CBS News and the New York Times are out with a new poll of Iowa and New Hampshire. The key results:*Among Dems, it's basically a three-way tie in Iowa, with Clinton at 25%, Edwards at 23% and Obama at 22%.
*Second choice among Dems in Iowa is Edwards with 25%, Obama with 24%, and Clinton with 16%. This could prove important because of the way the caucuses work.
*Among Dems, Clinton leads NH with 37%, followed by Obama at 22% and Edwards at 9%.
*Only about half of Dems have definitely made up their minds, indicating considerable potential for volatility.
*Among Republicans, Romney leads in Iowa with 27%, followed by Huckabee at 21% and Giuliani at 15%. Everyone else is in single digits.
*Second choice for Republicans in Iowa is basically a 5-way tie, with Giuliani and Huckabee at 17%, Romney at 15%, McCain and Thompson at 13%.
*Among Republicans, Romney leads in NH with 34%, followed by McCain and Giuliani at 16% each, and everyone else in single digits.
*Even fewer Republicans have made up their minds than Dems. Lots of potential volatility here!
In sum, it looks to me like Romney's definitely the man to beat on the Republican side right now in Iowa and NH, although Huckabee, Guiliani and McCain are showing significant strength. For Democrats, Iowa appears to be a tossup right now, with NH a two-way race between Clinton and Obama. This should be a fascinating horse race to watch on both sides.
Among Repubs, I agree that Romney's the guy to beat. I never thought that Giuliani would prevail and I frankly think that Repubs would have to be absolutely, pathologically insane to nominate someone with such a 747 cargo-hold full of baggage.
Huckabee is the only Republican candidate who you might actually want to have over for dinner some time, and I think he will continue to rise, for his likability if nothing else.