I'd say from the way things look, and everything I saw this weekend, that your predictions are on target.  What a different world we'll wake up to find next Wednesday!

I hope Chuck Colgan can hold on.  He was the first Democrat I had representing me in the legislature. 

Ut Prosim
Matusleo

We know that the Post fumbled the JMDD/Chap story.  The Fairfax Times story about this on its website is more thorough and I think more favorable to Chap.  http://www.fairfaxti...  Of course what appears in the print edition (which is what people mainly read) may differ.  But it looks like she has to endure some bad print coverage right before the election -- not good for her.

I would love for there to be a wave, but it seems like all the races are way too close for that to happen. I'm just hoping for the four seats we need to take the Senate.

There can still be a wave even if many of the races are close.  It just requires that we Dems WIN the majority of those close races.  This happened last November when Dems won all close races in the Senate in Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania, and of course Virginia.  (I'm not necessarily predicting a wave, but I do think Dems take the Senate and pick up 5-6 in the House)!

Disclaimer: I volunteered for Chap's 2nd House of Delegates campaign and his Lt. Gov campaign, nothing major (back to school night, standing at the polling places, etc) but I have supported and continue to support Chap.

Disclaimer2: Back in 2000 I voted in the Republican primary for John McCain so I'm on both Republican and Democratic mailing lists.

What has made me nervous about this campaign is the sheer volume of negative mailers I have received from Jeanmarie.  They may be targeted mailers that I'm only receiving because I'm a "republican" (see Disclaimer2) but I don't think so.  I'm also nervous about the Teachers endorsing Jeanmarie - I think a bunch of "soccer mom" types just vote for whatever the Teachers Union says because kids education is their most important issue.  I have not seen any polling but my gut says tossup here.

That said - my gut also said tossup in the last Chap vs. Rust race and Chap won handily.

I hope you're right - we need to win the Senate this year.  I hear rumblings that George Allen may run for governor in 2009 and Allen vs. Deeds would be a real gunfight but Allen would have an edge, and I don't know our odds of picking up the House of Delegates in 2009 with Allen at the top of the ticket.  We absolutely *MUST* get control of one of the three branches before the redistricting, and the Senate is the easiest of the three I think.  I don't see us winning the Senate without defeating Jeanmarie.

-Fred

as long as Chap's voters turn out.

Candidates for the race for the 68th House seat debated last night. No prediction in this race yet? Katherine Waddell (I) incumbant faces Manoli Loupassi (R) with (I) Bill Grogan in the race as well. My guess is you would be placing this either under tossup or outside pickups by Republicans?

n/t

I am even more positive on sweeping victory than you are, I think Schultz will win the 27th more easily than Oleszek will win the 36th (and I think both will win).

I am less optimistic about Colgan (might be closer to a toss up than we want), but I think we will get some pleasant surprises from the Western Exburbs.  I think both Roemmelt and Day may win!  I am also confident that Rishell will defeat Miller quite safely.  She was neck and neck in a special election last year.  She has made more friends and he has burned more bridges since then.  The gotcha is the turnout...  if fewer people turn out this year, her voters may be under-represented.

I am more worried about Prince William County elections now - Riley is a long shot, but I am hoping; and Pandak needs to win because Stewart is really bat-shit crazy.

Rishell will win?  I'd do a happy dance if that happened, but I must admit that prediction comes from left field.

I did some calls tonight for Colgan at his headquarters and will do more every day as time permits.

If Bruce beats Bob, then I'd sell tickets to my happy dance.  Who wants some?

are a lot of close races there that are very hard to call...