With the state elections over, obviously we political junkies here at RK get no breather -- we have only 33 days until the special election to fill the Congressional seat of the late JoAnn Davis in CD-1.
I thought I'd do a quick analysis of where exactly the voters in CD-1 are:
I subdivided the district into four areas:
1) Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania/NoVa Exurbs (Stafford, Fauquier, PWC)
2) Between the James and York Rivers: Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, Williamsburg, York County, James City County
3) Between the York and the Rappahannock Rivers: Caroline, Essex, King & Queen, King William, Middlesex, Matthews, and Gloucester Counties, and
4) Between the Rappahannock and Potomac Rivers: King George, Westmoreland, Richmond, Northumberland, and Lancaster Counties
Over 75% of the registered are located in (1) and (2) -- with 39.4 % located in Fred/Spot/"NoVa" and 36.1 % in Hampton Roads/Williamsburg/York/James City.
Of the remaining approximately 25 % of the population, 15 % total resides in (3) between the York and Rappahannock Rivers, with Gloucester accounting for much of that total.
The counties in (4) account for just around 10 % of the whole, approximately as many voters as are in PWC and Fauquier Counties.
Of the 39.4% in "NoVa", 10 % of the total comes from Fauquier and PWC, with about 29 % of the total coming from Stafford (the single most populous county/municipality in the entire CD), Spotsylvania, and Fredercksburg.
Newport News City, York County, and James City County each account for approximately 10 % of the total population, with Hampton City accounting for about 4 %, and Williamsburg and Poquoson Cities approximately 3.3 % between the two.
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Obviously, winning this district is going to take coordination between the two population centers at the opposite ends of the district. But finding a candidate from Williamsburg (Forgit) or the Fredericksburg area (Hontz) seems the smart way to go. It'll be interesting to see what the 1st District Dems decide tomorrow. Looking forward to hearing the result.
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I got the data from the Virginia SBE website
Here are some more detailed pics of the district:
Northern end of the district
Southern end of the district
Williamsburg area
PWC/Stafford
Fauquier/Stafford
Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania
Hampton/Newport News
In the area between the DC exurbs and Hampton Roads the Democrats are going to have to carry both Caroline and Westmoreland Counties. Both counties supported Kaine and Webb in 2005 and in 2006. They voted for Albert Pollard in his losing race. I think that Pollard also carried Northumberland County, although that is more Republican. It might make sense to figure out which precincts in the 28th Senatorial District supported Kaine, Webb, and Pollard; or, if there aren't precincts that supported all three of them, precincts where they fared 45% of the vote or above. Ralph Northram carried Mathews County in his win over Nick Rerras, although that county is heavily Republican. It might also make sense to see which precincts in Matthews County supported Northram.
Up in the NVA area the key counties are Fredricksburg and Prince William. Kaine and Webb fared very well in both of those counties, while they didn't do well in Stafford. Again it might make sense to find out which precincts in Stafford (if there are any) supported Albert Pollard in his losing race in the 28th Senatorial District.
All in all, however, this is a very Republican district. The problem is that the 3rd district takes in all the Democratic friendly and Black precincts in Hampton Roads. The 2nd takes away Norfolk and Portsmouth, leaving the district with the whiter and more conservative parts of Newport News City and Poquson City. However, for a Democrat to win, he will have to do what I suggested above.