Any RKers live in the first (Dianne?)?

Any potential candidates? If not, can we find one in the near future?

I'd be more than willing to volunteer/help out the weekends of: this weekend (October 27, 28), November 10 - 12, November 17 - 18, December 1 - 2, and then December 8 - 11. I'm in Alexandria, but a decent portion of this district is in the PWC/Stafford exurbs, so I could easily help out down there.

I don't have a good feel for where most of the population density in this district is, but I assume it's end-weighted in the DC exurbs/Fredericksburg and then down in the Hampton Roads areas. It seems to me we would need to find a candidate from one of those two areas.

I'd love to spark a conversation on this -- how many Democratic votes do we think we'd need to find/turn out to win this race, assuming we field a good candidate?

Has Shawn made a decision on this? 

I have the impression that the GOP strength is in the Hampton Roads area which is dominated by the military (the "I love Jet Noise" ribbons on cars is one indication) and the shipyard.  I live in the Fredericksburg area but I get temporarily assigned  to that area in the Fall and live in Newport News for 3 weeks that overlaps election day.

If Jo Ann Davis' widower gets the nod, it can be an emotionally complex campaign.  How does one punch through a "passing the torch" dramatic narrative without looking like a cynical jerk?  Or, in other words, conduct a Democratic campaign that uses GOP tactics? 

Maintaining momentum from November 6 to December 11 is going to be a tall order and I don't recall a situation that has ever occurred like this that could serve as a prototype for this special election.  Personally, I'd hate to see Davis' replacement run un-opposed to serve out a year but would really regret a distraction from what needs to be done on the State level. 

 

Results from 2006:

Senate
Allen 54.44%
Webb 44.24%

Marriage Amendment
YES 59.98%
NO 40.02%

House
Davis 62.96%
O'Donnell 35.48%

Looking specifically at this regionally, just at the House race from 2006.

Tidewater/Hampton Roads Media Market:
Gloucester, James City, Mathews, York, Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson and Williamsburg.

45.2% of votes cast in the district
Davis 63.8%
O'Donnell 34.7%

Richmond Media Market:
Caroline, Essex, King & Queen, King William, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northumberland, and Richmond.

13.8% of votes cast in the district
Davis 66.4%
O'Donnell 32.5%

Northern Virginia Media Market:
Fauquier, King George, Prince William, Richmond, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Fredericksburg.

38.9% of votes cast in the district
Davis 61.0%
O'Donnell 37.3%

Tough nut to crack.  I'll note though that O'Donnell significantly underperformed Webb, the NO vote, and Kerry.

Richmond in the Northern Virginia media market.  Numbers are still correct.

No doubt this would take some work, but we're talking about a low turnout election in December.

Only SD-28 appears to be wholly within CD-10; that's the Pollard v. Stuart race. Parts of SDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 17, 27, 29, and 36 (can't tell exactly about those last two) all appear to be part of CD-1. Since by my crack math skillz there would need to be approx. 3.64 full SDs per CD, it looks like the CD is made mostly of SD-28 and then most of SDs 1 and 3, and a good deal of 2 and 4.

It looks like the best strategy, then, is to really work the GOTV effort in SD-28 for Albert Pollard and then try and use that infrastructure for the 12/11 election. The SD-1 GOTV effort for John Miller against crazy Ms. Stall will also be a big component; we would need to really crank up GOTV in SD-2.

SDs 1, 2, 6, 17, 27, 28, 29, and 36 are all potentially going blue on November 6 -- and only SDs 3 and 4 involve Republicans with no SD opposition -- this does not look to me like a lost cause by any means.

I'll take a look at overlap between competitive state House races and CD10 later.

Webb did fare well in the Prince William County part of the district.

Did well in all of the district, when you compare him to O'Donnell.  Webb got 59% in Williamsburg and 46% in James City County.  O'Donnell got only 47% in Williamsburg and 36% in James City County.

Back in 2003 Carl Stephen Wolfe II of Westmoreland County was considering a run against Joann Davis.  He spoke at a Spotsylvania Democratic Committee meeting and I was impressed with him.  But he seems to have disappeared (though I see he's a donor to the Pollard campaign).  How about Edd Houck?  He's very well known in Virginia.

The question is, does he actually live in CD-1 or CD-7? And would he even be interested in running for Congress?

is even a Central Committee member for the 1st CD.  Don't know if he'd be willing to run but he sure is campaigning like mad for his Senate seat.

Or will there be a primary or something like it?

If nine Republicans run and one Democrat runs, guess who will win . . .

Of course, if a Democrat does that they'll probably only have a year in office, because the Republicans would then unite behind a single candidate and win the seat back in 2008.

Still, might be fun . . .

There will be caucuses, which may take the form of a "firehouse primary".  State law requires that the party nomination processes take place at least 30 days before the special election, which would be the weekend after the November general election.

State law also requires that the special election take place at least 60 days before the presidential primary in February.  Between those two limits, the December 11 date was pretty much preordained.

Edd Houck would make a terrific candidate.  He is well liked and respected by just about everybody.  He could get the independent and some cross over vote as well.

Somebody talk him into it. 

Just think how, after the election, all the state Democrats,/b> could unite behind Edd and work to deliver this seat to a Democrat. Talk about getting national attention in Virginia... I wouldn't doubt that there would be help from the national party and other states.