Democrat Timothy M. Kaine has taken a narrow lead in Virginia's governor's race, buoyed by newfound strength in Northern Virginia's outer suburbs and an electorate turned off by what it considers the negative tone of his Republican opponent, according to a new Washington Post poll..."This is still a very, very close race. It's going to be a very late night on election night," said Kaine spokesman Mo Elleithee. "We feel very good about the momentum we are seeing. This confirms that people are not responding well to the slash-and-burn campaign that Jerry Kilgore is running."
This poll shows a 7% gain over results generated from surveys of likely voters in the past Washington Post poll conducted Sept. 6-9. Kaine has made gains by appealing to suburban voters and Democratic Party loyalists, while Kilgore?s base continues to be voters who are white and live in rural areas.
Most notable is the Kilgore death penalty advertisements have significantly altered the campaign and have generated interest and passion about the campaign that had not existed at the time of the September poll. The poll shows that a majority of Virginians still support the death penalty, but they concluded by a 2/3 margin that Kilgore is conducting an overwhelmingly negative campaign and that went too far with those advertisements, showing (by 55%) he would say anything to get elected.
"Kilgore has not conducted himself during the campaign in a way that I would like him to conduct himself," said Kate Spears, 41, a federal worker in Springfield who calls herself an independent. "It's the ads that he's run. It's the misleading. It's the attacking.""I had a visceral reaction to Kilgore's ads," said Tom Evans, 55, a health care consultant from McLean who describes himself as a Republican and says he is voting for Kaine. "Take all that together, it just gives me a bad feeling."
Ironically, the Washington Post also notes that Kilgore's past efforts to bring about political advertising integrity laws have come to haunt him, as he pursues a relentlessly negative advertising campaign filled with dishonest claims:
As attorney general, Kilgore pushed for the state's "Stand By Your Ad" law, which requires candidates to appear in all their ads, acknowledging that they approved them. The poll results and interviews with voters suggest that the requirement has hurt Kilgore.
However, for Kaine, the stakes are still very tight. Win figures from Mark Warner?s last election show that Kaine needs to increase his polling lead to 5% to ensure a win in the election. Critical perception elements include:
? Voters have accepted Kilgore?s contention that he will reduce taxes, which is the leading voter concern.
? Other following concerns are (in order of priority) education and state budget management
? Kaine is accepted as the better candidate for education
? Kaine most of the surveyed respondents perceive that Kaine is running an honest campaign and unlike Kilgore ?won?t say anything? to get elected
? A majority of respondents felt that Kaine was running a positive campaign
? Voters also support Kaine's plan to allow local control over development as a tool for road capacity management.
? At the same time, voters also support Kilgore's plan for local tax referendums to raise money for road projects.
? Most independents believe Kaine's promise to enforce the death penalty.
Kaine's most critical advantage, the article concludes, is that more voters percieve Kilgore as "too conservative" instead of Kaine as "too liberal."
This poll shows that it's critically important that supporters continue to work hard to guarantee every possible vote for Kaine over the next nine days. This means, in particular, driving home the real story about Kaine's economic plan and making undecided voters aware just how Kilgore's local transportation referendum proposal does not make sense (how will outer suburban drivers ever benefit from widening I-66 if Arlington refuses to take on the financial burden for a road project that fails to significantly benefit the local community, for instance). Additionally, now is the time is to drive home the positive message that Kaine brings: that only Tim Kaine will sustain the prosperity started under Warner, that Kaine will bring values and good management practices into governance, and that Kaine is the only candidate running a campaign that reflects a spirit of honesty, accountibility, and integrity.