.  Were all of us so capable of personal discipline.

The real impact of a Huckabee win in Iowa may be a diminishing of Mitt Romney's star.  This may aid Guliani in the end if he can overtake Mitt in New Hampshire.

Matusleo
Ut Prosim

The race is literally wide open

Anything else is speculation

There is a legitamate chance for each of the five to win the nomination and an equally good chace they will fail.

With that being said it wouldn't be a political blog without a couple things to watch for

Romney is at his ceiling
Huckabee is a true wild card the negative press started this week so expect wide fluctuations
Giuliani just started ads expect numbers to rise (hedging bets on the win big later strategy)
Thompson is in freefall but can still be saved by the south
McCain has all his eggs in New Hampshire (praying for Hillary and Huckabee to win in Iowa)

My question would be: Does this apparent Huckabee link between border security and hunting mean that he thinks there should be a migrant season?

This is a heavy weight for Huckabee.  I'll refer you to two stories -- one on Hullabaloo and a reprint of a story Murray Waas wrote for the Arkansas Times.  Waas' story is meandering and hard to read -- the one on Hullabaloo has a more condensed version.  But it's good to read both because Waas brings out a lot of facts.

http://digbysblog.bl...

http://www.arktimes....

In short there is a belief that Huckabee responded to right wingers who wanted a guy with a long rap sheet freed -- the rape victim, a cheerleader in a small town, was a distant cousin of Bill Clinton.  Of course anyone can make a bad call on such an issue, but the evidence collected by Waas shows that Huckabee was not interested in reviewing the case -- he just wanted the guy free.  Indeed, Huckabee had major misconceptions about the case.

Huckabee is the most likable of the Republican candidates, perhaps the only one except for McCain that you might want to have a beer with. 

The ad may be juvenile, but don't forget that a pro wrestler got elected governor of MN and an action movie star got elected governor of CA. 

All of which leads to the burning question -- who will win the coveted Hulk Hogan endorsement???