Updated House Predictions: 6 Days Out

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/31/2007 8:49:57 AM

Here are my updated House of Delegates forecasts:

Likely or Leaning Democratic Pickups
Paul Nichols vs. Faisal Gill in the 51st district (80%-85% chance of Dem. victory)
Margi Vanderhye vs. Dave Hunt  in the 34th district (80%)
Eric Ferguson vs. Charles Poindexter in the 9th district (65%-70%)
Robert "Bobby" Mathieson vs. John Welch in the 21st district (60%-65%)

Tossups
Chris Brown vs. Jeff Frederick in the 52nd district (50%)
Connie Brennan vs. Watkins Abbitt in the 59th district (50%)
William Day vs Scott Lingamfelter in the 31st district (50%)
Adam Tomer vs. Danny Marshall in the 14th district (45%-50%)
Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle in the 83rd district (45%-50%)

Leaning Republican Retention/Possible Upset?
Jeannette Rishell vs. Jackson Miller in the 50th district (45% chance of Dem. upset victory)
Rex Simmons vs. Tim Hugo in the 40th district (40%-45%)
Jay Donahue vs. Tom Rust in the 86th district (40%-45%)
Andy Parker vs. Donald Merricks in the 16th district (40%-45%)
Bill Thomas vs. Anne Crockett-Stark in the 6th district (40%-45%)
Fernando "Marty" Martinez vs. Joe May in the 33rd district (35%-40%)
Bruce Roemmelt vs. Bob Marshall in the 13th district (30%-35%)
Carlos del Toro vs. Mark Cole in the 88th district (30%-35%)
Suzie Dixon Garner vs. Bill Carrico in the 5th district (30%)
Peggy Frank vs. Dave Nutter in the 7th district (25%-30%)

I'd say there is one outside chance -- maybe 30% -- for a Republican to beat a Democratic incumbent: Hank Giffin vs. Paula Miller.  I think that Chuck Caputo is pretty safe at this point.

Bottom line: As of this moment, there's a huge range on the House of Delegates races.  I'd say that Democrats could pick up anywhere from 3 to 9 House seats.  My best guess is 5-6 House seats gained (down from 7 a couple of weeks ago).  A gain of 6 seats for Democrats will leave Republicans hanging on with a 52-46-2 edge in the House of Delegates, compared to a 57-40-3 Republican advantage right now.  There's a large degree of uncertainty in these forecasts, though,  much more than with the State Senate races.  A lot depends on turnout, which is hard to forecast.  Anyway, these are my best guesses at the moment.

Comments



del Toro looking better (spotsylvania - 10/31/2007 10:27:44 AM)
Encouraging to see del Toro (88th) up from 25% in the previous forecast.


30% chance is low (S. Becker - 10/31/2007 10:42:13 AM)
You might want reconsider the 30% chance you gave Susie Garner of beating Bill Carrico. Right now this race is a toss-up. Susie has knocked on nearly 9,000 doors (allot in this district), while still holding down a full-time job, and Carrico has angered many people with his foolishness, including Republicans.

Call me optimistic, but I feel a change will happen!

 



I'm trying to be conservative here (Lowell - 10/31/2007 10:47:12 AM)
which is hard for a progressive, believe me! :)


Same here Lowell... (Isaac Sarver - 10/31/2007 10:55:01 AM)
I'd put Bill Thomas in the same league as Garner and Frank.
He's outraised Annie the past two reporting periods by substantial amounts, has an expansive ground game, and has made huge inroads in Wythe... the heart of her support.
:-) That and he's outspent her on voter contact nearly 1.5:1...


I added Thomas and placed his chances (Lowell - 10/31/2007 10:59:42 AM)
at 40%-45%.


Thanks Lowell... (Isaac Sarver - 10/31/2007 11:10:56 AM)
Trust me, you won't regret it.


I sure hope so. (Lowell - 10/31/2007 11:47:54 AM)
That would rock! :)


turnout (Alice Marshall - 10/31/2007 12:41:06 PM)
Turnout is easy to predict, just call the Registrar's office and ask how it compares to 2003. By now they know what sort of turnout to expect. They have scheduled how many voting machines to send to which precincts, organized their election officers and so forth.

Absentee ballots are a very accurate indicator of voter turnout. I know for certain they are running way ahead of average in Fairfax, it would be worth knowing what is happening in other parts of the state.



Nelson Coounty Registrar (Gordie - 10/31/2007 2:41:15 PM)
I Just got off the phone with her. As of this hour there are over 200 absentees and with that she is predicting between 50-60 percent turnout, which is unprecedented for this type of election. The turnout is usually around 30-35 percent. She said if the absentee voting continues it will probably be higher. For Webb's race we turnout over 59%. Indications from past work projects we may set a record for turnout in Nelson County.

There is  a tight sheriff's race and a 4 way south district supervisor race, which is generating interest. One sheriff signed 10 new voters in their 60's who have never voted before and they are D's.

With Watkins negative ads and mailers it is for certain that race is drawing people out. With negative ads, that usually turn outs Demcorats.

For a while it looked like Wat 51 and Connie 49 but with all that is happening, I am going with Lowell. It is now a 50-50 race and the last push will dertermine the outcome.

Without to much fan fair, I think the next couple of days with the campaigns agenda, it could even pass 50 percent in Connies favor.

The answer will be know at 7:30 on Nov.6th.



Probability (Begoner - 10/31/2007 3:22:58 PM)
Of the 20 races listed (one being the Giffin vs. Miller match-up), here are the relative probabilities for total wins:

0 wins: 0.0%
1 wins: 0.0%
2 wins: 0.0%
3 wins: 0.05%
4 wins: 0.26%
5 wins: 1.01%
6 wins: 2.8%
7 wins: 6.26%
8 wins: 11.14%
9 wins: 15.99%
10 wins: 18.43%
11 wins: 17.31%
12 wins: 13.05%
13 wins: 7.92%
14 wins: 3.8%
15 wins: 1.41%
16 wins: 0.39%
17 wins: 0.08%
18 wins: 0.01%
19 wins: 0.0%
20 wins: 0.0%

According to your numbers, this translates into 78.4% chance for Democrats to gain 8 or more seats.



Interesting, (Lowell - 10/31/2007 3:26:33 PM)
I think a pickup of 8 seats would be extraordinary, but I'll take your odds! :)