Prince William County Board Destroying County's Housing Market?

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/5/2007 8:50:10 AM

According to a Prince William real estate agent quoted in today's Washington Post, "The county's anti-illegal immigrant measures...have accelerated the collapse of the real estate market in the minority community.'"  The article also points out that, "Regardless of one's views on immigration...simple arithmetic dictates that if a lot of residents leave the county, the housing meltdown will only worsen."  Check this out:

Many distressed properties are in Zip codes with high concentrations of Latino residents. One county resident told supervisors at a board meeting this week that a house up for auction on her street didn't draw a single bidder, despite an opening price of $259,000. The house used to be worth $400,000, she told the board.

Ouch.  And then there's this:

That combination -- an excess of housing and new anti-illegal immigrant policies -- is likely to exacerbate the county's weak real estate market, agents and lenders say. Regardless of one's views on immigration, they say, simple arithmetic dictates that if a lot of residents leave the county, the housing meltdown will only worsen.

So there you have it: the anti-illegal immigrant rhetoric by Prince William's Republican-controlled county board (note, they've actually taken no real action on immigration, just spewed a great deal of hot air) is fueling a collapse in the county's housing market.  Which means that if you're a homeowner in Prince William county, your home value is being hurt right now, and potentially far worse in coming months and years, by the Republican county board's foolishness.  And the stupidest thing about it is that the board knows it has no money -- especially with the state's budget crunch and resultant cuts to local law enforcement budgets -- to do any of the things it's talking about (unless it's willing to raise taxes sharply, which it isn't).  Heckuva job, huh?


Comments



Bizarre Market (snolan - 10/5/2007 9:04:56 AM)
It is scary to me that while we have dropping property values and too much housing in the high end market, we have an affordable housing shortage such that my niece needs to share rent with three other college-aged young adults trying to get a start on their own lives.  They are annoying their neighbors because they have three cars to park in their town home community which really only has room for about 1.7 cars per town house.

The anti-immigrant posturing (because that's all it really is) has really pissed off the people I've been canvassing in and around Manassas.  Thank goodness for the "Help Save Manassas" bigots - because they've stirred up the community into actually voting (this is usually the low turnout election of the four year cycle) and there is a swelling backlash against their clearly racist and hypocritical posturing.  We should have pretty good turnout.  Perhaps we'll have a better board in part (sadly - too many supervisors are unchallenged this election).



Upside to lower housing prices. (loboforestal - 10/5/2007 9:09:52 AM)
More people can afford housing with lower prices.  Housing was a bubble fueled by subprime loans and speculators.  I guess we're in the blame phase of a bursting bubble.  I don't think there's enough fingers on hand to point at who's at fault : speculators, real estate agents, investors, banks, unqualified buyers, developers, etc. etc.  Real estate agents (or Realtors) need to look long and hard in the mirror before they start blaming government.  PW is not the jurisdiction facing an oversupply of poorly built housing priced too high.  Bottom line is real estate is overvalued and faces more pain to bring it into equilibrium. 


Maybe, but this isn't the way to bring it into (Lowell - 10/5/2007 9:14:02 AM)
"equilibrium."  Plus, try telling that to current homeowners in Prince William county who may have taken out home equity loans, or perhaps were simply counting on their homes as a key non-liquid asset for future resale, retirement, college education for their kids, etc.


Winners and losers. (loboforestal - 10/5/2007 9:35:14 AM)
Yes, people who used their house as an ATM or who bought recently expecting a quick run up to untold riches are in trouble: just like people who bought tulip bulbs and dotcom stocks.  There are losers in this drama.

Winners are people who rent or have saved up enough for a 20% down payment and can wait until prices drop even more.

It's tough to tell that to people upside down on their house but they weren't listening when their home was going up 20% a year.  Plenty of people were preaching caution, but none of them were Realtors and developers.

If government really wants to fix housing, they can get rid of the mortgage interest deductablility.  Government needs to encourage savings and not debt.



Actually, it's only a subset of people who (Lowell - 10/5/2007 10:38:44 AM)
"used their house asn an ATM."  Also, I'd point out that many of the people who appear to be leaving, or considering leaving, Prince William county due to the Republican-controlled County Board's anti-illegal-immigrant rhetoric are renters, not necessarily owners.  Which means that rental prices are likely to be under downward pressure as well.


News8 just covered this same story (snolan - 10/5/2007 1:19:26 PM)
It was terse sound-bite headline reading, but they just covered exactly the same points.  Their site lists the story as having come out at 11:05 this morning, but I can't pull it up the text (their website is always a bit broken):

"Immigrant Crackdown Could Further Weaken Housing Market"

"The growing restrictions and crackdowns on immigrants in Prince William County have many feeling unwelcome - and experts say that could be bad for an already weak housing market."

Those are the key quotes...



