I am seeing enough anecdotally that I would make this no worse than a toss-up.  Among other things, Schultz apparently has a better ground game, and Vogel has taken some recent hits in the press.  Also, there are groups that normally would not endorse a Dem that have endorsed Karen. 

something...

Warner at Winchester Rally: Schultz is the Common-Sense Choice

Governor in Winchester to emphasize the importance of moderate representation

WINCHESTER - Former Governor Mark Warner joined senate candidate Karen Schultz for a Sunday rally in Winchester to highlight Schultz's problem-solving approach for Virginia.

Schultz and Warner spoke before a crowd of over 100  supporters in an afternoon rally at the James Wood Middle School.

"Karen Schultz and I share a vision for moderate leadership that puts progress over partisanship," Warner said. "Virginia needs common-sense, independent leaders like Karen Schultz. We can count on her to tackle transportation and energy issues without being beholden to interests that threaten our way of life, be a true fiscal conservative, and fight for better education. That's why the Valley should elect her on Tuesday."

Warner highlighted Schultz's work as a member of the Virginia School Board Association and as an acclaimed professor at Shenandoah University. Schultz said she was proud to stand with Warner Sunday.

"I'm running for Senate to find moderate, common-sense solutions to some of the toughest issues facing Virginia," said Schultz. "That means cracking down on illegal immigration, securing a sustainable source of funding for transportation, and conserving energy while protecting the Shenandoah Valley.

"You have to know your community to represent it.  As a 30-year dedicated resident, I have raised my family here, run a small business, held the position of Chair of our School Board, and have made my career at Shenandoah University.  I have solid real roots in this community." 

Schultz is running for Senate in the 27th District of Virginia, which encompasses the city of Winchester, all of Frederick and Clarke counties, and portions of Fauquier and Loudoun counties.

For more information, visit Schultz's campaign website: http://www.karenschu...

but given the make up of the district, i'd put a finger on the scale for Vogel.  Schultz should win Winchester, but the rest of the district is just so conservative - especially Frederick Co - that things really have to be going Karen's way if she is going to have a shot. Allen carried Frederick with 62% of the vote.

I'm hearing a lot of folks back home have been turned off by the negative, personal attacks. 

Gotta hand it to Karen, she's running a great campaign and would be a such a great voice in Richmond.  We need more people like her in Richmond.

even Bob Marshall wouldn't endorse her, right?

And even though the district is conservative, it is also not deaf and dumb.  And Mark Warner has appeared several times on her behalf, and his appearance there today should make the front page of the local newspapers I would think.  And as far as I know, Republicans do not have any big names that are as much of a draw in that part of the state.

I think the issue of the Dominion power line land grab also has cut very much in Karen's favor, don't you?  And can't that also swing some votes?

And in general, people are not particular proud of identifying with Republicans on any level right now.

with the conservative folks that really run the show out there.  Remember, he almost lost the primary last cycle.  It took crossover indi's and dems for russ to hold on.

Folks out in the 27th are definitely not deaf and dumb, but voting for a Dem is not easy.  With regard to making the local paper, well the Byrd's (the Byrd machine) still run the local paper out there.  Any good press will likely be countered by another pat on the old back for Vogel from the ed board.

Agreed, the R's have the same brand problems out there - like the rest of the state - but im not sure its enough to make the difference.  Vogel needs to trip up and so far she hasnt. 

I would think her ties to the national party (ergo "Washington insider") and to big energy interests would should cut in Karen's favor... but still... i keep coming back to the place of the 27th is, at the end of the day, a Republican stronghold.  It's definitely growing and changing, but Im not sure by enough to make the difference.

Loudoun is 1/3 of the district, and Karen's going to win there--I'm somewhat certain.  If the margin out of Loudoun and Winchester are enough, Karen will pull it out.

the western side of the district. 

who knows... maybe the power line issue will make all the difference there.

... Which I think says alot about the district. Schultz has to get a huge turnover from Kilgore voters which is difficult-though not impossible at all.

but I'd say it's more like "Leans Dem". When was the last time a Davis lost a race? "Strong" pickup, to me, basically means it's a done deal. When Obama ran against Alan Keyes in Illinois 3 years ago, THAT was a strong pickup opportunity.

What is your evidence about Cooch?  He didn't have very many people out in Pohick today where I went with some other volunteers--none, in fact.

Janet has a much better ground game going, and Cooch is NOT leaning favorite.  You've been swallowing too much of Tribett's kool-aide at the expense of facts.  Oleszek had hundreds of volunteers out there this weekend, and last.

Also, O'Brien viewed as a RINO!!???  ARE YOU INSANE!?  He is ANYTHING BUT and Republicans and Democrats alike, know it all too well.

Other than that (Oleszek-Cooch is a TOSS-UP) I think you got it about right.

Thats why I said "As crazy as it sounds"... O'Brien doesn't flash his right-wing wacko membership card enough- especially when compared to Cooch.

I think the world of Janet and in fact I disagree with most of what Ben has said about that campaign. My thing is that Cooch is just ONE hell of a candidate and has been working constantly  for re-election since his election... When I ask people what they think- Everyone says "In my gut- I think Cooch wins"... But we'll see in 47 hours ;)

Where are these districts located in the state?

Miller's soon-to-be-district is centered in Newport News, Northam's soon-to-be-district is centered in Norfolk, the Smith/Breiner race is in suburban Roanoke, and the rest are in Northern Virginia.

Petersen will defeat Jeannemarie Devolites Davis in a rout that will resemble the Battle of New Orleans. Democrats will turn out to oust JMDD- Independents will turn out to vote for Chap- Moderate Republicans will turn out to vote for Tom Davis while Conservatives will turn out to vote for Chap.
***********************
I just logged on and don't have time to go through the blog notes to see if someone has corrected your mistake.

However, maybe this is why we should not take too much faith in your predictions.

Is Tom Davis in the race.....I am sure that he might be, but his name is not on the ballot.  I don't think.....

Moderate Republicans are turning out to vote for Tom Davis... I really don't want to explain that one- maybe after the election?

ON NOV 7, we will all be waking up to a new Virginia. One, that none of us can imagine.