Question (Gordie - 10/5/2007 3:34:24 PM)
As everyone knows there is a short fall in the budget of $641 million, just what will the impact be in state revenue when communities continue to act stupid such as Prince William County. I would expect the state income will fall and the short fall will certainly increase.


Falling property values and a ruined economy (Lowell - 10/5/2007 3:36:08 PM)
will help absolutely nobody. 


Real price decline likely (loboforestal - 10/5/2007 4:13:46 PM)
Housing is overvalued and a return to normal is likely and desirable.  People can not afford houses at current prices.

Click to see full sized in new window.



Illegal (Brian Kirwin - 10/5/2007 4:21:39 PM)
I think the most dispicable thing about this post is how it equates "illegal immigrants" with "latinos" interchangibly.

Racism from the left is tolerated, I guess.

By the way, is the point of this that illegal aliens used to be buying $400,000 homes?



You guys are hilarious (Lowell - 10/5/2007 4:52:05 PM)
n/t


The point of your post is to demonstrate (Lowell - 10/5/2007 4:58:17 PM)
utter ignorance of economics as well as the usual Republican attempt to tar others with their own failings.


A question (humanfont - 10/5/2007 10:58:28 PM)
How can you be so opposed to increased legal immigration thorugh programs such as H-1B, but at the same time supporting policies that embrace illegal immigrants?  Surely if documented legal foreign workers are depressing wages; undocumented illegal immigrants with out any workforce protections are thousands of times worse.


H-1B visas have their place (Lowell - 10/6/2007 5:33:33 AM)
in proper numbers and in certain industries.  The overall issue is how many people we allow into the country for particular reasons.  I am certainly not for letting unlimited numbers of people into the country, but if we're going to have "free trade" agreements which allow for the relatively unconstrained flow of capital, as well as sharply different economic conditions and growth rates in neighboring countries, it shouldn't exactly be surprising that we're going to see large-scale labor migration.  This is the reality of our global economy; the question is how, as a nation, do we deal with it?  The danger of addressing national and international issues like this one at a local level can be seen in the experience of other American towns that have tried what Prince William county has been talking about -- with disastrous results.


On H-1B vias, many have expressed concern (Lowell - 10/6/2007 5:37:11 AM)
over the situation in the telecommunications industry.  This is obviously a highly controversial and politicized subject, as we saw for instance in the U.S. Senate primary last year in Virginia.


H-1B is a non-immigrant visa. (loboforestal - 10/6/2007 12:06:20 PM)
The H-1B visa is a guest worker visa, not an immigration visa.  The visa endentures a foreign worker to a specific company for up to 6 years.  Critics complain that it's a subsidy for many already wealthy companies who shun the costs of training available American workers and use it as a wage suppression tool.  Most labor organizations don't want guest workers. With stagnant wages, it's not clear there's a great labor shortage that "requires" guest workers.

Many overservers have seperate views on non-immigrant guest worker policies and what immigration levels and policies should be.  Many special interests demagouge the issues and distort the threats and benefits of immigration and advocate solutions ranging from open borders to closed borders.  A sensible, moderate solution is possible, but it will take some clear thinking and acting to get there.



A new low (truthseeker - 10/6/2007 7:41:32 AM)
Lowell this is a new low even for you

The market was overheated and screamed for a correction. 

The collapse in the housing market is also partly because people were able to get loans who had no business getting loans and are now foreclosing. 

Now, since you posted this left-wing stuff I have no choice but to post a response.  My new rule is to use the same rhetoric that the host of a blog uses.

Property values have gone down in PW because of the illegal aliens.  If they leave property values will actually increase.  One of my friends moms is trying to sell her house but is having trouble because the other properties in the neighborhood are not being taken care of, there are cars parked on the grass and the street. 



"a new low even for you" (Lowell - 10/6/2007 7:43:41 AM)
Ad hominem attacks will get you everywhere!  Ha.

Seriously, though, if you can repeal the laws of economics, let us all know.  Until then, stop coming on here and spewing personal insults and nonsense.



I give up (truthseeker - 10/6/2007 9:03:41 AM)
Its impossible to debate when you see everything through such a liberal prizim. 

Your tactics are so elementary.  Spew and then ignore or degrade ANYTHING that does not present the Lowell Gospel.



By the way, this diary was commentary (Lowell - 10/6/2007 9:08:36 AM)
on a Washington Post story. Please tell us all what in that story was inaccurate.


This is why I don't trust the Republicans on immigration (jiacinto - 10/6/2007 11:48:34 AM)
They just played upon racial sympathies of the voters, while quietly telling their supports in the construction, housing, landscaping, and restaurant business that they will quietly "look the other way". I liked what the PW County Board of Supervisors originally proposed. At the very least I do hope that the police start checking the immigration status of people they arrest.